Lineup Lowdown: American League

Lineup Lowdown: American League

This article is part of our Lineup Lowdown series.

The goal with Lineup Lowdown is simple: We're looking for trends which could help identify players that might be undervalued or overvalued. Who is playing more/less? Who is moving up/down? We'll be doing a deep dive into one league each week as we navigate the lineup landscape.

Baltimore Orioles

-- Jorge Mateo hit from the lower-third of the batting order exclusively for the first 15 games of the season, but in the 15 games since then he's been in the bottom third just five times. He's peaked at leadoff but mostly been hitting fifth or sixth during that span. Unfortunately, Mateo has also begun to cool off at the dish, particularly so far in May when he's gone just 3-for-20 with nine strikeouts heading into play Monday. The strikeouts are particularly concerning, since improved plate discipline had seemed to be the biggest driving force behind his hot start. I suppose he's a sell high if you can find the right trade partner, but Mateo figures to remain plenty useful in fantasy as someone with a little pop who should be a prolific base stealer.

-- I don't think Gunnar Henderson is in danger of a demotion just yet, but it sure would be nice to start seeing some results. After going 0-for-10 with five strikeouts in his last three contests, Henderson is now sitting on a lowly .174/.339/.304 slash for the season. It's a good sign that he's taking his walks. His 19.1 percent walk rate is among the game's

The goal with Lineup Lowdown is simple: We're looking for trends which could help identify players that might be undervalued or overvalued. Who is playing more/less? Who is moving up/down? We'll be doing a deep dive into one league each week as we navigate the lineup landscape.

Baltimore Orioles

-- Jorge Mateo hit from the lower-third of the batting order exclusively for the first 15 games of the season, but in the 15 games since then he's been in the bottom third just five times. He's peaked at leadoff but mostly been hitting fifth or sixth during that span. Unfortunately, Mateo has also begun to cool off at the dish, particularly so far in May when he's gone just 3-for-20 with nine strikeouts heading into play Monday. The strikeouts are particularly concerning, since improved plate discipline had seemed to be the biggest driving force behind his hot start. I suppose he's a sell high if you can find the right trade partner, but Mateo figures to remain plenty useful in fantasy as someone with a little pop who should be a prolific base stealer.

-- I don't think Gunnar Henderson is in danger of a demotion just yet, but it sure would be nice to start seeing some results. After going 0-for-10 with five strikeouts in his last three contests, Henderson is now sitting on a lowly .174/.339/.304 slash for the season. It's a good sign that he's taking his walks. His 19.1 percent walk rate is among the game's elite and his exit velocity has also been above average. Unfortunately, Henderson's also striking out at a 31.3 percent clip, and he's been unusable versus lefties with a .458 OPS. The 21-year-old is also offering nothing with the glove beyond a good arm. Henderson and Ramon Urias have split third base duties evenly (Henderson has made 18 starts there to Urias' 17), with the rookie making an additional seven starts at shortstop and two at designated hitter. Urias exited Monday's game with a hamstring injury, which could give Henderson a little more leash.

Boston Red Sox

-- After beginning the season in something of a timeshare with Reese McGuire, Connor Wong has emerged as the Red Sox' clear No. 1 catcher. The 26-year-old has started 10 of the last 15 games behind the dish and over that stretch has put together a 1.065 OPS with three home runs, a couple doubles and a stolen base. Wong's strikeout rate (27.2 percent) is a tad high, but he's hitting the ball hard (90.9 mph exit velocity) and is sneaky fast (80th percentile sprint speed). He's mostly batted eighth or ninth and that seems unlikely to change.

-- After using Rafael Devers in the second spot in the order and Masataka Yoshida at cleanup for the first month of the season, manager Alex Cora has swapped them for the last 10 games, at least against righties (Yoshida has hit fifth once, sixth once and been out of the lineup the other time in the three games versus lefties over that span). While it's usually not advisable to give fewer plate appearances to your best hitter, Devers has never been a huge on-base guy and has been even less so this year with a .301 OBP. He also leads the AL with 11 home runs. Meanwhile, Yoshida's reported on-base skills have translated well and then some with a .403 OBP. Yoshida is in the middle of a 16-game hitting streak, during which he's sporting a robust .438/.479/.750 slash line with five longballs.

