This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
FanDuel's Saturday main slate is a compact nine-gamer in which all games start within five minutes of each other, beginning at 4:05 p.m. EDT. All 18 pitchers listed appear to be confirmed, and it's a bit of a curious mix on the bump. We've got three arms priced in five-figures and only one more in the $9,000 tier, so it's not a deep set of premium arms. That doesn't seem to jive with the listed run totals, as Royals-Padres, Nationals-Guardians and Tigers-Red Sox tie for the high point at just 8.5 runs. With two-thirds of the games lower than that, we should be able to imply some value.
Weather does not appear to be a factor Saturday afternoon. Minor rain chances in Atlanta, but dry elsewhere, and winds are mainly single digits across the slate, with Atlanta being a possibly slight exception where a few gusts to the left could aid right-handed pull hitters.
Pitching
Kyle Bradish, BAL vs. TB ($9,600): You don't need me to tell you Chris Sale against Oakland is an elite play, but for $2,000 cheaper, it's feasible we can get similar upside from Bradish, who is off a massive 64 point fantasy outing. He boasts a career-high 11.9 K/9 ratio, and his minuscule 1.75 ERA is backed by a 2.12 FIP. There is some risk, so Bradish is best-suited for tournaments, as current Rays are hitting .304 with a .873 OPS against him, striking out 21.2 percent of the time. Bradish also hasn't worked deep often, earning just one quality start. But this Tampa offense has been in a funk for most of the season, entering Saturday with a .293 wOBA, 94 wRC+, .121 ISO and slightly higher 23.5 percent K rate off righties. This game has a low 7.5 run total, with Baltimore heavily favorite at (-162).
Michael Lorenzen, TEX at MIA ($8,100): The first middle-tier choice for me came down to Lorenzen and Ben Lively, and Lorenzen wins out based on the lower price and more consistent results, while Lively has shown more as a higher ceiling, lower floor option. Both face mediocre-at-best offenses, with Lorenzen getting a Marlins side that has a .297 wOBA, 92 wRC+, and .129 ISO. Lorenzen doesn't have strikeout upside, so we'll need clean innings. Walks have been a problem at 4.5 per nine, but Miami walks just 6.3 percent of the time against righties. Lorenzen has worked 6-plus innings in seven straight outings, earning five quality starts. So long as the knee issue that forced him from his last start isn't a factor, he's in line to do so again here, making 30 FDP the expectation.
Robert Gasser, MIL vs. CHW ($8,000): Here's another spot where we can potentially use betting lines to find an edge on the mound. This is another game in which the run total is at a slate-low 7.5, and the Brewers are pretty heavily favored (at -148) despite the presence of White Sox ace Garrett Crochet as their opposition. Gasser isn't missing any bats, striking out just 5.1 per nine across his four starts, but he's in the zone and creates contact, walking just 0.4 per nine while not allowing a home run while inducing a 47.3 percent ground ball rate. Chicago's offense is pathetic against lefties, ranking dead last with a .264 wOBA and 69 wRC+. They strike out at a 23.5 percent clip, so Gasser isn't likely to see a spike in his whiffs, but with quality starts in half of his appearances, there's a 5x return upside. He's about as low as I'd consider on the mound, though many might gravitate to the name recognition of Joe Musgrove ($7,000) thanks to the incredibly low price point.
Top Targets
We just mentioned Musgrove, and it's been a season-long struggle for him. Away from Petco, he has a 6.94 ERA, 5.63 FIP and 2.14 WHIP, allowing righties to post a .459 wOBA and 1.045 OPS. Queue up Bobby Witt ($4,500) and his .398 wOBA, 158 wRC+ and .232 ISO to build around Saturday. A mini-stack with Salvador Perez ($3,500) works nicely as well.
Make no mistake, Crochet has been very good for the White Sox. Perhaps that scares folks off of the top of the Brewers order. But Crochet is walking 4.0 lefties per nine, and has a 5.63 road ERA (5.13 FIP). Christian Yelich ($3,900) is ripping same-handed pitching to the tune of a .488 wOBA, 222 wRC+ and .355 ISO. He's fresh off a massive 5-for-6 game and likely comes with lower roster percentages than the big names around him.
Bargain Bats
David Fry ($3,400) continues to swing a hot bat, and the price isn't getting outlandish. He has an unsustainable .570 wOBA, 281 wRC+ and .413 ISO off lefties. Steven Kwan ($3,200) is second on the team with a .432 wOBA off lefties and gives us a second option to consider now that he's back from IL.
Based on prices, it's somewhat easy to stack Atlanta bats, but given their form, I think just grabbing a piece or two makes more sense. It's a small sample, just 30 batters faced, but A's starter Aaron Brooks is allowing a .436 wOBA and 1.015 OPS to lefties. Give me Michael Harris ($3,300) hitting atop this order and move on. He's hit safely in six of his last eight.
I'm tempted to stack Twins bats against Framber Valdez, especially for GPPs, as they're so cheap across the lineup, but ultimately they seem to lack the high-end power upside to truly explode. Still, Valdez has a 4.85 home ERA, 5.02 FIP and 1.42 WHIP. He's curiously been worst against same-handed bats, allowing lefties to post a .456 wOBA and 1.042 OPS, giving any of Max Kepler ($3,000), Edouard Julien ($2,900) and/or Trevor Larnach ($2,900) appeal. I'm also partial to Carlos Correa ($3,100) against his former club. He's 2-for-4 with a 1.250 OPS and four RBI off Valdez. This may need to wait until lineups come out, but taking two of these options based on their positions in the top of the order works, with Kepler having the best splits off lefties with a .404 wOBA and 162 wRC+.
Finally, Boston's Cooper Criswell doesn't have targetable splits, but his 4.19 ERA (3,80 FIP) shouldn't be overlooked. Detroit's lineup is missing some key pieces, but Riley Greene ($3,100) and his .370 wOBA, 142 wRC+ and .224 merits consideration.
Stack to Consider
Rangers vs. Ryan Weathers (Marlins): Adolis Garcia ($3,700), Marcus Semien ($3,600), Wyatt Langford ($2,900)
It was a struggle for me to find a recommended stack for this slate. Lots of low run totals, less than stellar matchups and ample value has me preferring the mini-stack route from multiple offenses. But if forced, let's consider the Rangers against Weathers. He's likely due some regression, sporting a 3.16 ERA against a slightly higher 4.23 FIP, and his .236 BABIP can't continue forever. Further, he's worse at home, with a 5.19 ERA (4.59 FIP), where he allows a .362 wOBA to righties against .226 to lefties. Garcia and Semien are in pretty bad form, and their .341/.382 wOBAs off lefties are just okay, so it's the matchup and that we can get those two for cheap around a hot Corey Seager that is the appeal. Langford and his likely sixth spot in the lineup doesn't make this a traditional stack with each hitter being around the others to feed off of. But we want a third right-handed bat, need some value, and Langford has more upside than Jonah Heim.
