MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel Plays and Strategy for Tuesday, June 18

MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel Plays and Strategy for Tuesday, June 18

This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.

A 10-game main slate is ahead Tuesday evening, with first pitch at 7:05 p.m. EDT. Of the 20 listed pitchers, only two come with five-figure price tags, with four more being in the $9,000 tier. You'd assume that would lead to some elevated offense, and the betting lines seem to suggest that as well. Blue Jays-Red Sox is our lowest expected run total at 7.5, while five games have totals of at least 9.0 runs, not surprisingly led by Dodgers-Rockies in Coors Field at 11.5.

Weather can be a factor Tuesday. Rain is possible to probable in Minnesota, so tread lightly with Twins and Rays players. If they play, we'll have some decent outbound winds. Wind looks strong in Chicago, but we know that can change so be sure to confirm closer to game time. Double-digit winds blowing across the diamond are expected in more ballparks than not, so we may just get that rare offense-heavy day.

Pitching

Framber Valdez, HOU at CWS ($9,700): There can't be a much more obvious target Tuesday than Valdez. The White Sox are where we target arms on a regular basis, coming in to the day with a .289 wOBA, 85 wRC+, 29.6 percent hard hit rate and 23.8 percent K rate off lefties. Valdez is in decent enough form following a rough start, earning quality starts in four of his last six. The only negative here appears to be likely high roster percentages.

Luis Severino, NYM at TEX ($9,000): Here's your riskier GPP option to pivot away from Valdez. Severino has turned in quality starts in three of his last four, allowing just one run in each of those outings. He's not a strikeout guy (6.9 per nine), which is fine as the Rangers fan just 19.9 percent of the time off righties. Severino keeps the ball on the ground (52.5 percent) which plays into the Rangers 42.0 percent ground ball rate, and he doesn't allow homers (just six all season). He's been better at home, so that's of minor concern, but he's also faired well against this lineup, with current Rangers being just 8-for-45 (.178) with a .445 OPS.

Spencer Schwellenbach, ATL vs. DET ($6,900): Schwellenbach is off his first quality start of his career, and has earned better than 20 fantasy points in two of his first three appearances. He's not missing a ton of bats since promotion, but showed propensity to do so in the minors, so there's hope for some upside still against a Tigers lineup with a 24.3 percent K rate off righties. Detroit also just doesn't scare anyone, coming in with a .682 OPS and .301 wOBA. The rookie has a chance to work five or more innings with minimal damage, while freeing up a ton of cap space for bats. Milwaukee's Tobias Myers ($7,900) merits consideration too if the price fits.

Top Targets

This obviously starts with Dodger studs in Coors Field, but is anyone seriously considering paying this price for Shohei Ohtani ($5,200)? Perhaps that gives him a low roster rate, but that's an unreal number. Freddie Freeman ($4,100) or Will Smith ($4,000) make more sense, but Rockies' starter Austin Gomber has been solid at home with a 3.14 ERA (4.63 xFIP), so we don't need to go overboard or force this.

Toronto's Chris Bassitt is allowing a .375 wOBA to lefties overall, which the Red Sox are chalk full of, making for an obvious stacking opportunity. But he's been slightly better at home against opposite-handed bats, so I'm very content to build around Rafael Devers ($3,800). He's earned double-digit fantasy points in four of his last five and is 3-for-8 with two homers off Bassitt.

Baltimore's lineup against Nestor Cortes is a collective 30-for-139 (.216) with a paltry .571 OPS. The exception is Adley Rutschman ($3,500) who is 8-for-15 (.533) with a 1.133 OPS. Pair that with his .492 wOBA, 228 wRC+ and .273 ISO off lefties, and there should be obvious appeal.

Finally, I can't get there with Heliot Ramos ($3,900) at this price, but there's no doubting his current form or that he's crushing lefties to the tune of a .625 wOBA, 318 wRC+ and .594 ISO. If the winds are indeed blowing out in Wrigley, well...

Bargain Bats

Austin Riley ($3,200) is on a heater, and his salary isn't really moving. He doubled twice Monday and is 8-for-15 with three homers, eight RBI, six runs scored and two walks over his last four games, and he draws Casey Mize, who is allowing a .432 wOBA and .995 OPS to righties on the road.

I've had Charlie Blackmon ($3,400) in this column far more often than I should have. Yet here we are again. He's hit safely in six straight and 14 of his last 17, collecting 25 hits overall. Pair that with an 18-for-50 (.360) and .960 OPS against Walker Buehler, and he's drawn me back in.

I'm tempted to stack Cubs on Tuesday, but facing Logan Webb and his 56.3 percent groundball rate seemingly negates the potential wind impact. Ian Happ ($3,400) and Seiya Suzuki ($3,200) are a collective 5-for-14 with a homer and two homers and three doubles off Webb. This duo also has 11 total hits over the last three games.

Stacks to Consider

Mets vs. Michael Lorenzen (Rangers): Francisco Lindor ($3,500), J.D. Martinez ($3,400), Pete Alonso ($3,300)

Converging trends here. The Mets are suddenly hot, scoring 14 runs Monday, resulting in their sixth straight win. Lorenzen has been super vulnerable to same-handed bats, allowing a .415 wOBA and .960 OPS overall, numbers that rise to .478/1.109 at home. Lindor is the outlier in this stack as a result, but he's put up 15.2 fantasy points or better in five of his last six. Martinez and Alonso give us some serious power potential that play into Lorenzen's weakness and collectively make for a 1-3-4 lineup stack, which is seemingly ideal at a very favorable price point.

Twins vs. Aaron Civale (Rays): Carlos Correa ($3,600), Max Kepler ($3,100), Byron Buxton ($2,900)

Civale appears a bit more unlucky than bad, as his road FIP sits at 4.50 against a 6.37 ERA. But those numbers aren't small regardless. He's allowing 1.7 HR/9 and has a career-high 41.2 percent fly ball rate. We need to watch rain here, which makes this risky, but there's also the potential for winds blowing out if they play. Correa is white hot, going 15-for-27 (.556) during his current eight-game hitting streak. The other two options are a bit more BvP, but also cheaper and give us the hope for additional exposure around Correa and Royce Lewis. Kepler is 7-for-19 (.368) off Civale, and while Buxton is just 3-for-13 (.231), he's homered twice off the Rays' starter. That's what we're looking for from him in these potential conditions.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Chris Bennett plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: k30kittles, DraftKings: k30kittles.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Chris Bennett
Bennett covers baseball, college football and college basketball for RotoWire. Before turning to fantasy writing, he worked in scouting/player development for the Atlanta Braves and Montreal Expos. He's also a fan of the ACC.
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