MLB: Four Potential Pitcher Values

Last time, we looked at three potential hitter values. In this article, we'll look at four possible pitcher values. We can find an edge with pitchers by studying the underlying metrics, skills and arsenals to project their 2022 outlook. Let's uncover the reasons for optimism and concern with these pitchers to help us decide whether we should expect these pitchers to outperform their ADP.

John Means (SP - BAL)

Before the shoulder injury, Means dominated with a 2.28 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 25.7 K%, and just under a 5% walk rate (4.9%). The .192 BABIP and 100% LOB% eventually would've regressed since that's obviously unsustainable over the long haul. Means missed almost two months then finished with a 4.88 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 20.2 K% and 4 BB%. Unsurprisingly, the BABIP (.277) and LOB% (68.8%) regressed, with the HR/9 jumping from 1.65 to 2.02. 

Throughout Means' career, home runs have remained an issue pitching in a hitter-friendly ballpark, as evidenced by the career 1.70 HR/9. Thankfully, with the ballpark changes, the Orioles' home park turns into a neutral park, according to Derek Carty.

Theoretically, that should help lower Means' home run rate and improve the ratios. As a flyball pitcher with a career FB% of 48.1%, Means' career .247 BABIP could remain lower (.240 BABIP in 2021). Fortunately, Means' fastball velocity remained nearly identical at 92.8 to 92.9 mph pre- and post-injury. 

Means' Arsenal

If we toss out the 2018 sample of 3.1 innings, Means' changeup and breaking pitch set career-bests in swinging-strike rate, with the changeup at 17.2% and breaker at 16.9%. Although FanGraphs lists the breaker as a slider, Baseball Savant shows the curve is the best pitch based on results with a .165 BA, .241 SLG, and .180 wOBA.

The horizontal movement of the curve evolved in 2020 and 2021 with above-average break of 5.6 inches versus the average. In 2019, the curve only had 3.8 inches of horizontal movement compared to over 13.1 inches in the past two seasons. Means' four-seam also has above-average vertical rise and remains his primary source of flyballs (57.1% in 2021). Interestingly, the changeup doesn't stand out movement-wise but elicited the most swings and misses for Means. 

Outlook

He seems like a potential value with an ADP outside the top 200 picks. With the park at Camden Yards, there are fewer concerns about the home park. Means displayed the ace-like upside before the shoulder injury in 2021, and it's a reasonable expectation for Means to replicate 2021 without the unsustainable LOB% and BABIP.

Drew Rasmussen (P - TB)

Not including the pitcher-friendly park factor, the Rays' pitching staff remains one of the best, with the fourth-best team wOBA (.293) and fourth-most negative Run-Value (-101.4) in 2021. The same trends apply in team ERA, WHIP and CSW%. 

Rasmussen should have a regular role in the rotation. We use the term "regular" lightly, given the Rays' history. In 2021, Rasmussen posted quality ratios with a 2.84 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, though most of it came as a reliever. The risk with Rasmussen involves the limitations in terms of innings per start.

Rasmussen's Arsenal & Results

Rasmussen relies heavily on the four-seamer (65%) and slider (30%). The four-seamer elicited an 11.2% swinging-strike rate, and the slider boasted an 11.6% swinging-strike rate. Rasmussen's pitch movement on the four-seamer and slider raise eyebrows, yet the results don't align with the pitch movement. 

One would expect the slider to elicit more swings and misses with 5.2 inches more drop than the average. Rasmussen's slider resulted in a .159 BA, .205 SLG and .183 wOBA, making it nearly unhittable. However, there's a chance the whiffs come along with that filthy slider moving forward. At times, it appeared that Rasmussen struggled with commanding the slider, which probably contributed to the whiff issue.

Outlook

Rasmussen's arsenal possesses above-average movement with quality results in 2021, though it mostly came in relief. It's reasonable to have skepticism with Rasmussen coming off a career-best season of 76 innings in 2021. With Shane Baz's injury, Rasmussen's should remain safe to begin the 2022 season. Throughout the season, Rasmussen's role might give us a headache.

Art Warren (P - CIN)

Check out Ryan Rufe's work in Closer Encounters since I lean on the reliever experts. Don't we love when it's hard to trust a closer, whether it's the shaky role or skills? Last season, the Reds had four relievers with 7-8 saves, including Heath Hembree (8), Mychal Givens (8), Lucas Sims (7), and Amir Garrett (7). With three of those on new teams and Sims unavailable for Opening Day, speculate on Warren.

It's a small sample in which Warren posted a 1.29 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 21 innings. However, Warren's stuff, particularly the slider, looks nasty. Warren's slider elicited a 25.1% swinging-strike rate and 47.2 O-Swing%, yet allowed a 56.9 Contact%. It allowed five hits total in 2021 with a .104 BA, .125 SLG and .123 wOBA. 

Warren's Stuff

Warren's slider is virtually unhittable, with three inches more drop than the average. As Warren's most used pitch (59.5% of the time in 2021), he utilizes the slider to get called strikes, but primarily for whiffs. 

Although Warren's four-seamer doesn't have above-average vertical movement, he commands it up on the zone, with the slider in the lower half.

Outlook

His stock is rising, although he's still not a lock to close for the Reds. Warren's slider is nasty, and hopefully, he builds upon the 2021 season. The downside involves the Reds spreading around the saves once again. However, Warren's skills hint at upside. 

Jorge Alcala (P - MIN)

Jason Collette put Alcala on the map with his AL Central Bold Predictions, having Alcala leading the Twins in saves. After reading Jason's article and researching Alcala on my own, the changeup usage and the movement profiles caught my eye.

Alcala's Stuff

Unlike other relievers, Alcala mixes in three pitches at a double-digit rate in the slider (40.7%), four-seamer (37.3%) and changeup (16%). Alcala's slider looks like the best pitch when you look at the results: .181 BA, .277 SLG, and .217 wOBA. However, the slider doesn't stand out movement-wise. 

In 2020, Alcala introduced the changeup and gradually increased its usage in 2021. Alcala also added a sinker more regularly from July and beyond. 

Alcala's changeup, sinker and four-seamer stand out in terms of horizontal movement. Granted, it's a small sample for relievers, but the four-seamer jumped in horizontal break, which typically translates into weak contact. Alcala's four-seamer finished with a .507 SLG and .341 wOBA. 

Outlook

Alcala uses four pitches, all of which elicited a double-digit swinging-strike rate. Alcala limits the walks with career 20.3 K-BB%, and possesses the stuff to hold down a closer role, but it's a matter of opportunity.