This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets Today: MLB Picks and Props for Wednesday, August 14
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2024 Regular Season Betting Record: 6-9 (-3.91 RW Bucks)
2024 Regular Season Props Betting Record: 26-25 (+1.16 RW Bucks)
I'm focusing on the last game of the night on a split slate Wednesday, where I'm banking on a pitcher's duel between two arms that can miss plenty of bats presenting some solid betting opportunities.
Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants Best Bets
Brian Snitker's Atlanta squad has at times been a shadow of its 2023 self offensively this season, particularly since the All-Star break. Not only are they 10-14 straight up in that span, but they've scored four runs or fewer in 14 of those 24 contests, getting shut out altogether in two instances.
Their current visit to spacious, pitcher-friendly Oracle Park has seen Atlanta muster a combined five runs over 20 innings in the first two games. The outlook doesn't get much brighter for them Wednesday, either, even with the talented Michael Harris set to return from an extended stay on the injured list. Atlanta is drawing a matchup with southpaw Robbie Ray, who's bounced back from Tommy John surgery to post a 2-1 record with a 3.98 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 12.4 K/9 across his first four starts.
Ray has recorded at least seven strikeouts in three of those turns, and he built up to six innings and 105 pitches in his most recent start against the Tigers. The missed bats are nothing new for the veteran left-hander, who'd generated double-digit K/9 figures in seven seasons before 2024 during his long career. Ray draws a matchup very conducive to strikeouts Wednesday, as Atlanta has gone down at a 31.6 percent clip versus left-handers on the road since July 1, the third-highest figure in MLB in that split during that span.
Additionally, it's worth noting the Giants may have a challenging task ahead of them as well while being opposed by right-hander Grant Holmes. The rookie, who's impressed at the Triple-A level the last two seasons, has been solid since arriving in the majors. Holmes has yet to qualify for a decision but holds a 3.79 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over 13 appearances (three starts). Moreover, after posting 10.9 and 11.2 K/9 figures in the aforementioned pair of Triple-A stints, he's managed a 9.7 K/9 in his first foray against big-league bats thus far. Holmes has also done a good job limiting contact overall, surrendering 33 hits – including only three homers – over 38 innings, and he hasn't hurt himself with a respectable 2.1 BB/9.
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The Giants are averaging a middling 4.3 runs per home game for the season and have an implied team total of just 3.9 runs for Wednesday. With Atlanta's implied total at only 3.8 itself, bets on Ray's achievable strikeout and outs recorded props along with a third that supports the idea of scoring being suppressed in the first five innings all correlate well.
And finally, while it's a bit of an outlier given everything discussed, I don't mind taking a shot on a Marcell Ozuna total bases prop at plus-money. While I expect Ray to be effective, he's always been prone to some hard contact, and Ozuna checks in with a .333 average, .419 wOBA and 171 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season.
MLB Best Bets for Atlanta vs. Giants
- Under 4.5 Runs - F5 (-135 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Robbie Ray Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-148 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Robbie Ray Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-128 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Marcell Ozuna 2+ Total Bases (+120 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
