This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
Friday's main slate at FanDuel is a massive 13-gamer that gets underway at an earlier 6:40 p.m. ET. Paul Skenes ($11,200) leads three pitchers priced in the five-figure range, with five more coming in at $9,000 or greater. The Rockies return home to face the red-hot Padres, giving us our highest run total at 11.5. Pittsburgh-Seattle is the low point at a mere 6.5 runs, with all other games settling in between 8.0 and 9.5 runs. FanDuel currently doesn't have listed starters for the Tigers or Dodgers.
Rain is of concern in Pittsburgh, with some in-game precipitation possible in Detroit. No major wind appears present, but there could be some relative help for offenses in Philadelphia and Baltimore.
Pitching
Aaron Nola, PHI vs. WAS ($9,600): Loyal readers know the exercise here, how low can we go in the pay-up territory and still get elite returns? Nola is the answer for me. Yes, others also have favorable matchups, and, yes, Nola's current form is very concerning (one quality start in his last five, four games with just four strikeouts), so perhaps that leads to lower usage. The Phillies are massive -270 favorites, and Nola will get run support (more on that below). Washington has just a 2.8 run expectancy, and we've got divisional familiarity with current Washington batters hitting just .169 (13-for-77) with a .408 OPS off him, striking out at a 23.8 percent rate. He's in line for a bounce-back outing.
Jose Soriano, LAA vs. ATL ($8,700): Truth be told, I don't like much below the $9,000 tier here, so we're likely going to be paying for an arm and hunting cheaper offense. But Soriano is in a terrific grove, earning four quality starts in his last five with all four of those outings going for at least 40 fantasy points. Atlanta's offense is getting healthier, but they were just shut out Thursday for the third time this month. They have a below-average 93 wRC+ off righties, and we know their swing-and-miss tendencies, entering Friday with a 24.8 percent strikeout rate. This is more of a GPP play, as we know the Braves are capable of hitting four homers and blowing Soriano up. But Soriano has a 59.4 percent ground ball rate and allows just 0.66 HR/9. Atlanta hasn't been great at manufacturing runs.
Ryne Nelson, ARI at TB ($8,300): Tampa's offense profiles very similarly to Atlanta's statistically, entering the day with a 24.1 percent strikeout rate off righties and a 91 wRC+. If that holds we can consider Nelson in tournaments for slight savings to Soriano. Nelson hasn't been quite as consistent, but he's shown elite upside of late with four games of 42+ fantasy points in his last seven, three times striking out nine. Nelson has been marginally better on the road. While the betting odds have this game as a pick'em, Arizona is as hot as any team going right now. I'd side with Nelson getting some support and a chance to earn the win.
Top Targets
The pricing up of bats in Coors Field appears to be with secondary Padres bats, making Jurickson Profar ($4,000) a fair pay-up option. Six of the seven homers Rockies starter Cal Quantrill has allowed at home have come to lefties, who have an above-average .851 OPS off him. While Profar is just 4-for-12 off Quantril, two of those have left the yard. There's BvP success from Ha-Seong Kim ($3,300) and Kyle Higashioka ($3,400), but that's where the Coors Field pricing makes it more challenging to back them.
Freddie Freeman ($3,800) has six hits in his last three games but has just one homer in his last 14. Perhaps that changes Friday against Miles Mikolas, who has a 6.38 home ERA (4.78 xFIP), allowing a .893 OPS and 1.64 HR/9 to lefties. Pair that with Freeman owning him to the tune of 8-for-17 with three homers and a 1.559 OPS, and there's a clear appeal.
Marlins' starter Roddery Munoz is being pelted by lefties, allowing a .434 wOBA and 1.052 OPS with 2.45 HR/9. Francisco Lindor ($3,800) is riding a nine-game hitting streak where he's collected 15 total hits, seemingly setting him up for a nice floor with upside potential.
Bargain Bats
It won't make for a traditional stack based on lineup position, but if we want to target those heavily favorable lefty vs. righty splits from Munoz, Jeff McNeil ($2,800) and Jesse Winker ($2,800) enter the discussion – the former for contact/floor and the later for power/ceiling.
Baltimore pounded Boston starter Cooper Criswell for seven runs and seven hits across four innings earlier in the year. Given their lineup depth and that Criswell is making his first start in just under a month, stacking Orioles is difficult, so we need to see their lineup and identify opportunities. Colton Cowser ($3,200) and Ryan O'Hearn ($2,800) stand out based on anticipated batting order spots, as does Eloy Jimenez ($2,700) if he gets to start.
We shouldn't trust Aaron Civale to have a clean outing, something he hasn't done all season. Will Brennan ($2,400) is hitting second in Cleveland's lineup and has hit safely in six straight. Minimal upside at best, but for the price, we don't need much.
Stacks to Consider
Phillies vs. Patrick Corbin (Nationals): Bryce Harper ($4,000), Alec Bohm ($3,400), J.T. Realmuto ($3,100)
Look at the cheapest arm on the slate and stack against him – what a novel concept. But it has clear merit here for multiple reasons. Corbin comes in with a 6.68 road ERA, allowing a .407 wOBA and .956 OPS to righties and .365/.858 to lefties. He's allowed 18 runs and 28 hits in his last three starts, lasting just 13 innings. The Phillies pounded out 13 runs and 17 hits yesterday, forcing the Nationals to need five innings from their bullpen. We're either going to get limited options from that pen once Corbin is lifted, or he's left in when he shouldn't to eat innings. Then there's the extensive BvP success of this trio. They're a combined 36-for-105 (.342) off Corbin, all with at least a 1.039 OPS. This should be a 3-4-5 lineup stack where they can feed off each other early and often.
Reds vs. Michael Lorenzen (Royals): Elly De La Cruz ($4,100), Spencer Steer ($3,400), TJ Friedl ($3,100)
Lorenzen has a 3.79 ERA overall, but it comes with a 5.02 FIP and he's allowed 16 runs across his last 24.2 innings. Cincinnati enters Friday with a 5.5 expected run total, putting them in the upper tier on this slate, albeit without targetable splits versus Lorenzen. This is for GPPs only and we're backing the run total more than anything else. However, it seemingly comes with more power potential overall than the Phillies above, lower roster percentages and costs just $100 more. De La Cruz has a .390 wOBA, 148 wRC+ and .274 ISO off righties, and is a fine singular play. Steer and Friedl have a .204 and .217 ISO, respectively, and they'll hit together. Steer has nine hits and three homers in his last seven and Friedl hit three homers in that same seven-game span. Perhaps this is a reach, and it's absolutely boom or bust, but take a small chance if you're playing multiple entries.
