This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets Today: Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals
We have two weeks to go in the MLB regular season. Can this get any more electric? Two teams that are all but eliminated square off on Monday, but I see a look we can squeeze in on.
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals First Inning Run(s) | Yes: +110/No: -140
Something I dabbled in a lot during the 2022 season was the No Runs First Inning (NRFI) and Yes Runs First Inning (YRFI) market, but after a hiatus, I'm ready to get back into this market. Paul Skenes has been better than advertised as a rookie who would likely be the Cy Young winner in the National League had he started in the Majors this year. The 22-year-old righty holds an outrageous 2.10 ERA and 151 strikeouts in 120 innings. If you remember correctly, I gave Skenes out at 45/1 preseason to win the National League Rookie of the Year award, an award he is firmly in the mix for at the moment. He'll be facing off against Andre Pallante, an average starter sporting a 4.13 ERA.
Skenes' first-inning appearances lately have been decent, surrendering a run in one first frame out of his last five. In 14.1 innings across two appearances against the Cards, Skenes has only allowed two earned runs. Given the fact he may continue to be on a shorter leash as he nears the end of his rookie campaign, it's important he starts fast. The Red Birds may look to repeat Sunday's top-of-the-order in Brendan Donovan, Alec Burleson and Nolan Arenado, all of whom are batting under .275. With a 1.49 ERA and .173 opponents' batting average on the road, it could be a nice spot for the rookie to get off to a hot start in a pivotal matchup.
It would be wise to hold off placing your bets on the best online sportsbooks until you know for certain you first have the most up-to-date and competitive MLB odds.
Pallante has been a bit shakier to open up his outings lately. In his last five starts, he's allowed a first-inning run in two of them. The Pirates offense has been decent lately, scoring 25 runs in their last five contests. It definitely could be a little tougher for Pallante to hold down this Pirates offense. His 4.73 ERA at home is a bit worrisome as well, but the Pirates offense is only hitting .231 with a .653 OPS away in 2024.
The NRFI is juiced to the over even though there are plenty of opportunities for this to be a YRFI. The truth is I think this could be a lower-scoring contest, at least through the first half of the game. Give me the NRFI with both pitchers coming out dealing.
Pick: NRFI (-140 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
