This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets Today: Expert Single Game Picks for April 3
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Hello everyone! I'm so excited to be back and covering all the goodness that is the MLB daily grind. The big story today is the weather as we already have several cancellations and one delay, but that hasn't stopped me from finding a strong RIVALRY game to focus on today. Let's get right after it!
San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers
You can always throw the record books out when these two teams play. That is cliche, I know, but it holds true as these teams always bring out their best for each other, whether it is April, August or October. Tonight, the Giants are looking to avoid a three-game sweep at the hands of their rivals and are sending Kyle Harrison to the bump to take on Tyler Glasnow. Harrison has had decent success against the Dodgers in his small sample size while Glasnow has fared well against the Giants historically. I see value in quite a few spots tonight.
Giants ML +198 (@ FanDuel)
One of the Golden Rules when handicapping MLB is understanding that some teams are ALWAYS going to be overvalued based on their enormous fan base. The Dodgers are at the top of that list. That is not to say they aren't an outstanding team that should be favored ... they are and they should. However, an overzealous public can get carried away. As I mentioned above, Kyle Harrison has done very well against LA. He's only had 25 ABs against current Dodgers, but he's given up just one HIT ... not one run, one HIT in those ABs. At the very least, he will do enough to keep his team in the game and that's all you can ask from a big underdog. I'll be on the San Fran ML tonight.
Giants/Dodgers UNDER 8.5 -110 (@ BetMGM)
Both starters have fared well against their opponents tonight. We talked about Kyle Harrison above, but Tyler Glasnow isn't too far behind. In 37 ABs against the current Giants, he's given up just five hits (although two have been dingers). Glasnow has also struggled with control a bit against San Fran, coming in with a 12/7 K/BB ratio. Still, the combined success of these starters and a decently "Dodger-inflated" total makes the under here worth a play.
Player Prop: Michael Conforto OVER .5 Total Bases -110 (@ DraftKings)
True, Conforto is only 1-for-11 against Tyler Glasnow in his career, but he's also drawn four walks, which tells me he sees Glasnow pretty well. Conforto is also off to a hot start at the plate in 2024 (.391 BA/1.310 OPS/3 HRs) which gives me confidence in laying these small odds. I will be having some fun with additional Conforto bets in this one and, if you can find him and he's in the starting lineup, Wilmer Flores is worth a look as well. Flores is 2-for-5 against Glasnow and is responsible for both dingers on Glasnow's statline.
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Giants ML +148 (@ FanDuel)
- Giants/Dodgers UNDER 8.5 -110 (@ BetMGM)
- M. Conforto OVER .5 Total Bases -110 (@ DraftKings)