MLB Divisional Series Bets: Expert MLB Picks for Tuesday, October 8

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Published on October 8, 2024

MLB Divisional Series Bets: Expert MLB Picks for Tuesday, October 8

Year-to-Date Record: 168-172-1
Prior Article: 1-3 ( -1.77 units)

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MLB Postseason Betting Tips

PITCHING IMPACT

A lower run-scoring environment means you want to focus on under run totals, pitcher hits allowed and over strikeouts. Avoid laying -1.5 runs unless it is an extreme situation.

BULLPEN USAGE

You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game in the regular season. In the postseason it goes down as teams have a day off between games. Bullpens are critical to postseason success and should be heavily taken into consideration.

HITTER PROPS

Be careful with hitter props because every team is throwing their best pitchers. We are dealing with some of the best MLB teams. I will look only at home run + runs + RBI props on a top-four hitter in the playoffs.

Don't visit the best online sportsbooks unless you know what the latest and most competitive MLB odds are.

MLB Unit Betting Guide

Here is a basic guideline I use when it comes to betting on baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet:

1.5 - 2.0 units (Best Bets - typically a full game total or ML/RL play)
1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals Strongest Plays, System Plays)
0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)

Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets

We have division rivals in both series today, which means you can lean on head-to-head data to make handicapping decisions.

Aaron Nola had two polar opposite starts against the Mets this season:

May 14: 9 innings, 0 runs, 4 hits allowed, 8 strikeouts, 0 walks

September 13: 4.1 innings, 6 runs, 6 hits allowed, 7 strikeouts, 2 walks

Nola has traditionally had better numbers at home versus the road but his numbers at Citi Field have been strong (3.28 ERA, 1.03 WHIP in 14 career starts).

Sean Manaea had three starts against the Phillies; two solid starts and one bad one. He totaled 16.2 innings across those three starts, recording a 5.40 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 15 strikeouts and two walks. The top five Phillies batters have had success against him – a combined 17-for-56 (.303 average), seven home runs, 11 RBI, 12 strikeouts and one walk.

This series has been an exciting back-and-forth in the first two games, and Citi Field is going to be rocking tonight. The game has been a tough one to handicap, but even though we have two solid pitchers I like the bats to show up tonight.

MLB Picks for Phillies at Mets

Phillies/Mets Over 7.0 Runs for 1 Unit (-100 at BetMGM)
Both Teams To Score 3+ Runs for 1 Unit (+135 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres

This series has been turned up a few notches after Game 2 with the Jurickson Profar "hidden ball" home run robbery, Manny Machado tossing a ball toward the Dodgers' dugout and Dodgers fans throwing trash on the field.

This matchup is the key one I had circled because of the huge mismatch in pitching, showing how short the Dodgers are. The Padres are going with their "ace" in Michael King, while the Dodgers are rolling out Walker Buehler, who is 1-6 with a 5.38 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 75 innings.

Both offenses are power-centric and we have seen that on display in the first two games. I think we get more of the same in Game 3, especially on the Padres' side early and often.

MLB Picks for Dodgers at Padres

Padres -0.5 Runs F5 for 1 Unit (-115 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Padres Over 2.5 Runs F5 for 1 Unit (+110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

MLB Best Bets Today Recap

Phillies/Mets Over 7.0 Runs for 1 Unit (-100 at BetMGM)
Both Teams (Phillies/Mets) To Score 3+ Runs for 1 Unit (+135 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Padres -0.5 Runs F5 for 1 Unit (-115 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Padres Over 2.5 Runs F5 for 1 Unit (+110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Don't miss out on the best MLB picks and props with RotoWire's picks tool.