MLB: One Man's Trash... (Week 12)

Editor's Note: Stats in this article are updated through games on 6/29/2022.

During the season, I'm going to look at some of the players being dropped by fantasy managers to see if their decisions were a little brash. Some of the players dropped will provide fantasy value going forward. Someone who will remain nameless decided it was a good idea to drop Robbie Ray and Tyler O'Neill last year in the first couple of weeks.

The players I'm looking at this week are a mix of immediate adds and those who are just a tweak or two away from taking a step forward.

For the information, I'm going to focus on players dropped at the NFBC and CBS. Both Yahoo and Fantrax's add and drop numbers are based on the past day or so and can be dominated by streaming starters. CBS and NFBC are based on the past week. 

As a general rule, I will stay away from injured players and just focus on players expected to play.

Hitters

Jose Miranda (110 NFBC Drops, -4% at CBS)

In all fairness, Miranda is droppable in all redraft formats except AL-only leagues. With Alex Kirilloff coming off the IL, Miranda has only started five of 11 games. He is a utility bench bat at this point, playing at both corner infield spots and as the DH. 

So far in the majors, he's hitting .239/.275/.415 with five homers and zero stolen bases. Several factors are holding him down. First, his 45% Statcast Hard Hit% is great, but he is putting too many on the ground (47% GB%). Also, he's getting eaten up by the shift. The righty pulls the ball 46% of the time and has a .385 OPS against the shift and a .791 OPS when there is no shift. Finally, pitchers aren't throwing him four-seamers (vs .806 OPS). He's performed batter the more fastballs he sees. 

The expectations surrounding Miranda were high after he hit 30 homers last season in the minors, but he's struggling a bit and it's not just one simple fix. 

Brandon Marsh (88 NFBC Drops, -7% at CBS)

Marsh has been a tough player for me to value this season. While his fantasy stats were great through a couple of months (.276 average, four homers, two steals on May 31), he had some negative signs in his profile like a 31% K%, a .383 BABIP likely to regress and non-elite power (.117 ISO). Regression came hard in June with him hitting just .157/.205/.277.

He's become a complete mess with his June strikeout rate jumping to 41%. He's struggling against four-seamers (16% SwStr%) and pitchers are feeding him them along with offseason pitches (changes and splitters). On top of all the swing-and-miss, he barely walks with a career 7% walk rate. Also, he's been a drag against lefties (.512 OPS vs LHP, .682 OPS vs RHP), causing him to be platooned a couple of times this month. 

Projections have him as roughly a .650 OPS hitter -- that's an MLB replacement level hitter. He's hit worse than that mark this season (.636 OPS). It's fine to move on from his hot start. 

Bobby Dalbec (85 NFBC Drops, -1% at CBS)

Hopes were high that Dalbec turned around his career when he hit .269/.344/.611 in the second half of last season. None of the other gains stuck (.205/.287/.330). After digging under the hood, I've decided his results should not be this bad.

His plate discipline has improved, with his strikeout rate dropping from 34% to 28% and his walks up from 6% to 9%. His Statcast Hard Hit% has dropped from 48% to 45% and his groundball rate has gone in the wrong direction. However, those changes can't explain the extent to which his Barrel% (20% to 7%) and HR/FB% (22% to 9%) have crashed.

The one factor that might explain the power decline is his Pull% dropping from 39% to 33%. All the losses have gone to balls hit to center field. For his career, he has a .500 ISO from batted balls to left field but just a .242 OPS to center. He seems to be giving up a ton of power for better plate discipline.

He has been a league-average hitter since May 1 (.239/.328/.385), but since that time, he's only started in half the team's games, with Franchy Cordero (.708 OPS) starting in the rest. Simply put, Dalbec isn't hitting enough to garner full-time at-bats and the lack of plate appearances limits his fantasy value. 

Christian Bethancourt (67 NFBC Drops, -4% at CBS)

I don't understand this drop at all. So far this season, Bethancourt is the 16th-ranked catcher, even though he didn't slide into a full-time role until June. With the NFBC requiring two catchers, he should be on some team. 

Maybe part of the 30-year-old's low desirability is his jumping from team to team. 

Season: Team, Levels

• 2017: SDP, Triple-A & MLB
• 2018: MIL, Triple-A
• 2019: KBO
• 2020: PIT, Triple-A
• 2021: OAK, Triple-A & MLB

Fantasy managers just don't know what to expect from him.

