MLB Bets Today: MLB Picks and Props for Thursday, Aug. 7
We have a short four-game slate Thursday, but our focus is some betting opportunities in the two evening contests.
2025 Betting Record: 26-27-1 (-1.76 units)
2025 Player Props Betting Record: 15-11 (+2.35 units)
Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates Best Bets
Pirates RHP Paul Skenes takes the hill for his 24th start of the season Thursday, and he checks in looking to bounce back from one of his rare so-so outings. The All-Star allowed four earned runs on five hits against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field his last time out. Naturally, the venue gives Skenes a bit of a mulligan right off the bat, and the fact he recorded eight strikeouts over his five frames underscores that he was still pretty dominant overall.
Skenes is now back in the friendly confines of PNC Park for Thursday's matchup against a Cincinnati Reds team that is 60-55 overall, but just 27-29 on the road. Since a 12-11 loss to Atlanta six games ago, Cincy has been quiet offensively, while scoring more than three runs just once in the ensuing five contests. Meanwhile, prior to his slight hiccup versus Colorado, Skenes had been on a roll, posting an 0.67 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 12.0 K/9 and 0.3 HR/9 across the 27 innings in his previous five starts.
Skenes has been dominant early in games, posting ERAs of 1.96 or less in the first four innings of games and a still impressive 2.45 figure in the fifth inning. The hard-throwing right-hander has held opposing batters to averages of .187 and .173 his first and second time through the order, respectively, and he boasts a 1.87 ERA and 0.85 WHIP across 62.2 home innings this season.
Skenes has gone at least six innings this season in 15 of 23 starts, and while opposing starter RHP Brady Singer comes in with a 9-8 record, he has a 5.73 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over 48.2 road innings while pitching to .253, .309 and .282 BAAs in the first, third and fifth innings, respectively. Opposing batters have generated collective OPS figures of .767 and .804 their first and second time through in games against Singer as well, putting me in the camp of an SGP where Pittsburgh's up by at least one at the end of five innings with relatively low combined run total.
- SGP: Pirates moneyline- F5 and Under 5.5 runs- F5 (+105 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Paul Skenes Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-154 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
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Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves Best Bets
Atlanta's season has been the epitome of underachievement considering the talent on its roster, and in a microcosm of how far things have fallen, Brian Snitker's squad is a home underdog to the Miami Marlins, as the red-hot RHP Eury Perez takes the hill for the visitors against 38-year-old journeyman RHP Carlos Carrasco.
Nevertheless, this is a scenario where there could be some value to be had. Perez has been virtually unhittable since the start of July, posting a 4-1 record, 1.06 ERA, 0.68 WHIP, 9.8 K/9 and 0.3 HR/9 over his last six starts. The precocious righty has only given up as much as three earned runs in three of 10 starts, with one of those instances coming against Atlanta in Miami back on June 21.
Perez's one other career start at Truist Park came back in his rookie 2023 campaign, when he was lit up for six earned runs on seven hits over one-third of an inning. In large part because of that outing, current Atlanta hitters have a collective .350 average and 1.059 OPS across 22 career plate appearances against him.
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Carrasco was demoted by the New York Yankees after a rocky start to the season, but he fared well at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre with a 4-1 record, 2.35 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 0.6 HR/9 from June 8 to July 26, and upon arriving in Atlanta, he then delivered a six-inning quality start versus the Reds in his team debut last Thursday.
Atlanta has scored at least four runs in five of the last nine games and rang up 10 runs in one of its two games against the Marlins this season. Miami relievers have also pitched to a 4.79 ERA, .291 BAA and .344 wOBA thus far in August, so the prospect of Atlanta cobbling together at least four runs is on the table, as is an SGP that banks in a lowish-scoring first five innings where Atlanta is at least even with Miami.
MLB Picks for Marlins vs Atlanta
- Atlanta Over 3.5 runs (-118 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- SGP: Atlanta +0.5 - F5 and Under 6.5 runs- F5 (+130 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
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MLB Picks Recap
- SGP: Pirates moneyline- F5 and Under 5.5 runs- F5 (+105 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Paul Skenes Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-154 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Atlanta Over 3.5 runs (-118 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- SGP: Atlanta +0.5 - F5 and Under 6.5 runs- F5 (+130 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
