The MLB season is flying by, and we've hit our first major milestone of the year with the passage of Memorial Day. The MLB betting calendar will flip to June this weekend, which led us to consider which teams have the best chance to turn things around and which may have a tough stretch ahead using historical data. Specifically, we took a look at each team's record in June since 2015 and then compared it to their overall winning percentage in that span to determine which teams have over- and underperformed the most in June in the last 10 years.
Best MLB Teams in the Month of June (Since 2015)
Rank | Team | Record | Win Percentage |
1 | Houston Astros | 148-93 | .614 |
2 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 146-96 | .603 |
3 | Cleveland Guardians | 138-98 | .585 |
4 | Atlanta Braves | 142-101 | .584 |
5 | New York Yankees | 137-102 | .573 |
6 | Boston Red Sox | 138-106 | .566 |
7 | San Francisco Giants | 129-110 | .540 |
8 | Milwaukee Brewers | 127-115 | .525 |
9 | Texas Rangers | 125-115 | .521 |
T-10 | Washington Nationals | 124-116 | .517 |
T-10 | Toronto Blue Jays | 125-117 | .517 |
12 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 122-121 | .502 |
13 | Tampa Bay Rays | 121-122 | .498 |
14 | Seattle Mariners | 121-123 | .496 |
15 | Chicago Cubs | 122-125 | .494 |
16 | Miami Marlins | 120-124 | .492 |
T-17 | San Diego Padres | 118-124 | .488 |
T-17 | Cincinnati Reds | 117-123 | .488 |
T-17 | St. Louis Cardinals | 117-123 | .488 |
20 | Los Angeles Angels | 118-126 | .484 |
21 | Philadelphia Phillies | 114-125 | .477 |
22 | Baltimore Orioles | 115-127 | .475 |
23 | Minnesota Twins | 114-131 | .465 |
24 | Athletics | 111-130 | .461 |
T-25 | Chicago White Sox | 104-134 | .437 |
T-25 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 104-134 | .437 |
27 | Colorado Rockies | 107-140 | .433 |
28 | New York Mets | 104-137 | .432 |
29 | Detroit Tigers | 96-140 | .407 |
30 | Kansas City Royals | 96-142 | .403 |
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Teams that Could Surge
Two of the best June performers are from the American League West, in Houston and Texas. Houston has the top overall record in June and its .614 winning percentage is exactly 30 points higher than the team's overall winning percentage in that span.
Texas is a bit further down the list, in ninth, with a .521 winning percentage in June. But that is 44 points better than their overall winning percentage since 2015 – the third-biggest positive gap among all teams and perhaps a trend if you're monitoring wagers as well as MLB betting promos.
Both Houston and Texas are looking for better playoff positioning. The Astros have a wild-card spot in hand but are still 0.5 games behind the Mariners for first place going into games on May 30. Historical data suggests those teams could flip by the time the calendar turns to July. The Rangers are out of a playoff spot entirely, 3.5 games back from a wild-card berth and 4 games behind in the division. This will be a big month for them to get their season back on track.
Atlanta has arguably been among the most disappointing teams in the league through two months, as they sit 5.5 games out of any playoff spot. Braves fans could have some reason for hope of a turnaround, however, as Atlanta has the fourth-best overall win percentage (.584) in June. We saw a huge surge from the Braves as recently as 2023, when they went 21-4 in the month.
A few other teams to keep an eye on this month are the Red Sox and Giants, both of which are vying for a playoff spot in relatively tough divisions. They rank fifth and sixth, respectively, in positive difference between June and overall winning percentage.
Teams that Could Struggle
The teams that could slip in June are perhaps even more compelling. The Mets have the third-worst record in the month since 2015, but the worst difference between June and overall winning percentage with an 84-point gap (.432 in June compared to .516 overall). The National League East is another very competitive division, and that kind of slump in the month could all but put the division out of reach and even put them in danger of being passed by the aforementioned Braves.
Both Central divisions could be in for an interesting month. The Royals, Tigers and Twins are all in the bottom third of the league in win percentage in June in the past decade (KC is last at .403) and they are all jockeying with the Guardians for postseason spots. The Tigers and Royals both have poor overall winning percentages since 2015, but keep in mind that they lose 40 and 48 points off their overall winning percentage in June. If both plummet again, Cleveland could be in for an easy final few months of the season.
The Cubs and Cardinals are in a similar position in the National League. Both are atop the division entering June, but have lost 47 and 51 points off their overall winning percentage in that span. That could open the door for Milwaukee to make a run, as the Brewers have historically performed well in the month.
Data from ChampsorChumps.us
