This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets Today: MLB Picks for Thursday, April 18
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2024 Regular-Season Betting Record: 3-3 (-0.24 RW Bucks)
2024 Regular-Season Props Betting Record: 3-3 (-0.73 RW Bucks)
Although we have a compact Thursday slate on tap, there are some solid betting opportunities in the two evening games. Without further ado, let's dive into each and try to get the early-season betting record above .500.
Marlins vs Cubs Best Bets
The Marlins' nightmare of a season continued Wednesday with a 3-1 loss to the Giants, pushing Miami's record to 4-15. The Marlins have scored the second-fewest runs in the NL (70) and head into the start of the Wrigley Field series with an MLB-low .271 wOBA and 67 wRC+ the road.
Miami also has a .217 average and -7.7 wRAA in that split, and it will face a debuting Jameson Taillon in Thursday night's battle. Taillon is coming off the IL after having missed the first three weeks of the season with a back issue. The veteran righty was solid in the second installment of his two-start rehab assignment, firing 3.2 scoreless innings during which he allowed three hits and recorded four strikeouts for Triple-A Iowa.
The Marlins counter with A.J. Puk, a talented southpaw who's nevertheless limped to an 0-3 record, 5.91 ERA, 2.44 WHIP and absurd 11.8 BB/9 across his first three starts (8.2 total innings). Puk has only allowed one home run, but a look at his advanced stats reveals he really has been about as ineffective as his numbers suggest.
Puk has a 5.62 xERA and .368 xwOBA, numbers that support that he's been very hittable thus far. Additionally, Puk has just a 13.8 percent strikeout rate, which represents a precipitous drop from the career-best 32.2 percent figure he produced last season. Finally, consider the Cubs have been baseball's most dangerous team against southpaws thus far this season, posting a .383 wOBA and 139 wRC+ in that split (120 plate appearances).
Meanwhile, although Taillon had some struggles in his first Cubs season in 2023 – including at Wrigley Field – he's facing a Marlins squad that's had trouble manufacturing runs and that he should have a better chance of keeping under wraps than Puk will the Cubs.
MLB Picks for Marlins vs Cubs
- Cubs -0.5 – 1st 5 innings (+105 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Cubs moneyline and Under 7.5 total runs (+220 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Diamondbacks vs Giants Best Bets
Neither the defending NL champion DBacks nor the Giants have gotten their seasons off to anything resembling an encouraging start. Both teams come into Thursday's nightcap with sub-.500 records, but in the case of San Fran starter Logan Webb, this is somewhat par for the course.
On the surface, Webb has started the season in fine form yet again, only to frequently be let down by poor run support. Webb has already posted three quality starts, with his only stumble understandably coming against a Dodgers lineup loaded with hitters that have often had his number throughout his career.
Webb has also given up only one homer through his first 23.2 innings, but there's some reasons for concern Thursday. To begin with, much like the Blue Crew, current DBacks hitters have given Webb trouble, as he's conceded a .296 average and .724 OPS with eight extra-base hits across 135 total encounters with Arizona bats.
Webb's underlying metrics are also a bit foreboding – he sports a .328 xBA, .356 xwOBA and 5.20 xERA. His strikeout rate is also down to a career-low 17.0 percent, and Arizona checks in with a 13.9 percent walk rate, modest 18.0 percent strikeout rate, .339 OBP and .322 wOBA versus righties on the road thus far.
On the other side, D-Backs starter Ryne Nelson opened the season with a rough outing against the Yankees before showing improvement against a daunting Atlanta squad and the Cardinals. Nelson allowed four runs over 11 innings in that pair of starts while posting an 11:1 K:BB. However, he's also had trouble against his opponent's bats in the past, as current Giants hitters have a .323 average and .957 OPS against Nelson in 32 career encounters.
Both starters have the ability to make life difficult on the opponent, but I see some prior history rearing its head on either side to an extent. With an acceptable price on a bet that banks on both teams combining for at least four runs through seven innings in a game that has a projected total of up to 8.5 in some sportsbooks, I'm willing to take a shot.
MLB Picks for Diamondbacks vs Giants
- Both teams to score 2+ runs- 1st 7 innings (-120 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Michael Conforto Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140 on Bet365 Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Cubs -0.5- 1st 5 innings (+105 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Cubs moneyline and Under 7.5 total runs (+220 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Both Diamondbacks and Giants to score 2+ runs –1st 7 innings (-120 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Michael Conforto Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140 on Bet365 Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
