This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets and Expert Picks for
Friday, June 7
YTD 86-83-1
Prior article 3-1 (+2.90 units)
POWER OUTAGE
Scoring and home runs continue to be down and UNDERS are hitting at a nice clip. Oddsmakers have adjusted totals and we are seeing a lot more 7.5s and 8.0s. I will continue to focus on OVERS on pitcher-recorded outs at 15.5 or 17.5 as opportunities to get value. You can add unearned runs, hits allowed and strikeouts to the pitcher props I am focused on. Until we see a major change in offense with the weather heating up or major line/odds adjustments, I would continue to hammer pitcher props.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. As we are in the early days of June, the temperatures and humidity are starting to rise, so keep an eye on if scoring starts to see an uptick.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game, and the bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a F5 inning play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution about playing any totals (especially team) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an UNDER.
MLB Unit Betting Guide (Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals strongest plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
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Houston Astros 
at Los Angeles Angels 
The Angels are not a very good team, but they are good at hitting against left-handed pitching. They lit up Framber Valdez for eight runs and 10 hits on May 20. They are fourth best with a 136 wRC+ against lefties in the last 30 days.
One thing to remember is that oddsmakers do not look at splits like this when they are setting lines. The Angels average 4.06 runs per game and 55 percent is 2.2 – five innings/nine innings – which is against all pitchers. If you consider the huge edge they have against left-handed pitchers, 1.5 is a low number.
MLB Picks for Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels
- Angels OVER 1.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -125)
Boston Red Sox 
at Chicago White Sox 
I would never take the White Sox in any situation despite what Steve Stone said, but this is Garrett Crochet who is one of the best lefties in baseball. The Red Sox cannot hit lefties to save their lives and last time out Max Fried put up 13 strikeouts against them.
Much like it was with Fried, the Red Sox are perfect strikeout-ladder candidates against left-handed pitchers and Crochet is one of the best.
MLB Picks for Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox
- Garrett Crochet 8+ strikeouts for 1 unit (FanDuel -110)
- Crochet 9+ strikeouts for 0.5 unit (FanDuel +182)
- Crochet 10+ strikeouts for 0.25 unit (FanDuel +340)
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Cleveland Guardians 
at Miami Marlins
This line confuses me as both Logan Allen and Ryan Weathers are not good pitchers, plus they are both left-handed. While the Guardians are 12-3 against LHP, the Marlins are just 2-19 against them. With the Guardians slight favorites on the road, I will take the better team despite a bad starting pitcher.
MLB Picks for Cleveland Guardians at Miami Marlins
- Guardians ML for 1 unit (DraftKings -112)
Baltimore Orioles 
at Tampa Bay Rays 
I am not a fan of taking the Rays OVER 4.5 runs but, if you look at their home/road and righty/lefty splits, they CRUSH lefties at home to the tune of 151 wRC+ in the last 30 days. While the sample size is not huge (80 at-bats), they have been at 130 since the season started, which is good for fourth in baseball.
MLB Picks for Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays
- Rays OVER 4.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings +125)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Angels OVER 1.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -125)
- Garrett Crochet 8+ strikeouts for 1 unit (FanDuel -110)
- Crochet 9+ strikeouts for 0.5 unit (FanDuel +182)
- Crochet 10+ strikeouts for 0.25 unit (FanDuel +340)
- Guardians ML for 1 unit (DraftKings -112)
- Rays OVER 4.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings +125)
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