Top MLB Bets Today: Cubs, Dbacks, White Sox/Royals for May 5th Action
Previous article 4-0 (+3.98 units)
Season 35-42-1 (-9.01 units)
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Key Trends to Watch in Today's MLB Games
Road Favorites - Dodgers -200 at Marlins
Home Favorites (Largest) - Royals -230 vs White Sox, Cubs -157 vs Giants
Totals - Dodgers/Marlins, Dbacks/Mets (9.5); Cubs/Giants, White Sox/Royals (7.5)
Weather
Cooler temperatures across the board, along with 3 games being played indoors.
Wind blowing in 12 mph in Padres/Yankees and a good chance of rain delay/PPD
MLB Line Movement
Dodgers -47, Braves -15, White Sox -19, Cubs -28, Pirates -24, Dbacks -15
Bullpen Rankings (updated 5/5/25)
Top 5 (Mets, Padres, Yankees, Dodgers, Astros). These are teams you can feel confident betting in full-game situations.
Bottom 5 (Angels, Nationals, Orioles, Brewers, Marlins). These are teams you can feel confident betting against in full-game situations. If you want to bet on them, focus on F5s.
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MLB Monday Night Best Bets and Predictions
San Francisco Giants 
at Chicago Cubs Picks
The Cubs are the best F5 team in baseball, especially at home with a 10-4-2 record (+$325). Their bullpen is one of the worst so you only want to play them in F5 situations.
Landon Roupp and Matthew Boyd have almost identical numbers, yet one pitcher has a 5.10 ERA (Roupp) and the other has a 2.70 ERA (Boyd), which shows how unreliable that stat can be. Boyd is a lefty, and the Giants are just 2-8 against them.
The difference in these teams is on offense, where the Cubs are 1st in baseball with 5.94 runs per game. I am going to lay -0.5 runs F5 and get the line within reason.
MLB Best Bets: Cubs -0.5 F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -115)
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Chicago White Sox 
at Kansas City Royals 
Picks
I have written a lot about "system" plays, and I keep a word doc of each one. This game falls under the F5 UNDER scenario as we have two solid starting pitchers, two weak offenses, and two weak bullpens.
Cole Ragans has a 4.40 ERA but is coming off a bad start that ended early with a groin strain. Ragans had been in his 2023/2024 form up until that start. Shane Smith has been a surprise starter for the White Sox who has not allowed more than 3 runs in any start.
The Royals and White Sox are bottom 5 in runs per game and KC is 14-5-1 to the UNDER in their last 20 overall, 12-2 to the UNDER in their last 14 at home.
MLB Best Bet: White Sox/Royals F5 UNDER 3.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings +120)
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New York Mets 
at Arizona Diamondbacks 
Picks
One of the most overlooked factors in handicapping baseball is a team's travel schedule. The Mets had to play a double-header Sunday in St. Lous, then turn around and head to Arizona and play Monday night. This leaves their bullpen taxed, and they will either have to let Griffin Canning go further in the game than they would like or overwork the bullpen.
Ryne Nelson's 5.82 ERA is misleading, and he should be headed for positive regression as his xERA is 3.35, FIP 2.19, and xFIP 2.52.
MLB Best Bet: Dbacks ML for 1 unit (FanDuel -116)
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MLB Picks Recap
- Cubs -0.5 F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -115)
- White Sox/Royals UNDER 3.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings +120)
- Dbacks ML for 1 unit (FanDuel -116)
