MLB Barometer: Almost Opening Day Edition

Most of the collective bargaining talks over the winter focused on economic issues, with little discussion of how to improve the product for fans. Many of the adjustments that were made in that regard were negative. The slippery slope of turning jerseys into billboards has begun, with the two sides agreeing to allow advertisements on uniforms. Watering down the importance of the regular season by expanding the playoffs seems like mostly a negative, and the continuation of the "ghost runner" rule in extra innings similarly doesn't seem to have many fans. (Just allow ties already if you really think the solution to baseball's problems is less baseball.) Blackouts, an issue of particular importance to fans, went unaddressed.

One change appears to be very positive, however, and it may be positive enough to outweigh all the movement in the opposite direction. The league and union made a real effort to ensure it was in teams' best interest to call up their top prospects on Opening Day, and while I was initially skeptical the new setup would work, numerous announcements over the past week suggest that we're entering a far better world in that regard.

Here are the relevant changes:

• If a rookie finishes top two in Rookie of the Year voting, he'll receive a full year of service time, regardless of how many days he was on the roster.
• If a rookie is on the roster for the entirety of the season and finishes top three in Rookie of the Year Voting, his team will receive a bonus draft pick.

Prior to these new rules, the default expectation was that any rookie would be kept in the minors to "work on his defense" until late April, which coincidentally delayed his free agency by a year. Teams hadn't exactly earned the benefit of the doubt in this area, so the cynic in me wondered if these new rules would backfire. Would teams respond by keeping their prospects down even longer, ensuring they had no chance to rank highly in Rookie of the Year voting and secure that extra year of service?

The recent news on that front has been very encouraging, however. While injuries will prevent Adley Rutschman (triceps) and Riley Greene (foot) from debuting right away, a host of other top prospects will make Opening Day rosters. Oneil Cruz is a notable exception, but fans will get to see Bobby Witt Jr., Spencer Torkelson, Julio Rodriguez, Hunter Greene, Matt Brash and Steven Kwan right away.

It's a refreshingly optimistic development for a league that's badly in need of good vibes after labor struggles consumed the offseason discourse. Early April should be the best time of year for baseball fans, and things are certainly looking that way. The weather is warming up (we'll ignore that it's snowing outside my window in Chicago as I write this), and everybody's team is still in contention, and we'll now get to see tons of the games brightest young talents on the biggest stage all at once.

Those exciting young players make up the bulk of the risers section below, alongside a reliever who just got a major role upgrade. The fallers this week primarily consist of injured players, but we'll leave those aside for now and keep the positivity going. I'm feeling like a kid on Christmas Eve with Opening Day right around the corner, so we'll skew more heavily toward risers than usual this week.

RISERS

Craig Kimbrel, RP, Dodgers: I'll be taking a big "L" on this one. Just last week, I listed Kimbrel as a faller and discussed how I doubted the White Sox would be able to find a suitor. A contender like them would only accept big-league talent in return, but only a contender would want to add Kimbrel, and why would they trade big-league talent away? As it turns out, the White Sox were indeed able to find a fit, and I'm now regretting missing out on him when he came with a big uncertainty discount. The trade still confuses me, as the Dodgers had a pair of closer-caliber arms already in Blake Treinen and Daniel Hudson, with plenty of depth behind them, and they now have surprisingly mediocre depth options on the offensive side after dealing away AJ Pollock. The effect on Kimbrel's fantasy value isn't remotely confusing, however, as he's found himself on the team that should generate the most saves this season. The Dodgers' aforementioned pitching depth does mean they're well-equipped to drop him from the closer role should he struggle, something that's happened a bit too often in recent seasons, but it wouldn't be at all surprising if his elite strikeout numbers and huge number of save chances make him the top reliever by the end of the year. 

