This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
A slightly reduced nine-game slate awaits Friday evening, with first pitch at 7:05 p.m. ET. Pitching comes at a premium cost here more than usual. Five arms are priced in the five figures, with three going for $11,000 or more. That's a massive number to pay. If you're doing so, you sure as heck can't miss. Run totals are low across the slate, with only three games presenting at 9.0 runs or greater, led by Braves-Dodgers at 9.5. Three games come with a slate-low 7.5 run total.
Weather looks suspect in Cleveland, which is a shame because I've highlighted the Guardians' starter below. We'll need to keep an eye on this as game time approaches, as a postponement is certainly possible. Wind could be favorable in Oakland, otherwise, there shouldn't be much weather impact.
Pitching
Dylan Cease, SD at ARI ($11,000): It's far too obvious that if we're paying up for pitching we want Sonny Gray against the White Sox. No analysis is needed there, great form in a great matchup. But if we're looking to be different while getting high floor/ceiling potential, Cease is my preferred choice for the slight price discount. Arizona doesn't strike out a ton at just 20.1 percent off righties, but they've been downright bad otherwise, earning a .293 wOBA and 87 wRC+. Cease has been dominant against right-handed bats, allowing a .143 wOBA and .300 OPS to them to date, something Arizona's lineup is full of. He's also worked six innings in five of his six outings, putting a quality start well in play.
Tanner Bibee, CLE vs. LAA ($9,400): The Angels without Mike Trout have moved into the same tier as the White Sox and other paltry offenses we can back pitching against nightly. And even with Trout, they come into Friday with a 25.0 percent strikeout rate against righties with an average .308 wOBA and 98 wRC+. Bibee is surging, with 17 strikeouts, two runs and seven hits allowed across his last 12.2 innings.
JP Sears, OAK at MIA ($7,900): I think both sides of this pitching matchup merit consideration for GPP paydowns. Both offenses are bad, with Oakland presenting slightly better than Miami, but striking out far more against lefties. But Sears has shown somewhat better than his adversary, somehow earning 22 fantasy points while allowing seven runs last time out, but also earning just 18 points while allowing one run two games prior. Sears has dialed up his strikeouts lately, fanning 15 in 12.1 innings against the Yankees and Orioles, far better offenses than Miami, who come with a pathetic .258 wOBA, 63 wRC+ and .095 ISO off lefties.
Top Targets
Atlanta's offense is a conundrum. We know they're elite, but the form is downright terrible. Dodgers starter Gavin Stone is getting crushed by lefties to the tune of a .415 wOBA and .923 OPS, putting Ozzie Albies ($3,900) and Matt Olson ($3,700) in play. Albies quietly has hit safely in six straight but has only reached double-digit fantasy points twice in that span, making him a stable floor play. Olson has no form, but big fly potential.
Staying in the same game, Charlie Morton can't get Mookie Betts ($4,800) or Freddie Freeman ($3,400) out, as they're a combined 23-of-59 (.390) off of him. Given the massive price disparity, Freeman seems like a must-use player.
With most attention focused on Dodgers-Braves, this slate sets up nicely to pivot to lower-used top Rangers and Royals options in a game that has a decent run total of 9.0. Bobby Witt ($4,000) is in fine form, collecting nine hits, seven RBI and six runs during a current six-game hitting streak. Adolis Garcia ($4,000) is seemingly a nightly option for ceiling thanks to his power, but he has a far lower floor.
Bargain Bats
If we're buying into Stone's struggles against lefties above, Michael Harris ($3,300) or Jarred Kelenic ($2,400) offer cheaper ins to Atlanta's lineup. Harris for the upside, but Kelenic is intriguing as an option to turn this lineup over and benefit from the top of the order.
Anthony Volpe ($3,200) has just a .331 wOBA off righties, so we'll have to trust Reese Olson's struggles in this spot to back him. Olson has struggled on the road with a 4.80 ERA and 5.47 xFIP, allowing same-handed bats to post a .441 wOBA and 1.020 OPS against him.
If we're not buying into the cheap pitching options and low run total in Oakland-Miami, there are a plethora of cheap bats to consider. Miami doesn't have an option that presents favorably against lefties, but the A's do, with Esteury Ruiz ($2,900), Tyler Nevin ($2,600) and Abraham Toro ($2,600) all having at least a .382 wOBA and 154 wRC+ off southpaws. Nevin and Ruiz have terrific isolated power numbers as well.
Stacks to Consider
Red Sox vs. Chris Paddack (Twins): Wilyer Abreu ($3,200), Rafael Devers ($3,200), Jarren Duran ($3,100)
Paddack's 5.88 ERA comes with a 4.21 xFIP, so perhaps he's not as awful as the initial stats suggest, but we have to consider he's only been good against the White Sox. He comes with a .414 wOBA and .935 OPS allowed to lefties, which the Red Sox are rich in, especially at the top of their lineup, which we're targeting here. And the splits work, especially given the price. Abreu comes with a .428 wOBA, 175 wRC+ and .231 ISO. Devers looks to be slipping, but he sits at .409/162/.241 off righties. Duran doesn't present as favorably, but if we're going with a traditional top-of-the-order stack, he gives us a third lefty at a favorable price in the right spot.
Cardinals vs. Brad Keller (White Sox): Willson Contreras ($3,300), Nolan Arenado ($2,900), Paul Goldschmidt ($2,900)
This isn't a super stackable slate, as the low run totals noted in the intro seem to confirm. We don't know how deep into the game Keller will go having just 1.2 MLB innings under his belt this year, so we won't lean too heavily on splits against right-handers. But the White Sox bullpen enters Friday with a 4.76 ERA and 1.58 WHIP, so going in on the Cardinals offense seems to make sense, and they're all priced cheaply.
It's looking like we're in the downturn of Arenado and Goldschmidt's careers, showing next to no power to date. But they're still middle-of-the-order, run-producing options who are at least making contact. Goldschmidt has hit safely in eight of his last 11 and Arenado in six of his last nine. Contreras gives us some potential thump and a third top-of-the-order bat, with this stack likely hitting 2-4-5.
