This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets: Expert MLB Picks for Tuesday, August 6
- Year-to-Date Record: 126-121-1
- Prior article: 3-3 ( -0.37 units)
MLB Betting Tips
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MLB SPLITS
I lean on splits more than any other metric for baseball. I look at starting pitcher (full season) and team (last 30 days) home/road splits and vs. right-handed pitchers/left-handed pitchers splits to get enough of a sample size but also recency. This is where you can find value because oddsmakers do not bake these into the lines.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check the weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. Summer temperatures and humidity are starting to rise, so keep an eye on if scoring starts to see an uptick.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game. The bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a first five innings (F5) play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution against playing any totals (especially team totals) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an under.
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MLB Unit Betting Guide
Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting on baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet:
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals Strongest Plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
Boston Red Sox 
at Kansas City Royals 
Whenever you have a relatively close line with a total of 8.5, you know team totals will be 3.5 with juice or 4.5 with plus-money. I always like to lean towards taking the easier number and lay the juice, but in this case, we have a ridiculously hot Red Sox offense that has been number one in baseball since July 1st. The key with the Red Sox is avoiding them against left-handed pitching.
The Red Sox are 9-1, 13-7 and 19-10-1 to the over in their last 10/20/30 games and the Royals are significantly better offensively at home versus on the road (5.2 runs versus 4.3).
Brayan Bello gives up the long ball, so I can see the Royals getting to him. Seth Lugo has been lights out all year, but the Red Sox are averaging 7.3 runs per game in their last 10 and can get to this Royals bullpen.
MLB Picks for Red Sox at Royals
- Red Sox OVER 4.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings +120)
Philadelphia Phillies 
at Los Angeles Dodgers 
I am a big proponent of team batting splits and team totals as those numbers are not baked into the odds, especially on the team total side. We get the Phillies, who are the number one team against left-handed pitching, facing Clayton Kershaw, who is not the Kershaw of old. The Dodgers are also live here with their 26-12 record against lefties. They face Cristopher Sanchez tonight.
The Phillies have struggled lately, but it is their pitching is the issue, not their offense. We also get a similar scenario as the Red Sox with a game total of 8.5 runs, so 3.5 will have heavy juice and 4.5 plus-money. In this case, because we have the plus-money already on the Red Sox, you want to look at balancing some of it out and laying the juice at over 3.5 on the Phillies.
If you do not want to lay the juice at 3.5, you can get plus-money at 4.5, but also look at the Dodgers' team total and the game total.
MLB Picks for Phillies at Dodgers
- Phillies OVER 3.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -145)
San Diego Padres 
at Pittsburgh Pirates 
Dylan Cease is on an incredible run and could end up stealing the National League Cy Young Award similar to Blake Snell last year. His current odds are +3000 on BetRivers, but are in the +1500 to +2000 range at other sportsbooks.
In his last four starts, opponents have averaged 2.3 hits per game and 0.25 runs per game. The Pirates are a pesky offense but no threat here. The Padres are hot, going 8-2 in their last 10.
MLB Picks for Padres at Pirates
- Padres -1.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings +100)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Red Sox OVER 4.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings +120)
- Phillies OVER 3.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -145)
- Padres -1.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings +100)
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