This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Expert MLB Picks for Thursday, September 19
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We are on a serious roll in this spot, going 9-3 over my last four articles with an eight-unit profit. Today, we head to the upper Midwest to check out the freshly crowned champs of the National League Central taking on the Desert Snakes in a battle of teams heading to the playoffs.
Diamondbacks at Brewers Best Bets
Normally, I'd stay far away from the Brewers after clinching the National League Central title yesterday. However, the celebration was very subdued and Milwaukee is still working on playoff positioning, so they still have things to play for. Additionally, the Brewers knew they won the Central early yesterday afternoon and had a small celebration after last night's game. They don't have to travel anywhere for tonight's home game, so I don't see that being a factor. The pitching matchup between Arizona's Brandon Pfaadt and Milwaukee's Tobias Myers favors the Brewers as well, so I'll take the value on the Crew as a home underdog today.
MLB Pick for Diamondbacks at Brewers
- Brewers ML (+100 @ BetMGM)
As mentioned above, this Pfaadt vs. Myers pitching duel looks to favor Milwaukee. Even without the disastrous 1.2/7/8 line from his start last week against this same Brewers team, Pfaadt has not been good over the last month. He has given up four or more earned runs in five of his last six starts while clearing the sixth inning only once. Conversely, in Myers' last four home starts, he has given up only six earned runs over 24 innings. Both of these teams have excellent offenses and I'll follow the value with the over.
MLB Pick for Diamondbacks at Brewers
- Diamondbacks-Brewers Over 8.0 Runs (+115 @ DraftKings Sportsbook)
For today's player prop selection, I'm going to look at the ultra-speedy Brice Turang. Turang has a stolen base in four of his last five games and the team seems to be giving him every opportunity to get to 50 on the year (he's currently at 45). When Milwaukee faced Pfaadt and the DBacks last week, Turang went 2-5 with a stolen base. With a milestone in sight and past success on record, I'm going to go with Turang recording one or more stolen bases tonight.
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MLB Pick for Diamondbacks at Brewers
- Brice Turang 1+ Stolen Base (+320 @ FanDuel Sportsbook)
MLB Best Bets Recap
- Brewers ML (+100 @ BetMGM)
- Diamondbacks-Brews Over 8.0 Runs (+115 @ DraftKings)
- Brice Turang 1+ Stolen Base (+320 @ FanDuel Sportsbook)