Bobby Witt Jr., SS/3B, Royals: Maybe you don't count Witt as a riser if you already assumed he'd make the Opening Day roster, as it had long been suspected the Royals were open to the idea, but reports confirm he will indeed break camp in the big leagues. Witt has all but forced the Royals' hand, hitting .400/.438/.700 with two homers and just three strikeouts in 11 Cactus League games. Witt tore up the upper minors last season, hitting .290/.361/.575 with 33 homers and 29 steals in 123 games split across the two highest levels. A 20-20 season with a respectable batting average doesn't seem like much of a stretch for him in his debut, especially now that he'll be available for 162 games rather than something more like 145. There's risk involving how he adjusts to major-league pitching, as there is for any rookie, but he's an elite prospect who's still just 21, so there's plenty of growth still ahead of him.

Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Tigers: Torkelson has just a single year of professional experience, as he was drafted first overall during the canceled minor-league season in 2020, but he's also been confirmed to be breaking camp in the big leagues. He has a less fantasy-friendly game than Witt, as he won't steal many bases, but he was considered one of the more MLB-ready bats in recent memory when he was drafted and did nothing to disprove that idea last season. In 121 games split across the three highest levels of the minors, he homered 30 times while slashing .267/.383/.552 and demonstrated good plate discipline in the form of a 14.5 percent walk rate and 21.5 percent strikeout rate. A .238 batting average in 40 games for Triple-A Toledo represents a potential red flag, though a .233 BABIP accounts for much of that. His flyball approach means low BABIPs, and therefore low batting averages may always be part of his profile, but his lack of a strikeout problem should keep him from bottoming out — see Rhys Hoskins for a template for how Torkelson's profile could potentially work out at the MLB level.

Julio Rodriguez, OF, Mariners: While Witt and Torkelson seemed all spring to have good shots at making their respective Opening Day rosters, that was less certain for Rodriguez, who'd yet to reach Triple-A. He tore up High-A and Double-A last season, however, hitting .347/.441/.560 with 13 homers and 21 steals in 74 games. He's a true five-tool player and even showed good plate discipline, combining a 12.6 percent walk rate with a 19.5 percent strikeout rate. He's still just 21 and will be making a big jump, but he's an elite talent who should be able to handle it. The projection systems already think he's an above-average major-league hitter; even the most pessimistic, THE BAT, pegs him for a 108 wRC+, a remarkable figure for someone with no Triple-A experience, and the rest sit between 117 and 124. Seattle's pitcher-friendly park is a minor negative, as is the fact that the Mariners have a full outfield and can afford to bench or demote him if he struggles, but he looks poised for a strong start after posting a 1.285 OPS this spring. 

Hunter Greene, SP, Reds: Greene didn't pitch in 2019 or 2020 due to Tommy John surgery and the canceled minors schedule, but an impressive 2021 season earned him a spot in the Reds' suddenly barren rotation. In 21 starts split across the two highest levels last season, the 22-year-old cruised to a 3.30 ERA while striking out 31.7 percent of batters and walking an acceptable 8.9 percent. He's allowed five earned runs in five innings this spring, but his 7:1 K:BB is encouraging. There's no guarantee Greene keeps his job for long, as Luis Castillo and Mike Minor are expected to return from shoulder injuries by the end of April, but the 2017 second-overall pick has much more prospect pedigree than Vladimir Gutierrez and Reiver Sanmartin, so I'd bet on him keeping the job. He doesn't have a great park to pitch in and isn't in a good situation for maximizing his win total, but his triple-digit heat should continue to get him plenty of whiffs, keeping him useful in one category with the potential for more if things break his way.

Matt Brash, SP, Mariners: Brash can't match Greene's hype levels, as he was merely the 113th-overall pick in the 2019 draft, but he'll likewise earn a spot in his team's Opening Day rotation after posting a 0.96 ERA and 12:2 K:BB in 9.1 spring innings. He's yet to pitch above Double-A, though he's actually already spent time on the major-league roster, as he was called up very late last season but didn't get into a game. The Mariners clearly seem to like him, and it's not hard to see why. In 20 outings split between High-A and Double-A last season, he posted a 2.31 ERA and a 35.1 percent strikeout rate. Control is a worry, as he walked 11.9 percent of opposing batters, but his strikeout stuff should keep him useful in at least one category, as it will for Greene. Brash also has other advantages over Greene, as he'll be pitching in a far better park and will be supported by a roster that's actually trying to win. The Mariners have other young arms to turn to if his walk troubles become too severe, but he's a great upside arm to take a chance on for now.

