Los Angeles Dodgers-Arizona Diamondbacks & More MLB Bets & Expert Picks for May 22

Written by

Michael Rathburn

Published on May 22, 2024

MLB Bets and Expert Picks for
Wednesday, May 22

YTD 67-68-1

Prior article 4-0 (Orioles/Cardinals PPD) (+3.70 units)

POWER OUTAGE

Scoring and home runs continue to be down and UNDERS are hitting at a nice clip. Oddsmakers have adjusted totals and we are seeing a lot more 7.5s and 8.0s. I will continue to focus on OVERS on pitcher-recorded outs at 15.5 or 17.5 as opportunities to get value. You can add unearned runs, hits allowed and strikeouts to the pitcher props I am focused on. Until we see a major change in offense with the weather heating up or major line/odds adjustments, I would continue to hammer pitcher props.

WEATHER IMPACT

Always check weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. As we enter the end of May, the temperatures and humidity are starting to rise, so keep an eye on if scoring starts to see an uptick.

BULLPEN USAGE

You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game, and the bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a F5 inning play.

WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING

Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution about playing any totals (especially team) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an UNDER.

MLB Unit Betting Guide (Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet)

1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals strongest plays, System Plays)
0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)

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Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees

The Yankees have smashed right-handed pitching at home to the tune of a 148 wRC+, which is second to Oakland (yes, Oakland) in the last 30 days. Whenever I see a pitcher with a very friendly home ballpark, I always look at their splits.

Bryce Miller's home/road splits are exactly what I thought - great at home and much different on the road. He has a 2.37 ERA and 0.86 WHIP at home versus a 4.03 ERA and 1.16 WHIP on the road. Now, Miller's numbers on the road are not terrible, but it works to our advantage here because the total on the game is just 8.0. So knowing the Yankees are about a -160 favorite and the total is low because of the Mariners' record on pitching and hitting.

Talk about splits – look at Nestor Cortes, who has a 1.27 ERA and 0.65 WHIP at home versus 6.75 ERA and 1.62 WHIP on the road. This feels like a good spot for a double dip on the Yankees OVER team total and the run line.

MLB Picks for Mariners at Yankees

Yankees OVER 4.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings +100)
Yankees -1.5 runs for 1 unit (PointsBet +132)

San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates

I cannot back Blake Snell in this spot as a road favorite with a 11.57 ERA, 1.97 WHIP, and coming off a rehab start in the minors (yes, I know he threw an immaculate inning). Especially with him going against Jared Jones, who has been lights out this season. Jones has not allowed more than three earned runs in nine starts, sporting a 2.98 ERA and 0.91 WHIP along with 63 strikeouts. His home splits are even better, with a 1.80 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 and a 1.4 BB/9.

MLB Picks for Giants at Pirates

Pirates -0.5 F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings +110)

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San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds

I was on the Padres under and the game under yesterday as they just cannot hit lefties and the Reds cannot hit anyone. In this game, I will look at going with the Padres on the moneyline as I like the matchup of Michael King versus Nick Martinez.

Martinez has gone back and forth from the rotation to the bullpen, but if you isolate his starts, especially his last four, these are the numbers – 6.86 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 6.4 K/9.

The Reds are dead last in the last 30 days with a 66 wRC+ and second to last with a 27 percent strikeout rate. In the month of May, the Reds have scored four or more runs in just six out of 18 games. King has been up and down but he does consistently get a lot of swing and misses.

The Padres are third against right-handed pitching with a 126 wRC+. The combination of the poor starting pitcher for the Reds, poor Reds hitting, and the Padres smashing righties adds up to a strong play on the Friars.

MLB Picks for Padres at Reds

Padres for 1.5 unit (BetMGM -120)

Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers

Here we go again with a system play that I said I would be on all season – Dodgers OVER on their team total when they are heavy favorites at home against a weak right-handed pitcher. Ryne Nelson against Tyler Glasnow is a complete mismatch with the Dodgers -280+ favorites.

Nelson has a 7.06 ERA, 1.88 WHIP on the season, but is 9.88 ERA and 2.27 WHIP in his last three starts.

The Dodgers rank third against right-handed pitchers at home with a 128 wRC+. The Dodgers average over 5.0 runs per game on the season and they are 17-12 to the team total on the OVER at home.

MLB Picks for Diamondbacks at Dodgers