Farm Futures: Trading Wander Franco

My Favorite Dynasty League

I currently play in nine leagues with some kind of dynasty/keeper component. Of those, I would classify five as true dynasty leagues, where there are no contracts and you can keep over 20 players for as long as you want. I love the RotoWire Dynasty Invitational (RDI), where I am the commissioner and share a team with my friend and colleague Ian Kahn. I love The Dynasty Guru Experts League (TDGX) — the first "experts" dynasty league I was ever invited to, commissioned by Bret Sayre of Baseball Prospectus. I love Devil's Rejects, an OBP dynasty league with first-come, first-serve player adding and an unlimited player universe where I co-manage a team with my friend Eno Sarris of The Athletic — this is the most difficult dynasty league I play in. But my favorite dynasty league has become the Prospects 365 Experts Dynasty League (P365XDL), commissioned by my friend Ray Butler of Prospects 365. 

P365XDL had its startup draft in the fall of 2019, back when we thought we were headed towards a completely normal baseball season. This in itself led to some managers suggesting we re-draft the league, something I strongly opposed, as it is affecting managers in every dynasty league the same, not just start-ups. I also selfishly love my team and know I wouldn't get half the draft-day values I got originally if we redrafted today. As strange as it may sound, this is the very first dynasty league I have been in where I am the solo manager and where I was there from the very beginning (the startup draft). I am the solo manager of my TDGX team, but I was brought in as a replacement manager, so I haven't had my fingers on the blueprint of the team since Day 1. This is a big reason why I love my P365XDL squad so much. I also happen to love the format more than that of any of my other dynasty leagues. On-base percentage, net steals, quality starts and saves + holds replace batting average, steals, wins, and saves as roto categories, which I don't really care about. However, it is 60-man rosters (21 active, 39 reserves) and you must field a lineup of active big leaguers, so at a maximum, only 39 of your 60 players can be minor leaguers. All of the dynasty leagues I play in are 20-team leagues, but the rest of the dynasty leagues I play in are 40-50 man rosters and you could theoretically roster zero big leaguers in three of the five of them. I like the wrinkle where you need to roster big leaguers in your active roster spots, as it guarantees that all of your league managers stay active all season long and makes it more challenging to do "The Greg and Tom Strategy" (when a team drafts only prospects in the startup draft with the often successful plan of building a dynasty within three or four years). Another reason I love P365XDL is that it is hosted on Fantrax (RDI, TDGX and DR are not). Fantrax is easily the best host site for a dynasty league as every noteworthy prospect, even the ones who have yet to play a pro game, are in the player pool. It is also just much easier to navigate when searching for free agents and it is the most aesthetically pleasing host site out there.

Let me pivot back to Devil's Rejects quickly. There are two reasons why Devil's Rejects is the toughest dynasty league I play in:

1. Being in the fantasy baseball industry or on Baseball Twitter is not a prerequisite. You would recognize some of the names of the managers in the league, but all the managers are good at dynasty and if they also happen to be in the industry, then so be it. Five years ago I thought that the toughest fantasy baseball leagues were the "expert" leagues. I have come to realize I was incorrect in that assumption. This is my second year in Tout Wars and for the second year in a row, at least one of the teams at the bottom of the standings has not been setting a lineup each week — this is also an inevitable flaw of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational (TGFBI), which I still absolutely love. Simply put, the lower the percentage of active managers, the easier it is to finish high in the standings. Additionally, while RDI and TDGX are populated by a lot of great people, not every manager in those leagues is a good dynasty player.
2. Devil's Rejects is a cash league. Tout Wars, LABR, RDI, TDGX, TGFBI, etc... are all free leagues where you play for bragging rights. Inevitably, some people take those bragging rights more seriously than others.

Back to P365XDL. It is a cash league, but it is exclusively populated by people who talk about prospects on Twitter, so it has the financial incentive to care with the inevitable fact that there will be a wide range of dynasty skill within the pool of managers.

In the aforementioned startup draft, I had the 19th pick out of 20. It's not my style to go for the instant gratification of winning the league in Year One, knowing I would have to embark on a long rebuild in a couple years. Specifically out of the 19 hole, or anywhere in the back 5-6 picks of the first round, I knew I was going to go for a long-haul build. I took Wander Franco with the 19th pick and Bo Bichette with the 21st pick — the plan was to get two of Franco, Bichette and Ozzie Albies. The rest of the players I drafted were almost all 26 or under and I planned on going with close to the bare minimum of 21 active big-leaguers. People often say the point of a dynasty league is to win the league. For me, the point is to build a dynasty, and that's what I set out to do. Franco was going to be the centerpiece of this hopeful dynasty in the making, with the plan being to contend for his entire prime, or at least the first 6-8 years of his prime. I had a lot of confidence in this plan working.

Trading Wander Franco

As is the case in the first year of any dynasty league, teams start to throw in the towel before the halfway point of Year One. They look at the standings and look at their roster and come to the understandable conclusion that they don't have as good of a team as they thought they did after the draft. They also come to the realization that they probably don't have the pieces to contend the following year either, so the natural move would be to start a rebuild. One of the P365XDL managers posted in the group chat last week that he was ready to have a fire sale, and naturally he wanted to know who had Franco and Luis Robert. You might as well aim high when you start trading away pieces. I sent him a private message that I had Franco but that I was not looking to acquire big-league pieces. I hadn't done my due diligence of looking at his roster, I just assumed I wasn't interested.

