This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
Saturday's main slate at FanDuel is our typically smaller, seven-game contest, but we've got a later start, with first pitches coming between 7:05 and 9:07 p.m. EST.
Just three of the 14 listed starting pitchers are priced in five figures, though five more come in at at least $9,000, accounting for over half our choices. Two more sit in the $8k tier and then things drop off a cliff, suggesting we're not likely going to go cheap on the bump. Weather looks clear across the slate, with winds potentially blowing out in Oakland and Minnesota.
Run totals are sitting between 8.0 and 9.5, so there isn't much disparity across the slate.
Pitching
Logan Webb, SF at WSH ($10,800): All three of the top-priced arms are in decent or better form, though all face matchups against low-strikeout teams, so there is some worry they won't provide the massive return we expect for the price. Washington has a minimal 18.9 percent strikeout rate, but they profile as the least likely to do serious damage with an 86 wRC+ and .301 wOBA off righties. That should set a decent floor for Webb. And if he can remain hot, his ceiling is arguably the highest. Webb has three straight quality starts and six in his last seven, showing a 67 FDP ceiling while reaching 40 FDP in five of those appearances.
Dylan Cease, CWS at MIN ($9,400): I'm expecting Reid Detmers to be the popular choice here against Pittsburgh, so I'm looking to get a little different in targeting Cease. Minnesota is a strikeout prone lineup, doing so at a massive 27.3 percent rate. They got to Lance Lynn yesterday, who'd had success against them previously, but I'm going right back to that well in hopes there isn't a repeat. The Twins lineup has a .189 average off Cease (20-for-106) with a .637 OPS. Furthermore, he's fanned 37 while walking 12, giving him a 31.4 percent strikeout rate.
Allan Winans, ATL at MIL ($6,500): There aren't great paydown choices Saturday, so if that's your overall strategy, why not go completely down to the bottom? Winans is a complete unknown, as the 27 year old will be making his major league debut here. He posted a 2.81 ERA at Triple-A, though that came with a 4.06 xFIP. His low strikeout rate (7.8 per nine) could play up against Milwaukee's 24.1 percent K rate, but Winans was has always been a groundball guy. The 49.6 percent rate he has this season is near the lowest of his career. If he can keep the ball down, limiting homers, there's a chance he can give us five or more innings with minimal damage. There's obviously the chance he implodes early, but we know the risk when paying this little for an arm.
Top Targets
While Milwaukee starter Adrian Houser has been slightly more vulnerable when facing lefties, Austin Riley ($3,600) is absolutely locked in and the price hasn't quite caught up to that. He's homered in four straight, with five total bombs, collecting eight hits, 13 RBI, and eight runs in that stretch.
Ronald Acuna's price seems to keep rising to almost unrosterable levels, which makes Shohei Ohtani ($4,500) somewhat of a bargain, comparatively. Teams are starting to pitch around him, with seven walks in his last two and at least one free pass in six straight. But he's still scored nine times in that stretch, creating a nice floor with what we know to be a massive upside if allowed to swing.
Christian Yelich ($3,800) is far and away the most trustworthy Milwaukee bat. His .395 wOBA and 150 wRC+ off righties while hitting atop the order make plenty of sense as a building block against the aforementioned Winans.
Bargain Bats
With Tommy Pham uncertain to be available, Brandon Nimmo ($3,300) could be the best option amongst Mets bats. He has a reasonable .350 wOBA off lefties, has four hits including two homers, five RBI and five runs in his six. Red Sox starter James Paxton has allowed eight runs in his last two starts, and has been far more getable for lefties, allowing a .373 wOBA against just .249 to righties.
CJ Abrams ($2,900) did it again Friday, homering and collecting two hits in a less than favorable matchup. He's got that again here facing Webb, but with 17 hits in his last 10 games, the price hasn't risen to fadable levels.
Cristian Javier isn't in good form, having allowed 21 runs across his last four starts, spanning just 15.2 innings. In no way am I suggesting stacking Athletic bats against him, but maybe a piece to round out lineups for cheap is doable. He's allowing a .368 wOBA to lefties, giving us ample choices. JJ Bleday ($2,500) and Seth Brown ($2,500) make sense as potential power options, while Tony Kemp ($2,400) has been decent out of the leadoff spot in place of injured Esteury Ruiz, collecting 10 hits in his last nine games.
Stack to Consider
Angels vs. Ryan Borucki/bullpen: Mickey Moniak ($3,400), Taylor Ward ($3,000), Zach Neto ($2,800)
The Pirates don't seem to know how they'll get eight or nine innings from their pitching today, so we aren't targeting Borucki as much as the entire bullpen, limiting split-stat preferences. Rather, we can target hot bats around Ohtani and reap the rewards of either his success or his walks. Moniak is riding an 11-game hitting streak, Ward has homered in two straight and hit safely in six of eight and Neto has a six-game hitting streak while hitting in front of Ohtani. I actually don't hate Pirate bats here off Detmers either for cheap. Los Angeles is hot overall, with at least five runs in four straight and at least seven in four of six. I don't think Pittsburgh simply rolls over.