New York Yankees

-- Harrison Bader has hit fifth three times and sixth twice in five games since returning from the injured list. It hasn't taken him long to make an impact, going 7-for-18 with a pair of home runs, a triple and seven RBI. Bader will probably move down at least one spot with Aaron Judge (hip) due back Tuesday, but with the multitude of injuries the team is dealing with he could still have a fairly prominent spot, especially against lefties.

-- Willie Calhoun entered play Monday with a .323/.371/.516 slash line and a pair of home runs over his last 10 games. He's mostly been batting fifth, too, and appears to be pretty well cemented in as the designated hitter against righties until Giancarlo Stanton (hamstring) returns. The Yankees don't seem to trust his outfield defense, though, so Calhoun will have to keep hitting to remain in the lineup.

-- What the Yankees do with the third outfield spot after Judge and Bader remains to be seen. Oswaldo Cabrera seems to have the most trusted glove, but he's been so bad at the plate that a demotion might be in order. Jake Bauers has mashed this year at Triple-A and probably warrants a look, but his defense might be as bad as Calhoun's. Isiah Kiner-Falefa has taken well to the outfield, but still hits like Isiah Kiner-Falefa.

Tampa Bay Rays

-- You can't argue with the teamwide results, but I've nevertheless been perplexed by Josh Lowe's usage. He has yet to start a game against a left-hander this season even though he entered play Monday having gone 4-for-13 with a home run against them. More confounding is the fact that he's been benched on six occasions versus righties, with five of those coming since April 23. The Rays somehow haven't gone up against a left-handed starter since April 18, which surely has something to do with Lowe's usage. Everyone has to play at some point, I get it. Lowe has been mashing, though, so he simply has to play more.

-- Since Jose Siri returned from the injured list, he's started nine of 13 games, Manuel Margot has started seven, Luke Raley has started eight and the aforementioned Lowe (Josh) has started nine. Harold Ramirez is also in the same ballpark with seven starts over that stretch, although he's pretty much a DH-only at this point, having not played the field since April 16.

Toronto Blue Jays

-- Whit Merrifield has, slowly but surely, essentially become the Blue Jays' everyday second baseman. Among his first 14 starts of the season, just five of them came at second base. He was also on the bench for six of the first 20 contests. Since then, Merrifield has started 13 of 15 games and nine of them were at second base. Santiago Espinal has started just six times over the latter stretch, with four coming at the keystone. Manager John Schneider has basically had the decision made for him. Merrifield has an .844 OPS since April 16, whereas Espinal is sitting on a lowly .491 OPS with just two extra-base hits all season.

-- After striking out in all three plate appearances on May 1, Brandon Belt was sitting on a .161/.235/.274 slash line and obscene 44.1 percent strikeout rate. He then sat out three of the next four games. Then, Belt suddenly reached base in eight of 10 plate appearances in his last two contests. An incredibly small sample size, sure, but perhaps it can be a turning point for the veteran slugger. Belt is hitting the ball plenty hard when he does make contact with a barrel rate in the 90th percentile.

Chicago White Sox

-- Oscar Colas had already been losing plenty of playing time before he was finally optioned back to Triple-A Charlotte on May 2. It's been Gavin Sheets emerging as the regular right fielder against right-handed pitching. He's started each of the last nine games versus righties, with seven of them coming in right field. Sheets went deep again Monday, giving him four home runs over his last 14 contests.