He then asked if that lack of interest still applied if Mookie Betts was available.

I thought about it for about a second and typed, "Uhhh, well Betts is definitely a guy I'd like".

Betts would be my oldest core position player, but he is also on a Hall of Fame trajectory and won't turn 28 until October. As much as I loved my plan to build around Franco, I needed to explore the possibility of turning Franco into Betts, who is currently the exact player Franco would be if he hit his 99th percentile outcome. If the other manager wanted Franco and another top-20 prospect or Franco and several top-50 prospects, it was going to be tough for me to pull the trigger, as I was completely happy with my Franco-led trajectory. However, after some brief negotiating, I pulled the trigger on the following offer:

Mookie Betts and a 2nd round pick in the upcoming First-Year Player Draft

-for-

Wander Franco, Nick Lodolo and Luis Garcia (WAS)

I'm a fan of Lodolo and Garcia, but I think I will be able to use that 2nd round draft pick to get a comparable prospect to Lodolo, and Garcia didn't profile as a future starter for me if things went according to plan, especially in an OBP league. I was also able to use the two free roster spots to add Curtis Mead and Yeison Santana, two teenage infield prospects with stateside success. 

Another aspect of this trade is playing defense against the other 18 teams in the league. The manager who just traded Betts away is acknowledging that he is further from contending than I am, so I'm not worried about Franco coming back to bite me anytime soon. But if he had traded Betts to another manager for less than 100 cents on the dollar, that could have negatively impacted my title hopes in the coming years.

Roster Construction

Offensive Core

These are the hitters who are part of my immediate offensive core. A couple have not made their big-league debuts yet, but they are accomplished enough and close enough that they are penciled into my first competitive lineup.

Offensive Farm System

I have no idea who my catcher will be when I am ready to compete, but I love all four of the catchers I'm rostering. Caratini is relatively safe. I think Jeffers has top-five catcher upside as soon as he is getting steady playing time, but it's tough to say when that will be. Quintero and Gomez both have top-three catcher upside, but are over four years away.

You will notice that I only have two first baseman (Olson and Vaughn) on my entire 60-man roster. They were my fourth and fifth picks in the startup draft, respectively, because I knew first base was a position I wanted to be strong at, as there is such a dearth of quality young options at the position. I also made a very conscious effort to target position players who provide defensive value in addition to their offensive exploits, because I think those players are safer from a playing time standpoint when we look 3-5 years down the road. This strategy led me away from most of the slower, plodding corner guys.

The second base prospects I'm rostering are just guys I like more than the pack. McKinstry is great and defensively versatile, he's just blocked. Machado's body and swing remind me of Ozzie Albies, but he's at least five years away. Smith may not do much damage against upper-level pitching, but I'm very intrigued by his batted-ball profile and 1.47 BB/K (especially in an OBP league) in short-season ball.

If I can hit on one of Toro or Padlo (both better in OBP than AVG), then Martinez could be a trade chip when it's time to acquire pitching. Schunk and Mead have only performed in the lower levels, but I think they both have plus hit/plus power potential. 

Abrams and Marte are two of the jewels of my farm system, and part of the reason Franco was expendable. The plan won't be to trade them, but for them to be core pieces for a decade. I love Perdomo, especially in OBP leagues, but I could afford to use him as a trade chip if need be. Bonaci, the Garcias and Santana all have top-50 overall prospect potential, especially on real-life lists because of their defense. They are years away, but the early returns in pro ball are promising. Juan Garcia was part of the Nationals' 2019 J-2 class and has a chance for offensive impact with 70-grade speed.

Carroll and Lowe are prized prospects in any OBP league and they could be power/speed anchors for me in a few years. Urbina could be the Twins' leadoff hitter in five years and has a Starling Marte type of fantasy ceiling. Perez was part of the Brewers' 2019 J-2 class, and while I love the swing and the fantasy ceiling, he may end up being a trade chip, especially since there are only four starting outfield spots in this league. Straw has gotten off to a rough start this season, but I still buy his potential to be a three-category force (OBP, runs, steals) by the time I'm ready to compete. I thought Bader's offseason swing change might have unlocked something, but the early returns haven't been good, and he could be a cut candidate by the end of the season. Ramirez (Mets), Gonzalez (Astros) and Pena (Rays) have either ridiculous physical tools (Ramirez), beautiful power swings (Pena) or both (Gonzalez). They will make their pro debuts in 2021.

Starting Pitchers

Inevitably, I will need to trade for some quality starting pitchers (and relievers) when I am ready to compete in 2022, but the hope is that at least a half dozen of these guys emerge as No. 3 starters or better in the coming years. I listed them in the rough order I value them in this league. I would have Voth higher if I were competing this year, but his lack of upside limits his appeal for me, as he could easily be hurt or not in an MLB rotation in a couple years.

Roster Requirement Guys

I would cut the vast majority of these guys were it not for the rule about having to field a full lineup of 21 active big-leaguers. We have IL spots for guys like Palumbo and Alvarado, but every one of these guys could potentially be cut by me before the end of the season. Ideally in this kind of dynasty build, you don't worry about rostering relievers until you're ready to compete, but under these rules, I would rather roll the dice on some high-upside relievers over some old, low-ceiling starters.

Hopefully this was either helpful from a roster-building strategy standpoint, or maybe from a startup dynasty format standpoint (all the credit there goes to Ray Butler).