Spend any time listening to fantasy managers who have played in the NFBC Main Event and starting pitcher inflation will eventually come up. I've participated in a few Main Events and never experienced such a push. I decided to look into the narrative and found out the idea is true with injuries behind the movement.
For this study, I compared the average draft position (ADP) from NFBC's Draft Champions (DC) and the Main Event (ME) leagues. The Draft Champions run from the end of the regular season and peak around the start of spring training. The Main Event drafts occur over the last couple of weeks before spring training. The people drafting in the Main Events have a ton of health information while those doing Draft Champion have little to none.
To begin the analysis, I took all the starting pitchers going in the first 150 picks (first 10 rounds in a 15-team draft) from the 2019-2021 Draft Champions and saw where they were going in the Main Event. For clarity's sake, I removed Shohei Ohtani from consideration.
Here are the Draft Champion and Main Event ADP. I order the seasons from the least amount of turmoil to the greatest.
2021
Count | Name | DC ADP | ME ADP | Diff | Info |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 3.2 | ||
2 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 0.9 | ||
3 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 0.1 | ||
4 | 15.2 | 15.5 | -0.4 | ||
5 | 16.8 | 12.7 | 4.2 | ||
6 | 16.8 | 14.7 | 2.2 |
Spend any time listening to fantasy managers who have played in the NFBC Main Event and starting pitcher inflation will eventually come up. I've participated in a few Main Events and never experienced such a push. I decided to look into the narrative and found out the idea is true with injuries behind the movement.
For this study, I compared the average draft position (ADP) from NFBC's Draft Champions (DC) and the Main Event (ME) leagues. The Draft Champions run from the end of the regular season and peak around the start of spring training. The Main Event drafts occur over the last couple of weeks before spring training. The people drafting in the Main Events have a ton of health information while those doing Draft Champion have little to none.
To begin the analysis, I took all the starting pitchers going in the first 150 picks (first 10 rounds in a 15-team draft) from the 2019-2021 Draft Champions and saw where they were going in the Main Event. For clarity's sake, I removed Shohei Ohtani from consideration.
Here are the Draft Champion and Main Event ADP. I order the seasons from the least amount of turmoil to the greatest.
2021
Count | Name | DC ADP | ME ADP | Diff | Info |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 3.2 | ||
2 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 0.9 | ||
3 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 0.1 | ||
4 | 15.2 | 15.5 | -0.4 | ||
5 | 16.8 | 12.7 | 4.2 | ||
6 | 16.8 | 14.7 | 2.2 | ||
7 | 20.3 | 22.3 | -2.0 | ||
8 | 21.2 | 19.7 | 1.4 | ||
9 | 25.4 | 24.7 | 0.8 | ||
10 | 26.4 | 20.6 | 5.8 | ||
11 | 28.9 | 29.6 | -0.7 | ||
