Farm Futures: Southern League Pitchers Roundup

Our tour of the minor leagues continues this week with a trip to the Southern League to look at what some notable Double-A pitchers have been up to over the first seven weeks of the season. There are some well-known high-upside arms in this league, and there is also a seemingly never-ending pipeline of future back-end starters. The prospects are listed in approximate order of their value in dynasty leagues.

Josh Hader, LHP, Biloxi (Brewers): 0.79 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 59:16 K:BB in 45.2 IP.

His pitch count has been between 83 and 89 pitches in all nine of his starts this season, with his innings ranging from four to six. The four-inning outings are the ones people are concerned about, but if he's through six innings without reaching 90 pitches, that's right in line with what most top pitching prospects are able to accomplish on their best nights. He has picked up right where he left off last year at Double-A and in the Arizona Fall League, showcasing a deadly mid-90s fastball with late sinking action and a plus curveball that plays perfectly off the heater.

The big question in the Brewers' think tank right now is whether or not Hader has what it takes to jump Triple-A and go straight to the big leagues. This decision is separate from the inevitable decision the team will need to make about whether or not he's a starter or a reliever long term. Given where the Brewers are as an organization and the fact that Hader has yet to struggle as a starter, he will be given the chance to prove he can stick in the rotation, it's just a matter of where his next stop will be. The Brewers' Triple-A affiliate is located in Colorado Springs, and those unsavory conditions have been partly responsible for fellow top prospect Jorge Lopez struggling to the tune of a 6.11 ERA and 1.95 WHIP. Hader has 84.1 innings under his belt at Double-A Biloxi and another 85.1 innings at the Astros' Double-A affiliate, so it's probably time to give him a bit of a challenge.

There seems to be at least a 50 percent chance he'll be up and in the big league rotation before August, but there's also a legitimate chance, probably 20-30 percent, that he doesn't pitch in the big leagues at all this season, which means stashing him takes a lot of confidence and a hint of desperation. Few pitchers in the minors have Hader's per-start upside once he reaches the majors, so he makes for an appealing stash for those in deeper leagues who are in the bottom half of the standings and hoping for a miracle. His long-term floor is basically Andrew Miller.

Amir Garrett, LHP, Pensacola (Reds): 1.49 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 54:17 K:BB in 54.1 IP.

It wouldn't be that hard to argue that Garrett has been even more impressive than Hader, even though Hader has slightly better numbers. Garrett has been able to log between six and 6.2 innings in eight of his nine starts, and his pitch count has ranged from 79 to 101, throwing at least 95 pitches in each of his last four starts.

Everyone talks about Garrett's athleticism as a former basketball player at St. John's, but the first thing that stands out when watching him is his size. He's a very muscular six-foot-five, and his body is essentially the prototype for a front-end starter who can log 220 innings annually. A double-plus fastball highlights the repertoire, and he also offers a slider that could be a plus pitch in time and a changeup that he has been using as an out pitch effectively of late. His command is not elite by any means, but he has enough polish to have a comfortable floor as a No. 3 starter in the big leagues.

The Reds have gone one level at a time with Garrett so far, meaning he may stay at Double-A for a bit longer than his dynasty league owners would like. He's also behind Cody Reed and Robert Stephenson in the pecking order to join the big league rotation on a permanent basis, so it's very hard to envision a scenario where he gets to the majors before 2017. Of course, that means he'll probably be a top-10 pitching prospect heading into next year, as his prospect eligibility should remain intact, so his trade value in dynasty leagues should only continue to creep up.

Taylor Guerrieri, RHP, Montgomery (Rays): 4.24 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 29:20 K:BB in 46.2 IP.

It's been a rough return trip to the Southern League for Guerrieri, who managed a 1.50 ERA and 28:8 K:BB in 36 innings with Montgomery to finish off 2015. It's possible he's just dealing with fatigue after logging his first full season since Tommy John surgery in July 2013, but regardless it's not the type of start his dynasty league owners were expecting. It's debatable as to whether or not he's still a top-100 prospect, so in shallower formats it's justifiable to move on, but in deeper leagues he has too much long-term upside to let nine mediocre starts rule the day.

Jacob Faria, RHP, Montgomery (Rays): 4.41 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 57:28 K:BB in 51 IP.

