This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets Today: Expert MLB Picks for Marlins @ Braves for Thursday, August 1
Hello, friends. Welcome to August and the aftermath of a wild MLB trade deadline. I'm taking a look at a National League East battle today that appears to be a mismatch on paper but looks much closer upon examination. Let's dive in.
Eric Timm's season record: 12-10 (+4.30 units)
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Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves Best Bets
While the Braves are not the dominant, top team in the division we are used to, their name still carries weight with the general public. The opposite can be said about the Marlins. When that recipe comes together, I smell the sweet aroma of value. Miami has been scrappy since the trade deadline. They have historically done well as second-half spoilers with their penchant for stockpiling and showcasing talented youngsters.
One of those youngsters is Max Meyer, who gets the starting nod today in his second start since being recalled in July. The Braves counter with steady but unspectacular Charlie Morton. Atlanta is just 4-6 in their last 10 and lost four straight at home. The value here is squarely on the feisty Fish.
MLB Picks for Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves
- Marlins ML +175 (@ BetRivers)
- Marlins @ Braves Under 8.5 Runs +100 (@ BetRivers)
In limited appearances, both Morton and Meyer have fared well against the opposing bats and six of these teams' last 10 games have had eight or fewer runs scored. Morton is a far better pitcher at home as well. At 8.5 with plus-money, I see slight value on the under for this contest.
MLB Pick for Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves
- Jake Burger 1+ HR +400 (@ FanDuel)
With so few plate appearances, there isn't a lot of historical data to go off of when choosing a player prop for tonight's game. Instead, I'm going to ride the hottest bat in the Miami lineup against Mediocre Morton: Jake Burger. Burger has seven hits in his last five games, three of those coming in the form of round-trippers. The books have taken notice and taken quite a bit of value away from Burger's props, but I'm still going to target his home run number at +400. Morton has given up 14 dingers so far this year; for context, Colorado's Ryan Feltner has given up 15 in nine more innings, so the opportunity is certainly there.
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MLB Best Bets Recap for Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves
- Marlins ML +175 (@ BetRivers)
- Marlins @ Braves Under 8.5 Runs +100 (@ BetRivers)
- Jake Burger 1+ HR +400 (@ FanDuel)