-- In the first two games after Eloy Jimenez's appendectomy, the White Sox used Yasmani Grandal in the designated hitter spot and Seby Zavala at catcher. They also summoned Carlos Perez from Charlotte as a third catcher, perhaps signifying that most of Grandal's playing time in the coming weeks could be at DH (he did catch Monday). It's been a strange season for Grandal. On the surface it looks like he's bounce back solidly from last year's disaster, but his walk rate isn't as robust as usual and he's not hitting the ball hard at all with a sub-30 percent hard-hit rate.

Cleveland Guardians

-- The Guardians finally pulled the ripcord on Oscar Gonzalez, sending him down to Triple-A Columbus over the weekend. He had struggled mightily with just a .501 OPS across his first 25 games. Will Brennan has barely been better with just a .515 OPS, but he has a superior glove and is now in line for the long side of a platoon in right field. Brennan was terrific during a cup of coffee last season and also excellent in the minors, so he remains somewhat interesting. Gabriel Arias should get the starts in right against southpaws.

-- Amed Rosario has been dreadful from the two spot. The problem is that the Guardians are already going L-R-S-L-S-L with the first six in their lineup versus right-handers and the two guys sandwiched around Rosario (Steven Kwan and Jose Ramirez) are the only two really hitting. Rosario has at least gone 6-for-6 in the stolen-base department.

Detroit Tigers

-- Zach McKinstry has emerged as the Tigers' leadoff hitter against right-handed pitching, making nine straight starts in such situations. Six of those starts have come at second base, with one each coming at third base, left field and right field. The 28-year-old is doing some interesting things, too, most notably with an 11.8 percent walk rate and a 13.2 percent barrel rate coming into play Monday. McKinstry – who tweaked his mechanics after watching Jose Ramirez and Rafael Devers take batting practice – has underperformed according to his expected stats via Baseball Savant.

-- With Austin Meadows out indefinitely while battling anxiety, manager A.J. Hinch has settled on Akil Baddoo as his left fielder against right-handed pitching. He's started in left 11 of the last 12 times Detroit has gone up against a righty. Unfortunately, the sophomore slump Baddoo experienced in 2022 has followed him into 2023.

Kansas City Royals

-- Nick Pratto has started nine of 10 games since being recalled from Triple-A Omaha and is sporting a nifty .357/.438/.500 slash line with one home run in 12 games with the big club this season. The batted-ball data looked pretty underwhelming coming into action Monday, though, and Pratto is striking out in one-third of his plate appearances. Pratto has drawn starts at first base and both corner outfield spots, with Vinnie Pasquantino being used a little more at DH lately since Franmil Reyes was handed his walking papers.

-- Jackie Bradley has drawn four straight starts in center field since Kyle Isbel went down with a strained hamstring, which is expected to cost him about six weeks of action. That arrangement should continue for now, but Drew Waters (oblique) is ready for a rehab assignment and should take over in center field once he's ready.

-- Edward Olivares is finally getting regular run after being repeatedly jerked around by the previous regime. He's started 17 of the last 19 games, nearly all of them in left field. The numbers on the surface aren't great, but Olivares entered play Monday with a 40-point gap between his wOBA (.319) and xwOBA (.359).

Minnesota Twins

-- Trevor Larnach had a terrific first week of the season but trailed off dramatically since then before finally being sent down last week. As a result, Joey Gallo has moved from first base out to left field and Alex Kirilloff is up to see if he can stake claim to the first base job. Kirilloff has had a terrible time with a nagging wrist issue the last few years, but he was crushing the ball at Triple-A St. Paul and reached base three times in his first start with the Twins. I don't know if he'll stay healthy, but I think there's a good chance he'll hit if he can stay on the field.

-- It seemed inevitable over the offseason that the Twins were going to trade Max Kepler, but they held onto him and he's been their primary leadoff hitter, at least versus right-handers. Kepler has been solid at the plate since returning from a knee injury in mid-April, putting up an .820 OPS with four longballs in 20 games.

Houston Astros

-- Chas McCormick was activated from the injured list Monday and immediately thrown back in at center field. He did not return to the leadoff spot where he had been prior to his back injury, though. Instead he slid in at seventh while Mauricio Dubon remained at the top of the order. McCormick was having a nice year before getting hurt and should see the bulk of the starts in center field, but Jake Meyers also will be in the mix.