Faria had a higher floor than Guerrieri before the season, but the narrative that Guerrieri has the higher ceiling still holds, despite the fact that their numbers tell a different story through nine starts in 2016. Faria's plus fastball and plus changeup are enough for him to dominate Double-A hitters at times, but his curveball is not yet good enough to profile as the third pitch of a No. 3 starter in the big leagues, and his command leaves quite a bit to be desired. There's a No. 4 starter here if his development continues on this track, and with a jump up in command or an improved curveball, that No. 3 ceiling would start to come into focus.

Sean Newcomb, LHP, Mississippi (Braves): 3.91 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 46:29 K:BB in 46 IP.

The mantra with Newcomb has been more pessimistic on RotoWire than at other places for quite a while now, and he still hasn't fixed his glaring control issues. He has more walks than strikeouts in two of his nine starts this year and has issued three or more free passes in six starts. He is still relatively inexperienced in professional baseball, with less than 200 innings under his belt since he was drafted in 2014, so there's time for him to fix a lot of what ails him. However, the fear has to be that by cutting down on his walks he may also cut down on his strikeouts to the point where the ceiling everyone has been dreaming on starts to fade.

At this current clip, Newcomb won't reach the majors this year, and if the Braves push him aggressively before he makes the necessary improvements, there could be Archie Bradley-level struggles that would make him a net negative on any fantasy roster in 2016. Long term there is at least a 50/50 shot that he ends up in a bullpen, but at this point the window to cash in on the hype of him being a borderline top-25 prospect may have closed.

Duane Underwood, RHP, Tennessee (Cubs): 4.91 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 15:12 K:BB in 22 IP.

Underwood missed the first three weeks of the season with elbow stiffness, and it has not been smooth sailing since he joined the Smokies' rotation. As with Guerrieri, it's too soon to panic, but the K:BB certainly doesn't look pretty. He remains the top pitching prospect in the Cubs' system, in large part because he's pitching at Double-A, and the majority of their high-upside arms are eons away from the big leagues.

Edwin Diaz, RHP, Jackson (Mariners): 2.57 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 48:5 K:BB in 35 IP.

Diaz was transferred from starter to reliever earlier this month, much to the dismay of his dynasty league owners. While this seemingly rules out Diaz contributing as a starter in 2016 or 2017, he could still be transitioned back into that role down the line. The move also pushes up his ETA to sometime this season, provided he continues to thrive in the role.

2/2 Diaz was not getting to MLB anytime in the next season and a half or more as a starter. Could be up in '16 as reliever.

— Jason A. Churchill (@ProspectInsider) May 11, 2016

He has 11 strikeouts in seven shutout innings so far as a reliever and has not yet issued a walk in that role, so it should be a matter of weeks before he's pitching out of the bullpen at Triple-A, which would set him up to join the big league bullpen in the second half. If Diaz was still on the starting pitcher track, he'd be right up there with Hader and Garrett as one of the three most appealing pitching prospects in the league, but now that his development as a starter has stalled, he needs to be discounted appropriately.

Carson Fulmer, RHP, Birmingham (White Sox): 5.79 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 31:27 K:BB in 42 IP.

Fulmer is a bit of a mess right now, and while the current White Sox regime would never transfer him to the bullpen less than a year after drafting him, I wouldn't fault them for jumping the gun on making that switch. His delivery is high-effort, he's just six feet tall and his college workload was on the very high end. On the right night he'll pitch like a high-end prospect, but on the wrong night he'll fail to make it out of the third inning, and those occurrences are happening with the same frequency. If Fulmer can be dealt for a top-100 prospect, now is the time to pull the trigger on a deal like that while his struggles can still be small sample sized away by an optimistic owner. Spencer Adams is the pitching prospect to own in this system.

Chih-Wei Hu, RHP, Montgomery (Rays): 1.60 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 46:11 K:BB in 45 IP.

Hu's numbers in the Southern League are outstanding, but it's also worth noting that he gave up four runs in 4.2 innings in a spot start at Triple-A earlier this year (although he did strike out seven in that outing). The Rays nabbed him from Minnesota in the Kevin Jepsen deal last year, which is looking pretty good for Tampa Bay, and his development has really taken off since he switched organizations. He doesn't have any pitches that are routinely plus, but a four-pitch mix paired with above average command will allow most pitchers to dominate at the Double-A level. Hu should be considered a borderline top-200 prospect for now, with the potential to enter 2017 in the top-150 or so if his success continues.

