MLB Best Bets Today: MLB Betting Picks for Wednesday, July 2
2025 Betting Record: 16-18-1 (-3.52 units)
2025 Player Props Betting Record: 13-9 (+2.85 units)
On Wednesday's big slate, I'm focused on a night game from each circuit for which I have contrasting offensive expectations.
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Best MLB Bets Today
MLB Picks for Brewers at Mets (Game 2)
- Brewers moneyline - F3 (-125 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Brewers Over 2.5 runs - F5 (+110 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
The bulk of the spotlight in this second game of a doubleheader between the NL rivals will fall on Brewers starter Jacob Misiorowski, who'll be looking to extend the torrid start to his MLB career. While he factors into my thinking here, I'm much more honed in on the vulnerabilities his opposite number, fellow rookie Blake Tidwell.
The right-hander's early big-league experiences have been the diametric opposite of Misiorowski's, as Tidwell has a 10.13 ERA, 2.44 WHIP, 6.8 BB/9 and 1.7 HR/9 across his first 10.2 big-league innings. Those numbers aren't necessarily outliers stemming from a small sample, either, as he posted a 5.44 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 1.5 HR/9 over the 147.1 innings he's logged at Triple-A Syracuse since the start of the 2024 minor-league season.
Given the significant disparity between the body of work of these two starters – Misiorowski comes in with a 3-0 record, 1.13 ERA, 0.63 WHIP, 10.7 K/9 and 0.6 HR/9 – betting on the Brewers being up by at least one run at the end of the first three innings certainly is within the range of outcomes.
Additionally, with Milwaukee averaging 3.05 runs per first five innings per road game (tied for 1st in MLB), the second prop banking on them hitting at least that figure is also very much in play.
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MLB Picks for Royals at Mariners
- Under 2.5 runs - F3 (-154 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- SGP: Logan Gilbert 6+ Strikeouts and Alt. Total Under 4.5 runs- F5 (-106 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
In contrast to NL clash that was just broken down, this AL battle features a pair of stingy starting pitchers that have the ability to make offense sparse while they're on the hill. Impressive rookie southpaw Noah Cameron will toe the rubber for the Royals, while veteran right-hander Logan Gilbert will look to get his season mark over .500 for the hosts.
Cameron's 2-4 record is belied by a 2.79 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. Additionally, his body of work on the road has been superior to that at Kauffman Stadium so far, as Cameron carries a 1.11 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 0.4 HR/9 across 24.1road innings into Wednesday night's matchup versus a Mariners squad that sports a 27.0% strikeout rate and .296 wOBA against lefties at home since May 1.
Cameron has also been very good his first and second time through an opponent's order, holding hitters to .164 and .195 averages, respectively, in those splits. He's also pitched to a .167 BAA with runners in scoring position overall, underscoring his ability to wiggle out of trouble
Meanwhile, Gilbert has just a 2-2 mark in his own right, but he's sporting a 2.35 ERA, 0.62 WHIP and 13.2 K/9 over 30.2 home innings. He's been more hittable in his last two starts while facing the Rangers and Cubs on the road, but prior to that pair of turns, he'd allowed two earned runs or less in six of his first seven starts of the season and authored a pair of 10-strikeout outings at home.
Gilbert has also been very good the first two times through a lineup, holding opposing hitters to respective .190 and .164 averages his first and second time through the order. Gilbert has also recorded at least six Ks in all but one start this season and has been particularly effective at missing bats at home, putting bets that bank on a low-scoring early portion of the game and him getting to that threshold again in play.
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MLB Picks Recap
- Brewers moneyline - F3 (-125 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Brewers Over 2.5 runs - F5 (+110 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Mariners-Royals Under 2.5 runs - F3 (-154 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- SGP: Logan Gilbert 6+ Strikeouts and Alt. Total Under 4.5 runs- F5 (-106 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