12 | 30.8 | 26.4 | 4.4 | Avg Diff 1 to 12 | |
13 | 31.0 | 34.7 | -3.7 | 1.2 | |
14 | 43.0 | 145.7 | -102.7 | ||
15 | 44.2 | 35.9 | 8.3 | ||
16 | 45.5 | 35.2 | 10.3 | ||
17 | 45.9 | 39.2 | 6.7 | ||
18 | 53.6 | 50.5 | 3.1 | ||
19 | 54.9 | 42.8 | 12.2 | ||
20 | 68.3 | 83.4 | -15.1 | ||
21 | 68.5 | 62.4 | 6.1 | ||
22 | 68.7 | 70.2 | -1.5 | Avg Diff 15 to 23 | |
23 | 69.7 | 69.7 | -0.1 | 3.3 | |
24 | 70.7 | 109.0 | -38.3 | ||
25 | 75.3 | 248.1 | -172.8 | ||
26 | 80.4 | 67.2 | 13.2 | ||
27 | 80.4 | 71.7 | 8.7 | ||
28 | 94.4 | 100.4 | -6.0 | ||
29 | 95.1 | 76.2 | 19.0 | ||
30 | 97.2 | 92.9 | 4.3 | ||
31 | 104.5 | 90.9 | 13.6 | ||
32 | 105.2 | 101.3 | 3.9 | ||
33 | 108.6 | 113.4 | -4.8 | ||
34 | 115.4 | 85.2 | 30.2 | ||
35 | 115.9 | 108.6 | 7.3 | ||
36 | 118.7 | 95.9 | 22.8 | ||
37 | 118.8 | 93.7 | 25.1 | ||
38 | 120.6 | 116.8 | 3.8 | ||
39 | 125.1 | 111.8 | 13.3 | ||
40 | 130.5 | 133.3 | -2.8 | ||
41 | 134.1 | 106.8 | 27.2 | Avg Diff 26 to 42 | |
42 | 137.1 | 133.0 | 4.1 | 10.8 |
2019
Count | Name | DC ADP | ME ADP | Diff | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 1.5 | ||
2 | 11.0 | 7.9 | 3.1 | ||
3 | 14.1 | 10.2 | 3.9 | ||
4 | 22.3 | 16.4 | 5.9 | ||
5 | 23.5 | 24.7 | -1.2 | ||
6 | 24.0 | 22.4 | 1.6 | ||
7 | 24.9 | 18.2 | 6.7 | ||
8 | 28.7 | 27.5 | 1.3 | ||
9 | 31.9 | 21.8 | 10.1 | ||
10 | 34.8 | 29.0 | 5.8 | ||
11 | 37.3 | 34.0 | 3.3 | Avg Diff 1 to 11 | |
12 | 38.5 | 28.9 | 9.6 | 3.8 | |
13 | 42.4 | 117.3 | -74.8 | ||
14 | 46.6 | 72.9 | -26.3 | ||
15 | 46.7 | 47.4 | -0.8 | ||
16 | 52.4 | 48.3 | 4.1 | ||
17 | 56.8 | 42.6 | 14.2 | ||
18 | 58.1 | 51.5 | 6.6 | ||
19 | 58.6 | 48.5 | 10.1 | ||
20 | 60.2 | 50.6 | 9.6 | ||
21 | 64.5 | 60.7 | 3.9 | ||
22 | 70.8 | 55.1 | 15.7 | Avg Diff 15 to 21 | |
23 | 77.2 | 72.7 | 4.5 | 7.5 | |
24 | 83.3 | 104.5 | -21.2 | ||
25 | 87.4 | 64.2 | 23.3 | ||
26 | 90.8 | 91.5 | -0.8 | ||
27 | 93.4 | 95.2 | -1.8 | ||
28 | 95.7 | 182.1 | -86.4 | ||
29 | 110.3 | 116.6 | -6.3 | ||
30 | 117.8 | 112.7 | 5.1 | ||
31 | 121.0 | 116.0 | 5.0 | ||
32 | 124.1 | 125.1 | -1.0 | ||
33 | 128.0 | 120.0 | 8.0 | ||
34 | 132.6 | 118.5 | 14.1 | ||
35 | 142.9 | 145.4 | -2.5 | ||
36 | 145.5 | 109.6 | 35.9 | ||
37 | 147.5 | 150.6 | -3.1 |
2020
Rank | Name | DC ADP | ME ADP | Diff | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 3.2 | ||
2 | 7.2 | 7.3 | -0.2 | ||
3 | 14.3 | 9.5 | 4.7 | ||
4 | 15.0 | 19.4 | -4.4 | ||
5 | 15.7 | 13.2 | 2.6 | ||
6 | 21.9 | 20.1 | 1.8 | ||
7 | 26.3 | 18.5 | 7.8 | ||
8 | 27.8 | 23.5 | 4.3 | ||
9 | 28.8 | 15.3 | 13.5 | 3.7 | |
10 | 34.9 | 45.3 | -10.5 | ||
11 | 39.4 | 32.3 | 7.1 | CHAOS | |
12 | 42.8 | 44.1 | -1.3 | CHAOS | |
13 | 47.1 | 30.8 | 16.3 | CHAOS | |
14 | 48.8 | 42.9 | 5.9 | CHAOS | |
15 | 49.6 | #N/A | #N/A | CHAOS | |
16 | 50.3 | 41.3 | 9.0 | CHAOS | |
17 | 51.7 | 52.7 | -0.9 | CHAOS | |
18 | 54.5 | 35.2 | 19.3 | CHAOS | |
19 | 55.3 | 37.0 | 18.3 | CHAOS | |
20 | 63.3 | 48.2 | 15.1 | CHAOS | |
21 | 66.3 | #N/A | #N/A | CHAOS | |
22 | 67.8 | #N/A | #N/A | CHAOS | |
23 | 68.8 | 54.1 | 14.7 | CHAOS | |
24 | 76.4 | 64.7 | 11.7 | CHAOS | |
25 | 78.5 | 67.0 | 11.5 | CHAOS | |
26 | 81.6 | 56.4 | 25.2 | CHAOS | |