Anthony Banda, LHP, Mobile (Diamondbacks): 3.04 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 54:17 K:BB in 50.1 IP.

Banda doesn't have much in terms of pedigree or name value, but he is a six-foot-three lefty with three average or better pitches, which is more than most of the pitchers highlighted here can say. At 22 years old, he's still age appropriate for the level, and he has handled every challenge the D-Backs have thrown at him so far. He's definitely a name to keep an eye on. It's probably a back-end profile, and perhaps not a very intriguing one if he pitches half his games in Chase Field, but his success to this point cannot be ignored.

Chris Ellis, RHP, Mississippi (Braves): 2.89 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 40:21 K:BB in 53 IP.

The third returning piece for the Braves in the Andrelton Simmons trade with the Angels, Ellis has been quite impressive although he likely gets forgotten about in a system as flush with pitching prospects as Atlanta's. It's still a back-end starter profile, but it's not unreasonable to envision the Braves getting more big league starts out of Ellis than Newcomb, who headlined the Simmons trade.

Nick Travieso, RHP, Pensacola (Reds): 5.02 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 41:21 K:BB in 37.2 IP.

Hopefully you're not tired of reading about future back-end starters, because the Southern League is flush with them. Travieso profiles as the classic No. 5 starter who eats 180-200 innings a year and moves around a bit as no team is ever quite satisfied with him taking the ball for them every fifth day. He could wind up being a bit more than that, but he's not the kind of pitcher who is worth a roster spot in most dynasty leagues.

Sal Romano, RHP, Pensacola (Reds): 4.74 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 46:10 K:BB in 43.2 IP.

Romano's fastball is one of the best pitches of any Southern League hurler, but he is also likely to end up in the bullpen. His delivery is unforgettable, as his shoulders get high and rigid, and then he's all effort from there. It's such a funky delivery that his offspeed stuff will fool hitters on the first look, but it's not a sustainable pitch mix for a big league starter. Of course, given the Reds' disaster of a big league bullpen, Romano could offer fantasy value as a high-leverage reliever if everything breaks right, and the Reds could opt to fast track him soon as he's already on the 40-man roster.

OTHERS OF NOTE

Rookie Davis, RHP, Pensacola (Reds): 1.59 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 16:7 K:BB in 34 IP.

Jordan Guerrero, LHP, Birmingham (White Sox): 4.93 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 42:28 K:BB in 42 IP.

Yoan Lopez, RHP, Mobile (Diamondbacks): 4.01 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 18:15 K:BB in 33.2 IP. (Currently on the 7-day DL)

Tyler Danish, RHP, Birmingham (White Sox): 4.11 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 35:12 K:BB in 57 IP.

Jarlin Garcia, LHP, Jacksonville (Marlins): 3.82 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 27:11 K:BB in 37.2 IP.

Zack Godley, RHP, Mobile (Diamondbacks): 3.83 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 31:11 K:BB in 49.1 IP.

Jen-Ho Tseng, RHP, Tennessee (Cubs): 5.12 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 14:9 K:BB in 19.1 IP. (Currently on the 7-day DL)

Adrian Houser, RHP, Biloxi (Brewers): 6.38 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 33:15 K:BB in 42.1 IP.

Austin Brice, RHP, Jacksonville (Marlins): 1.99 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 39:15 K:BB in 49.2 IP.

Wei-Chung Wang, LHP, Biloxi (Brewers): 3.65 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 30:17 K:BB in 44.1 IP.

Ryne Stanek, RHP, Montgomery (Rays): 3.89 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 49:20 K:BB in 41.2 IP.

Jackson Stephens, RHP, Pensacola (Reds): 3.74 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 37:11 K:BB in 43.1 IP.

Brandon Barker, RHP, Mississippi (Braves): 2.00 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 40:12 K:BB in 45 IP.

Rob Whalen, RHP, Mississippi (Braves): 3.42 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 39:21 K:BB in 47.1 IP.

Jake Esch, RHP, Jacksonville (Marlins): 4.63 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 33:15 K:BB in 46.2 IP.