-- Michael Brantley (shoulder) is due back this week and manager Dusty Baker has said previously that, when Brantley plays, he'll be the club's No. 2 hitter. With Jose Altuve (thumb) also looking like he'll be ready before long, we're going to see a shakeup in Houston's batting order. It will be interesting to see how far the struggling Jose Abreu slides down. Sixth would make sense, although it's possible he hits fifth if Yordan Alvarez bats cleanup and Baker wants to keep his lefties split up with Kyle Tucker sliding down to sixth.

Los Angeles Angels

-- Taylor Ward was demoted from the leadoff spot following a rough three-week stretch, but he's been back at the top of the order for the last two games after heating back up. In his first seven games this month, Ward has gone 11-for-27 with one home run and a couple doubles. Zach Neto, who had been elevated to leadoff to replace Ward, was back in the nine spot Monday.

-- The Angels' catching situation since Logan O'Hoppe (shoulder) went down has been… surprisingly good? Journeyman Chad Wallach has held his own and Matt Thaiss, in particular, has been scorching hot, going 13-for-30 with one home run since O'Hoppe was hurt. Thaiss has started four of the last five games behind the dish.

Oakland Athletics

-- One of the few bright spots for the A's this season has been Rule 5 pick Ryan Noda. He's become the team's No. 2 hitter against right-handed pitching and even got a start there versus a lefty over the weekend. Noda strikes out a bunch, but he's got legit on-base skills with a 19.3 percent walk rate and a chase rate which ranked in the 95th percentile heading into play Monday. The 27-year-old is also hitting the ball hard when he makes contact, posting a 90.8 mph exit velocity and 10.2 percent barrel rate.

-- Oakland has faced five righties since JJ Bleday was recalled and the former Marlin has been in the lineup and batting fifth each time. He's popped a couple home runs already, as well. Bleday was putting up absurd numbers at the launching pad of Triple-A Las Vegas before being recalled with a 1.071 OPS, seven dingers and more walks than strikeouts. He had never previously played like a guy befitting of the No. 4 overall pick, though, so it's wise to approach him with a fair bit of skepticism.

Seattle Mariners

-- Naturally, Jarred Kelenic has finally begun to cool off since he was moved up to the third spot in the batting order, as we've seen him hit just .200 with zero home runs and a 36.7 percent strikeout rate over his last 12 contests (10 of which have come from the three hole). I'd love to see manager Scott Servais ride it out with Kelenic, but it's possible he'll revert to what had been working if the slide continues.

-- AJ Pollock hasn't started a game in nearly a week, having been benched in five straight and in eight of the last 10 contests. He actually homered in both of those games he did start, but on the year Pollock is sporting a lowly .153/.203/.407 slash line. He was signed in large part to hit left-handers, but is just 1-for-27 against southpaws so far this season. Taylor Trammell has picked up some playing time with Pollock benched and has homered twice while drawing five walks in his first eight tilts.

Texas Rangers

-- Josh Smith initially saw most of the playing time at shortstop after Corey Seager (hamstring) went down, but Ezequiel Duran has emerged as the preferred option there, making nine straight starts at the position (10 straight overall). The 23-year-old has put up an .826 OPS with four home runs and a couple stolen bases in his first 92 plate appearances. Seager is due to begin a rehab assignment this week and could return within the next week or so. Duran has likely earned regular playing time even after Seager makes it back, though, perhaps in left field.

-- Of late, Travis Jankowski has been seeing the bulk of the starts in left field and even often occupying the second spot in the lineup. He's played surprisingly well, but Jankowski is currently battling a hamstring issue and is due to turn into a pumpkin any day now.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Ryan Boyer
Ryan has been writing about fantasy baseball since 2005 for Fanball, Rotoworld, Baseball Prospectus and RotoWire.
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