27 | 95.3 | 84.6 | 10.8 | CHAOS | |
28 | 97.7 | 86.4 | 11.3 | CHAOS | |
29 | 100.7 | 114.4 | -13.7 | CHAOS | |
30 | 107.6 | 72.3 | 35.3 | CHAOS | |
31 | 112.6 | 130.3 | -17.7 | CHAOS | |
32 | 113.0 | 106.9 | 6.1 | CHAOS | |
33 | 114.1 | 111.8 | 2.3 | CHAOS | |
34 | 115.0 | 162.8 | -47.8 | CHAOS | |
35 | 115.1 | 72.9 | 42.2 | CHAOS | |
36 | 121.3 | 121.4 | -0.1 | CHAOS | |
37 | 122.3 | 92.8 | 29.5 | CHAOS | |
38 | 122.5 | 152.3 | -29.8 | CHAOS | |
39 | 130.8 | 145.3 | -14.5 | CHAOS | |
40 | 131.5 | 94.4 | 37.1 | CHAOS | |
41 | 132.6 | 146.8 | -14.3 | CHAOS | |
42 | 136.4 | 208.4 | -72.0 | CHAOS |
Notes:
- While the top pitchers in 2021 only moved up ~1 spot, it was between 3 and 4 spots in the other two seasons. There is some early starter inflation, probably from verifying the top arms are healthy.
- Once a starter drops in ADP because of a major injury, all the other starters move up to fill the void. This entire starting pitcher pool step-up can be seen in the 2019 and 2021 tables.
- In 2020, there were injuries to three pitchers (Severino, Sale, Syndergaard) who were going in the first 70 picks of Draft Champions, and then were not being taken in the Main Event because they needed Tommy John surgery. If there is turnover, just expect prices to be all over the place.
With news coming in fast and furious, several starters going in the first 150 picks already have injury issues. So far, Zack Wheeler (21 ADP), Chris Sale (50 ADP), Jack Flaherty (73 ADP) and Zac Gallen (132 ADP) have injuries that will cost them some time. Just out of the top 150, Lance McCullers (177 ADP) is out for the season. And as of this writing, not a single pitch has been thrown in spring training games. It'll only get worse.
With those observations, the biggest piece of information missing is the number of starters drafted in the first 150 picks of both league types.
Starting Pitchers Draft in the First 150 Picks
Season | DC SPs | ME SPs |
|---|---|---|
2019 | 37 | 37 |
2020 | 42 | 41 |
2021 | 41 | 42 |
2022 | 45 | ??? |
The number of starters taken in the first 10 rounds doesn't change from the two league formats. It's just that perceived healthy ones get bumped up as the injured ones drop.
This symmetry happens because the NFBC is a closed environment with many of the same managers having both Main Event and Draft Champion teams. I asked my favorite robot (i.e. Phil Dussault) to see how much overlap there is between Draft Champion and Main Event leagues. His findings were.
There were 645 Main Event Entries and 118 had partners so in total 763 participants, 479 of which played in at least one DC (74%). And then 1768 of the 4903 Draft Champion (entries +partners) managers had a team in the Main Event (36%).
These managers are creatures of habit and feel a need to draft the same number of starters in the Main Event as they would in the Draft Champions. My best guess is that 45 starters will go in the first 150 picks of this year's Main Event. The question between now and then is, how many will drop out and in turn add new members to the list?
