This week, I'm going to examine some players who stole fewer bases in 2025 compared to 2024. The causes varied, and the chances of a rebound seem mixed.
Here are the regular players (min. of 300 PA in both 2024 and 2025) who saw their stolen base total drop by 10 or more:
| Name | '24 PA | '24 SB | '25 PA | '25 SB | Age | '25 OPS | Decline | % of '24 |
| Shohei Ohtani | 731 | 59 | 727 | 20 | 30 | 1.014 | -39 | 34% |
| Elly De La Cruz | 696 | 67 | 699 | 37 | 23 | .777 | -30 | 55% |
| Brice Turang | 619 | 50 | 659 | 24 | 25 | .794 | -26 | 48% |
| Spencer Steer | 656 | 25 | 568 | 7 | 27 | .723 | -18 | 28% |
| Jacob Young | 521 | 33 | 364 | 15 | 25 | .583 | -18 | 45% |
| Andres Gimenez | 633 | 30 | 369 | 12 | 26 | .598 | -18 | 40% |
| Jackson Merrill | 593 | 16 | 483 | 1 | 22 | .774 | -15 | 6% |
| Luis Rengifo | 304 | 24 | 541 | 10 | 28 | .622 | -14 | 42% |
| Maikel Garcia | 626 | 37 | 666 | 23 | 25 | .800 | -14 | 62% |
| Jonathan India | 637 | 13 | 567 | 0 | 28 | .669 | -13 | 0% |
| Brenton Doyle | 603 | 30 | 538 | 18 | 27 | .651 | -12 | 60% |
| Jose Altuve | 682 | 22 | 654 | 10 | 35 | .771 | -12 | 45% |
| Brandon Marsh | 476 | 19 | 425 | 7 | 27 | .785 | -12 | 37% |
| Seiya Suzuki | 585 | 16 | 651 | 5 | 30 | .804 | -11 | 31% |
| Anthony Volpe | 689 | 28 | 596 | 18 | 24 | .663 | -10 | 64% |
| Jo Adell | 451 | 15 | 573 | 5 | 26 | .778 | -10 | 33% |
| Cedric Mullins | 499 | 32 | 498 | 22 | 30 | .690 | -10 | 69% |
| Jarren Duran | 735 | 34 | 696 | 24 | 28 | .774 | -10 |
This week, I'm going to examine some players who stole fewer bases in 2025 compared to 2024. The causes varied, and the chances of a rebound seem mixed.
Here are the regular players (min. of 300 PA in both 2024 and 2025) who saw their stolen base total drop by 10 or more:
| Name | '24 PA | '24 SB | '25 PA | '25 SB | Age | '25 OPS | Decline | % of '24 |
| Shohei Ohtani | 731 | 59 | 727 | 20 | 30 | 1.014 | -39 | 34% |
| Elly De La Cruz | 696 | 67 | 699 | 37 | 23 | .777 | -30 | 55% |
| Brice Turang | 619 | 50 | 659 | 24 | 25 | .794 | -26 | 48% |
| Spencer Steer | 656 | 25 | 568 | 7 | 27 | .723 | -18 | 28% |
| Jacob Young | 521 | 33 | 364 | 15 | 25 | .583 | -18 | 45% |
| Andres Gimenez | 633 | 30 | 369 | 12 | 26 | .598 | -18 | 40% |
| Jackson Merrill | 593 | 16 | 483 | 1 | 22 | .774 | -15 | 6% |
| Luis Rengifo | 304 | 24 | 541 | 10 | 28 | .622 | -14 | 42% |
| Maikel Garcia | 626 | 37 | 666 | 23 | 25 | .800 | -14 | 62% |
| Jonathan India | 637 | 13 | 567 | 0 | 28 | .669 | -13 | 0% |
| Brenton Doyle | 603 | 30 | 538 | 18 | 27 | .651 | -12 | 60% |
| Jose Altuve | 682 | 22 | 654 | 10 | 35 | .771 | -12 | 45% |
| Brandon Marsh | 476 | 19 | 425 | 7 | 27 | .785 | -12 | 37% |
| Seiya Suzuki | 585 | 16 | 651 | 5 | 30 | .804 | -11 | 31% |
| Anthony Volpe | 689 | 28 | 596 | 18 | 24 | .663 | -10 | 64% |
| Jo Adell | 451 | 15 | 573 | 5 | 26 | .778 | -10 | 33% |
| Cedric Mullins | 499 | 32 | 498 | 22 | 30 | .690 | -10 | 69% |
| Jarren Duran | 735 | 34 | 696 | 24 | 28 | .774 | -10 | 71% |
Shohei Ohtani: The drop was no surprise, with Ohtani not wanting to injure himself while recovering from Tommy John surgery. Dodgers general manager Brandon Gomes came out and said so last November:
Gomes was more direct about one thing involving Ohtani: A year after becoming the first player ever with more than 50 home runs (54) and 50 stolen bases (59) in the same season, Ohtani probably won't be as aggressive on the bases again in 2025.
"I have a hunch," Gomes quipped. "I don't want to count him out because I don't ever bet against Shohei."
I'm going to pencil in Ohtani for 20 SB again, and any bonus will be great.
