This is a unique slate from a scheduling standpoint. Most Thursdays are light due to teams traveling, but we have nine games on this card. That's a higher number than usual, but the games are all at different times. That's why FanDuel has given us a strange slate to dissect, combining day and night games to make up the main slate. We have to get our lineups in early, but it's a fun one to talk about!
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Pitching
Sean Manaea, NYM at WAS ($8,100)
Manaea has struggled over the last few weeks, but that's an outlier. The lefty has a 3.66 ERA and 1.10 WHIP since signing with the Mets last season and allowed just four total runs through his first four starts this season. The last three haven't been up to par, but a matchup with Washington's woeful offense should get him back on track. The Nationals rank 20th in runs scored, 22nd in OBP, 24th in OPS and 25th in wOBA. In their two matchups last season, Manaea scored 37 and 40 FD points, throwing seven one-run innings in both of those.
Brandon Young, BAL vs. HOU ($7,400)
How often do you see a pitcher that just flirted with a perfect game be the cheapest pitcher on a slate? That's what we have here with Young, because his 5.68 ERA and 1.49 WHIP are nothing worth writing home about. The good news is that this guy is starting to turn things around, scoring at least 26 FanDuel points in three of his last four starts. Those three starts were against the Cubs, Blue Jays and Astros, and Young squares off with the 'Stros again here. That first start happened to be the game in which he threw eight one-hit innings, part of a trend that has seen Houston score just 14 runs over its last eight games and two runs across its last four fixtures.
Top Targets
Cody Bellinger, NYY (vs. Lucas Giolito) $3,600
Not enough people are talking about the bounce-back season from Belly. The 2019 NL MVP has struggled since then, but something has changed in New York. Bellinger is on pace to reach 30 homers and 15 steals, hitting four of those dingers over the last week. He also has a .303 AVG and .922 OPS across his last 49 fixtures. The best part about this is that he has the platoon advantage against Giolito, with the righty registering a 4.19 ERA and 1.28 WHIP across his last six starts. That's not terrible, but his 6.42 ERA and 1.63 WHIP through his first seven starts are. If you want to stack the Yanks against Giolito, Aaron Judge ($4,700), Jazz Chisholm ($3,500) and Giancarlo Stanton ($3,500) are all in play.
Francisco Lindor, NYM (vs. MacKenzie Gore) $3,400
Lindor is one of the best switch hitters in the sport, but he's always been a little better against lefties. In over 2,000 plate appearances against southpaws, Lindor has a .281 AVG and .823 OPS. That pairs beautifully with his recent form, posting a .571 OBP, 1.038 SLG and 1.610 OPS across his last six outings. We've been waiting for the All-Star to get hot, but that's beyond scorching. It's not like Gore's recent form is going to keep us away, with the lefty providing an 8.13 ERA and 1.81 WHIP across his last six starts.
Bargain Bats
Alec Burleson, STL (vs. Joe Boyle) $3,100
The Cardinals' offense has struggled at times this season, but it's not Burleson's fault. The everyday three-hole hitter in St. Louis has a .287 AVG and .793 OPS this season. He also comes into this matchup with a .354 AVG and .872 OPS across his last 12 games. That already makes Burleson an immense value, but he also has the platoon advantage against Boyle. Burleson has a .290 AVG and .816 OPS against righties this year, while Boyle has a 9.22 ERA and 1.98 WHIP across his last four starts. If you want to stack St. Louis, we'd use Ivan Herrera ($3,100), Willson Contreras ($3,000), and Lars Nootbaar ($2,900).
Ryan O'Hearn, SD (vs. Justin Verlander) $3,000
O'Hearn was a sneaky addition by San Diego at the deadline, and he's hit between fourth and sixth whenever they've faced a righty since. That's a prominent lineup spot behind numerous All-Stars, with O'Hearn collecting a .370 OBP and .830 OPS in a breakout campaign. He also has a .798 OPS against righties over the last three years, while posting a 1.000 OPS over the last week. That's all you can ask for from such an affordable player, and he gets a matchup against a 42-year-old with a 1-9 record. We'll dive into that more below.
Stacks to Consider
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants (Verlander): Fernando Tatis ($3,600), Manny Machado ($3,500), O'Hearn ($3,000), Xander Bogaerts ($2,900)
It sounds bizarre to stack against a guy like Verlander, but this is not the Cy Young winner of the past. The veteran has a 4.23 ERA and an unsightly 1.42 WHIP. His ERA was flirting with 5.00 a few weeks ago before some cupcake matchups, but San Diego is far from that. The Padres rank eighth in OBP and look like a different lineup after some of their trade deadline acquisitions.
If we're going to stack San Diego, we have to kickstart it with Tatis. The superstar leads the team with 11.7 FanDuel points per game, showcasing one of the best power-speed combos in the sport. Machado is a perennial All-Star as well, accruing a .298 AVG and .857 OPS since May 3. We already talked about O'Hearn, but Bogaerts has a .373 OBP and .868 OPS across his last 53 outings.
