This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets and Expert Picks for
Wednesday, May 1
YTD 38-49-1 (-9.55 units)
Prior article 2-5 (-2.25 units)
PRIOR SLATE NOTES
- Javier Assad UNDER 2.5 earned runs for 0.75 unit (BetMGM -110)
- Assad only allowed one earned run and settled down after a tough first inning
- Javier Assad UNDER 4.5 hits allowed for 0.75 unit (DraftKings -130)
- This one just misses as Assad allowed five hits, including three in the first inning
- Cubs ML for 1 unit (BetRivers +110)
- Cubs lose 4-2, but committed two costly errors and only gave up two earned runs
- Jose Berrios OVER 1.5 walks for 0.75 unit (DraftKings +110)
- Tough one here as Berrios goes seven innings and only allows one walk despite an 8.0 percent walk rate.
- Nationals ML for 0.75 unit (DraftKings +130)
- The Nationals were down 2-1 after five innings, but then the bullpen failed to keep them in the game and they lost, 7-1.
- BONUS PROP - Alec Bohm OVER 1.5 total bases for 0.75 unit (DraftKings +110)
- Bohm continued his hot streak
- 3-DOG PARLAY – Nationals, Cubs, Rockies for 0.25 units (DraftKings +882)
- All three dogs lost outright, including the Rockies blowing a 5-0 lead in the 9th
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game, and the bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a F5 inning play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky especially with day games after night games. I would caution about playing any totals (especially team) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game.
MLB Unit Betting Guide (Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals strongest plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals medium plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
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Los Angeles Dodgers 
at Arizona Diamondbacks 
Jordan Montgomery toes the mound today after being "stung" last night with the beehive situation. Bad humor aside, he faces Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who has looked very good with the exception of his first start. Minus that outing, he has a 2.00 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 11.7 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9.
Yamamoto has nailed his recent pitching props – OVER strikeouts four in a row, UNDER hits allowed in five out of six, and three straight UNDER walks allowed. He has gone six innings in his last two starts and with a Dodgers bullpen that saw four arms throw last night, going an extra inning should be the kicker.
MLB Picks for Dodgers at Dbacks
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto OVER 16.5 outs for 1 unit (DraftKings -110)
- Yamamoto OVER 5.5 strikeouts for 1 unit (FanDuel +112)
Chicago Cubs 
at New York Mets 
Yesterday's Cubs/Mets game was beyond frustration as the Cubs' defense committed two costly errors, wasting Javier Assad's start. The one takeaway is that the Mets offense is struggling and now they get Shota Imanaga, who has been lights out this season. Jose Butto looked good in his first two starts, but has struggled in his last two.
Imanaga has a 4-0 record with a sub 1.00 ERA and WHIP. He is a perfect play on pitcher because he is a veteran but also a rookie so nobody has seen him. Continue to ride the hot streak until he starts to pitch against teams the second time around.
MLB Picks for Cubs at Mets
- Cubs ML for 1 unit (FanDuel -124)
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San Francisco Giants 
at Boston Red Sox 
Andrew Bailey has transformed the Red Sox pitching staff into the best in baseball in several statistical categories. Kutter Crawford's strikeout and walk numbers are similar to 2023, but he has not allowed a home run and his strand rate has gone up from 72 percent to 82 percent. His ERA and WHIP have significantly improved. The UNDER has hit in seven out of the last 10 starts for Crawford.
The Giants are averaging just 3.2 runs in their last 10 games and the UNDER is 6-3-1 in their last 10 games.
MLB Picks for Giants at Red Sox
- Giants UNDER 3.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings +110)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto OVER 16.5 outs for 1 unit (DraftKings -110)
- Yamamoto OVER 5.5 strikeouts for 1 unit (FanDuel +112)
- Cubs ML for 1 unit (FanDuel -124)
- Giants UNDER 3.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings +110)
- 3-LEG PARLAY Yamamoto OVER 5.5 strikeouts + Cubs ML + Giants UNDER for 0.25 unit (DraftKings +674)