Elly De La Cruz: I found it a little funny that everyone was surprised about Cruz's quad injury…in November. Over at FanGraphs, I found out about the May injury in August.
According to Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati, De La Cruz has been managing a quadriceps injury, which could explain his relative lack of activity as a baserunner in recent weeks. De La Cruz is expected to keep playing on an everyday basis as the Reds battle for a wild-card spot heading into September, and while he may continue to be selective with his steal attempts, fantasy managers should eventually expect some improvement with his production as a hitter.
In his first 53 games, he stole 17 bases. In the next 51, he stole 10. A fantasy manager can hope Cruz gets back to stealing once he's healthy.
Brice Turang: While Turang lost a bit of speed with his Sprint speed down 0.4 ft/s, the main cause for his decline is that he became a better hitter. His home runs jumped from seven to 18, and his OPS climbed from .665 to .794. Because of the improvement, he quit leading off and hit in the second, third and fifth spots. In these instances, runners were on base ahead of him, limiting his stolen base options.
Spencer Steer: While Steer didn't change, his manager did. Under new manager Tito Francona, the Reds ran about half as often as they did in 2024:
Season | SB |
|---|---|
2023 | 190 |
2024 | 207 |
2025 | 105 |
New manager, new running philosophy.
Jacob Young and Andres Gimenez: These two struggled at the plate (sub-.600 OPS) and their playing time got limited. It's tough to count on stolen bases from bad hitters.
Jackson Merrill: Merrill dealt with several injuries last season (hamstring, concussion, ankle) and disappointed compared to his 2024 rookie season. Before going on the injured list the first time, he posted a 1.091 OPS with one stolen base (the only one he would steal all season). Between the hamstring and an ankle injury, he had a .687 OPS. After coming back in September, he posted a .946 OPS over that last month. If healthy, he could be in for a big rebound.
Luis Rengifo and Jo Adell: After running wild in 2024, the entire Angels team took a step back in 2025:
Season | SB |
|---|---|
2023 | 88 |
2024 | 133 |
2025 | 72 |
Old manager, new running philosophy.
Maikel Garcia: In 2024, 27 of his stolen bases came while leading off. With the addition of Jonathan India, Garcia moved down to the third to fifth spots, where he stole less frequently.
Jonathan India: I believe he's broken and can't steal a base, especially with his previous plantar fasciitis injury:
| Date | Team | Injury |
|---|---|---|
| 2021-04-30 | Reds | placed on 10-day IL with undisclosed injury |
| 2021-07-05 | Reds | sore right ankle (DTD) |
| 2022-04-19 | Reds | placed on 10-day IL with strained right hamstring |
| 2022-05-01 | Reds | placed on 10-day IL with tightness in right hamstring |
| 2022-06-26 | Reds | right hand injury (DTD) |
| 2022-07-24 | Reds | left thigh injury (DTD) |
| 2022-10-05 | Reds | foot injury (out for season) |
| 2023-07-30 | Reds | placed on 10-day IL with plantar fasciitis in left foot |
| 2024-04-08 | Reds | bruised left leg (DTD) |
| 2024-04-21 | Reds | illness (DTD) |
| 2024-05-15 | Reds | migraine headache (DTD) |
| 2024-07-09 | Reds | bruised left knee (DTD) |
| 2025-05-18 | Royals | knee injury (DTD) |
| 2025-05-25 | Royals | illness (DTD) |
| 2025-06-14 | Royals | shoulder injury (DTD) |
| 2025-07-30 | Royals | sore shoulder (DTD) |
| 2025-09-01 | Royals | placed on 10-day IL with sprained left wrist |
Brenton Doyle: His opportunities declined as he struggled at the plate, as his on-base rate dropped from .317 to .274. He moved off the lead-off spot by mid-May, giving him fewer opportunities. I could see the number bouncing back.
Jose Altuve: From 2018 to 2024 (excluding 2020), Altuve averaged 13 steals per season. In 2025, he stole 10 bases. His 2024 number is the outlier. I'm going to give the 36-year-old a projection of 12 SB.
Brandon Marsh: He dealt with an early-season knee injury but kept stealing once back. In the entire second half, he only attempted two steals. I couldn't find a red flag besides him getting moved to the middle of the Phillies lineup, and possibly there were too many slow runners ahead of him.
Seiya Suzuki: I'm not sure what changed besides 2024 being an up year and 2025 being a little on the down side:
Season | SB |
|---|---|
2022 | 9 |
2023 | 6 |
2024 | 16 |
2025 | 5 |
Anthony Volpe: He struggled to get on base (.272 OBP) and has seen his stolen base success rate drop each season, going from 83 percent to 80 to 69. The team gave him the red light, with 17 attempts in the first half and just nine in the second.
Cedric Mullins: This is the second time in the last four seasons that Mullins saw a major drop in steal (from 34 to 19, back up to 32 and then down to 22). He's now a free agent so his role won't be known until he signs. Editor's note: Mullins has since signed with the Rays. We currently project him to start against righties but not against lefties.
Jarren Duran: Just normal variation seems to explain several of these guys who declined by 10 stolen bases. For Duran, he went from 24 steals to 34, then back down to 24. He stole 10 bases in March and April and never more than four in any given month after that point.
