This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
A compact six-game main slate is on tap Saturday with FanDuel's main slate, with first pitch at 4:05 p.m. EDT. Three arms are priced in five-figures with just one more coming in at greater than $9,000, representing a third of our options.
Potential for rain is a slight concern. Winds appear favorable in Pittsburgh, San Francisco and Tampa, where we might find a slight offensive edge. The Rangers are the slate's biggest favorite, followed closely by the Rays and Phillies. Rays-Marlins is our highest expected scoring game at 9.0 runs, with Astros-Guardians our low point at 7.0.
Pitching
Ranger Suarez, PHI at PIT ($10,400): Per usual, all four of our pay-up options are there for good reason, great matchups and solid form. Suarez has reeled off five straight quality starts, allowing just four runs while striking out 27 across 32.2 innings. That strikeout rate could get a boost Saturday against a Pirates lineup that whiffs 28.1 percent of the time with only a 66 wRC+ off lefties, the third lowest rate across the league.
Gavin Williams CLE vs. HOU ($8,600): We're going to suggest the second piece in the slate's two lowest scoring games Saturday for our pay-down choices. This game has the lowest total, but the run expectancy for Houston is just 3.8, slightly above the Guardians' 3.5, and the moneyline is tight. The Astros have been swinging better of late but still rank 21st with just a league-average 100 wRC+. Williams' doesn't strike out a lot of opponents, but his ERA and xFIP are a full 1.00 better at home. He has two quality starts over his last three and has topped 40 FanDuel points in three of five. Taj Bradley ($8,900) is the safer, more popular choice against Miami.
Bryce Elder, ATL at SF ($7,500): At this point, we know exactly what Bryce Elder is; a serviceable fifth starter capable of five innings, maybe a little more, and three runs, maybe a little less. He's got a 51.3 percent ground ball rate, negating some of the wind we could see in San Francisco. The Giants have a 98 wRC+ off righties and a 4.5 run expectancy. That seemingly plays right into Elder giving up three across five frames. We can flirt with a 3x return and copious offensive spending.
Top Targets
The shine hasn't fully come off Andrew Heaney, but he's allowed seven runs in his last two starts and four or more in three of his last seven. He's actually struggled with lefties more than righties, but the Phillies big names crush southpaws. Kyle Schwarber ($4,200) has a team-best .453 wOBA, 153 wRC+ and .391 ISO, while Trea Turner ($3,800) sits at .400/158/.200.
Rangers bats have been untrustworthy all season, but they have a 5.1 run expectancy, the slate's second-highest. Wyatt Langford ($3,600) isn't game-to-game consistent, but his .378 wOBA, 147 wRC+ and .255 ISO are the team's best, by far.
Bargain Bats
It's a very small sample, just six innings, but Chicago's Adrian Houser's 0.00 home ERA comes with a 5.90 xFIP, and he's walking more than he's striking out. He's been slightly more vulnerable to lefties, so we can confidently target Vinnie Pasquantino ($2,700), who has a seven-game hitting streak in which he's driven in seven. Jac Caglianone ($2,500) is in play as well.
We can stay in the same game for some additional value considerations. Kansas City's Michael Wacha is allowing a 4.40 ERA on the road against 1.80 at home, where lefties have a .354 wOBA against him. Mike Tauchman ($3,200) has a .425 wOBA, 179 wRC+ and .235 ISO off lefties.
If you want to fade Elder, that's completely fine by me. He's been worse on the road and more vulnerable to same-handed hitters, allowing a .381 wOBA and .898 OPS. Wilmer Flores ($2,900) continues to drive in runs and isn't getting the fantasy love he likely deserves.
Stack to Consider
Rays vs. Ryan Weathers (Marlins): Junior Caminero ($3,400), Yandy Diaz ($2,900), Jose Caballero ($2,600)
This slate presents as one of the most difficult to stack that I've previewed all season. It's littered with obvious choices that are pricey, and some very untrustworthy, or deep, offenses. Tampa fits both of those profiles, and the matchup with Weathers isn't elite given his elite, yet limited, form. But the Rays are heavy favorites, and are just one of three offenses expected to score more than five runs (Phillies and Rangers the other two). Caminero gives us a power upside option, with five homers in his last eight, though a below average 89 wRC+ off lefties. Diaz and Caballero just offer some salary relief and help round out a 1-2-4 lineup stack. Caballero is 0-for-10 over his last three games on the heels of a 7-for-20 five-game heater, but has a fair .365 wOBA, 141 wRC+ and .222 ISO off lefties. Diaz hasn't been consistent all year, but his 101 wRC+ and .217 ISO are better than Caminero's, and he has nine hits over his last seven games.
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