This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets and Expert Picks for Saturday, May 11
St. Louis Cardinals at 
Milwaukee Brewers
The St. Louis Cardinals travel to Milwaukee to face the Brewers for the second time this season. They played a series against them at home already this season and they were swept in three games. This is the third game of a four game series and the Brewers have already won each of the first two games, so they have won five in a row against the Cardinals to start this season, and they have their ace in Freddy Peralta on the mound tonight. The Brewers have started the season red hot, leading the NL Central division at 23-15. The Cardinals have started the season the exact opposite, as they've been ice cold and they are bringing up the rear in the NL Central division at 15-23. The Cardinals have lost six games in a row now and eight of their last 10 games overall. They already have a -50 run differential and they are just 9-12 on the road.
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Freddy Peralta faces off against Kyle Gibson today as the starting pitching matchup. Freddy Peralta is 3-1 with a 3.49 ERA this season in seven starts and he has already faced the Cardinals once this season. He did not allow a run in six scoreless innings against them the first time he faced them on the road, and he had just two walks and seven strikeouts. He has really only had one bad outing this season, and it was against the Pirates on the road. He has interestingly only made two starts out of seven at home this season and he pitched well in both of them. Kyle Gibson is 2-2 with a 3.68 ERA this season in seven starts and he has been pitching a lot better than expected. He also faced the Brewers once this season already and he allowed just one run in six innings pitched, but with four walks and three strikeouts. That outing started a streak for Gibson of four consecutive quality starts and he actually has pitched a quality start in five of his seven outings overall this season. However, he has multiple walks in every outing except for one this year, and he has interestingly only made three road starts all season, one of which was one of his bad outings.
These teams actually have very similar bullpens overall if you look at the numbers. They are right next to each other in the league rankings in terms of bullpen ERA, with the Brewers ranked 14th in the league and the Cardinals ranked 15th. Both teams have multiple relievers they can rely on if they get the lead in this game, so I do think that aspect of this matchup is pretty much a wash. However, there is a massive discrepancy when it comes to the lineups. The Brewers are ranked second in the league in wOBA against righties this season and they recently added Christian Yelich back from the IL. The Cardinals are ranked 23rd in the league in wOBA against righties this season and they recently lost Willson Contreras to the IL for an extended period of time after he was hit on the forearm by a swing. That is a massive hit for the Cardinals, because they weren't hitting in the first place and he was one of the few players that was having success.
As I mentioned earlier, the Cardinals are on a slide right now losing six straight games and they have no help in sight. Paul Goldschmidt has struggled to the point of being one of the worst qualified hitters in the league this season, and guys like Lars Nootbaar and Dylan Carlson haven't helped pick up the slack much. I see no reason not to get off the Brewers here. They have won all five games against the Cardinals this season and they dominated them again last night. My favorite play in this game is juicy, but I think it is very worth it at that price. If you don't want to lay the juice, I don't mind a first five innings -0.5 play either, but this is my favorite play in this game.
BEST BET
- Brewers ML -175 vs. Cardinals (MGM)
