This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets Today: Expert MLB Picks for April 9
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2024 Regular Season Betting Record: 3-3 (-0.24 RW Bucks)
We have a plentiful Tuesday slate on tap in MLB, and I'll hone in on three player props for evening games that I think could pay some solid dividends.
White Sox vs Guardians Best Bets
The Guardians' Logan Allen came into the season with elevated expectations after putting together a rock-solid rookie 2023 campaign. The young lefty forged a 7-8 record, but it was accompanied by a 3.81 ERA and serviceable-for-a-rookie 22.2 percent strikeout rate.
What's more, Allen showed an impressive ability for a young pitcher to hang in well into games, going at least 5.2 innings in half of his 24 starts. Allen has gotten off to an even better start this season as well, posting a 2-0 record, 2.31 ERA and 1.11 WHIP while allowing a middling .219 xBA and 25.7 percent hard-hit rate.
Allen gets an excellent opportunity to extend his strong start to the season Tuesday, as the White Sox have gotten off to a dreadful 1-9 start and are already struggling significantly against left-handed pitching — Chicago has posted a 35.9 percent strikeout rate, .153 average, .225 wOBA and -4.6 wRAA versus southpaws in a small sample of 64 plate appearances.
With Allen's ability to get outs consistently and a solid offense backing him up, I'm in the camp of the Over on his Outs Recorded prop.
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MLB Picks for White Sox vs Guardians
- Logan Allen Over 16.5 Outs Recorded (-125 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
Mets vs Braves Best Bets
The Braves have faced some early-season adversity but are still off to a solid start, going 6-3 over their first nine games. However, the reigning NL MVP has had some atypical struggles at the plate, with Ronald Acuna posting a lackluster .222 average and .278 slugging percentage through his first 42 plate appearances.
Naturally, Acuna is bound to bounce back at any moment, considering his talent and the fact he's still generating an impressive 43.5 percent hard-hit rate thus far despite the struggles. Some of Acuna's difficulties this season have stemmed from a sharp increase in strikeout and chase rate, but he's facing a pitcher to start the game Tuesday who shouldn't present too daunting a challenge in that regard.
Mets starter Adrian Houser has had a sub-8.0 K/9 in each of the last four seasons, and he's had a heap of trouble with Acuna over the course of his career. The talented outfielder has posted a .583 average over 13 career encounters against Houser, making this total bases prop an attractive one for me Tuesday.
MLB Picks for Mets vs Braves
- Ronald Acuna Over 1.5 Total Bases (-125 on Bet365 Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
Diamondbacks vs Rockies Best Bets
Like many pitchers, Rockies starter Cal Quantrill has had a rough introduction to Coors Field, allowing nine earned runs on 13 hits over his first two starts, which have both come at home. The right-hander is certainly a quality pitcher, but it's no surprise there's an acclimation period given the unique conditions in his new home park.
The Diamondbacks, who have had their share of struggles early while posting a 4-7 record, have had success with one of their offseason additions in Eugenio Suarez. The slugger has been impressive thus far in his return to the NL after a two-year stay in Seattle, and he now gets a crack at a pitcher he's enjoyed plenty of success against in the past in Quantrill.
Suarez owns a career .429 average in 15 career encounters with Quantrill, striking out just twice in that sample. He's knocked in three runs during that span as well, and Arizona has an implied team total of 6.8 runs and rising as of midday Tuesday.
Suarez posted a .277 average with men in scoring position last season with the Mariners on his way to 96 RBI, and he's already knocked in seven runs this season while posting a .444 average in his 12 plate appearances in that same split.
With a plus-money price and Suarez also amply capable of cashing this bet with one swing of the bat, I'm in the camp of jumping on the opportunity.
MLB Picks for Diamondbacks vs Rockies
- Eugenio Suarez Over 0.5 Total RBI (+123 on BetRivers Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Logan Allen Over 16.5 Outs Recorded (-125 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
- Ronald Acuna Over 1.5 Total Bases (-125 on Bet365 Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Eugenio Suarez Over 0.5 Total RBI (+123 on BetRivers Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