Steven Kwan, OF, Guardians: If you like your rookies to have a standout carrying tool, you'll love Kwan. He's among the best at making contact in all of professional baseball, striking out just 9.2 percent of the time in 217 career minor-league games. That's more or less all he does at the plate, as he has just 15 career professional homers, though he could have a shot at double-digit steals if he earns regular playing time. Exactly what his role will be is yet to be determined, but the notoriously stingy Guardians likely didn't elect to start his service-time clock just to have him sit on the bench. He's a strong defender who'd be more than capable of handling center field if Myles Straw gets hurt, which further enhances his case for starts. Kwan's extreme contact-over-power profile means he won't fit on every fantasy roster, but there's little doubt about his ability to help your batting average right away. A slash line that looks like that of Luis Arraez or Kwan's college teammate Nick Madrigal seems very possible, though Kwan has the best chance of getting to 10 homers among that trio.

FALLERS

Jacob deGrom, SP, Mets: Well that didn't take long. DeGrom's NFBC ADP jumped from 24.6 through the end of the lockout to 16.9 between the end of the lockout and March 30, as he looked perfectly healthy at the start of camp. Reports of shoulder tightness emerged March 31, however, and he's now plummeted to 94.9 and will only keep falling. It's since been reported that he has a stress reaction in his right scapula and will be shut down from throwing for four weeks. He'll have to build back up for several weeks at that point, so an optimistic return timeline still probably places him in early June. Those who faded deGrom based on his injury risk are taking a victory lap right now, even though it was an elbow issue that worried everyone last year, not his shoulder. (To be fair, it's entirely possible that weakness in one part of his arm caused an issue elsewhere.) He's still interesting at his reduced price, especially in leagues with IL spots, as he could still be the best pitcher on a per-inning basis when he returns and could still pitch over half the season, but the difference between injury risk and an actual injury is huge.

Giovanny Gallegos, RP, Cardinals: Gallegos clearly has a closer's skillset. He's recorded strikeout rates north of 30 percent for three straight seasons with walk rates no higher than seven percent, posting a 2.76 ERA over that stretch. Liam Hendriks is the only reliever who can say the same. Gallegos hasn't been named the Cardinals' closer, however, and reports from the past week indicate the team is looking to join the growing ranks of teams who eschew traditional bullpen roles. That the team let manager Mike Schildt go despite the fact that he led the Cardinals on a remarkable late-season charge to the playoffs last season may back up that idea. Gallegos should still earn the majority of the team's saves, as he seems to be the most reliable option, but he could also be deployed to put out fires earlier in the game. Jordan Hicks, Genesis Cabrera and Ryan Helsley have also been mentioned as relievers who could pitch in the ninth inning, though only Hicks and his chart-topping velocity looks like a good fit there. Gallegos should still lead this team in saves, but it might be with only around 20 if the Cardinals stick with the committee approach.

Michael Conforto, OF, Free Agent: The fact that Conforto remains unsigned is enough reason for him to drop significantly, as he'll have to build up to game speed with his new team whenever he eventually signs. Things got even worse for him this week after it was revealed by agent Scott Boras that he'd dealt with a shoulder injury over the winter after landing awkwardly during a workout. While Boras was seemingly bringing that up as justification for his failure to find his client a deal and indicated that the outfielder was now healthy, it's fair to speculate that teams may remain skeptical. A team better really want Conforto if they're to make him an offer, as they'll have to surrender a draft pick to get him since he declined the Mets' qualifying offer in November. That now looks like a significant misreading of his market, as teams don't seem interested in a guy who hit .232/.344/.384 with 14 homers last season. It's tough to draft a player coming off a down season like that when he's set to remain unemployed for an undetermined period.