Last season in Triple-A, he hit a respectable .281/.339/.468 with 14 homers and four steals. After just 21 plate appearances in Triple-A, he's hit .263/.333/.684 with four homers and four steals in the majors. For a stretch, he was starting every day, and he's still started in six of the last 10 games and has started against all lefties (.696 OPS vs LHP, .649 OPS vs RHP). 

I looked to see if he had any recent struggles, but his OPS has increased each month so far (.481 to .637 to .807).  He's not hitting a ton of homers, but his four steals help, and his batting average is not a drag. These drops should turn into immediate adds in all two-catcher formats. 

Starters

Alex Faedo (110 NFBC Drops, -9% at CBS)

Faedo is losing some fantasy manager goodwill because of some recent blowups. From his debut through his June 8 start, he had a 2.92 ERA (3.91 xFIP), 6.8 K/9 and 1.24 WHIP. In the three starts since then, it has been an 11.12 ERA, 8.7 K/9 and 1.83 WHIP. (Editor's Note: The Tigers optioned Faedo on Friday, but he is expected back for Monday's doubleheader.)

During the three disasters, he looks like he tried to go for more strikeouts but made himself more predictable. In the three starts, he dropped his changeup (8% SwStr%) usage from 17% to 7% and threw his slider more (31% to 40%, 17% SwStr%). He got more strikeouts, but with just two pitches, he became predictable, with hitters lighting him up the second time through the order (3.23 xFIP 1st TTO, 6.12 xFIP 2nd TTO, 5.37 xFIP 3rd TTO). 

Another issue is that if he's behind in the count, he has to come back with a fastball that hitters are waiting on (vs 1.012 OPS on fastballs). 

There are several possible solutions, but it's nearly impossible to know if or when he'll implement one. He could go back to throwing the changeup more. He could also improve the changeup. He could throw his slider for strikes when behind. The Tigers could take him out of the rotation and let him face a lineup once. There are several options, but there is no need to roster him while he figures it out. 

Anthony DeSclafani (96 NFBC Drops, -11% at CBS)

It has been ugly for DeSclafani since coming off the IL. In two starts, he's allowed 12 earned runs in not even six innings. The expectations were high for him after he posted a 3.17 ERA and 1.09 WHIP last season. Almost all of this season's struggles can be linked to his fastball. 

First of all, his average fastball velocity is down about two mph (94.1 to 92.4).

The swing-and-miss on his four-seamer (0% SwStr%) and sinker (2% SwStr%) are at or nearly zero. Some batted-ball struggles should have been expected since he was seeing some velocity decline last season. In the first half, he had a .238 BABIP, and a .307 mark in the second half. 

Also, he's hanging a ton of sliders over the heart of the plate. 

2021

2022

When hitters put his slider in play last season, they had a .644 OPS. This year, it's a 1.002 OPS. 

The one positive is that in a limited sample, his curveball (19% SwStr%, 100% GB%) has been amazing. Maybe he should throw it more. 

For me to consider rostering/starting DeSclafani going forward, I need one of two changes to occur. First, he could regain the velocity he lost. The other would be to go with a different pitch mix where he'd feature the curveball more. 

Michael Lorenzen (65 NFBC Drops, -7% at CBS)

I had low expectations for Lorezen coming into the season. His career 4.71 ERA (with matching ERA estimators) as a starter was the main reason. He was in the bullpen for a reason and I had no faith the Angels would change him. It looked like I might be eating crow when he had a 3.19 ERA (4.34 xFIP) at the end of May. 

It has been ugly for him in June with a 6.75 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. During that time, his core talent hasn't changed, with his monthly K-BB% going from 10% to 8% to 8%.

One reason he might be getting hit harder is that his velocity is tanking, from averaging 96 mph in his first start to 94.2 mph in his last one. 

It's tough to confidently start him at his current rate of decline, especially with a consistent 10% walk rate. It's time to stay away. 

James Kaprielian (41 NFBC Drops, -1% at CBS)

I was a little surprised he was even rostered given his 5.88 ERA, 6.2 K/9 and 1.42 WHIP. Some brave managers didn't care and rolled him out for a two-start week at Seattle and versus Kansas City. The overall results (4.22 ERA, 9 K, 1.22 WHIP and no wins in 10 IP) could have been worse. 

I saw Kaprielian as a streaming option coming into the season after he posted a 4.07 ERA, 9.3 K/9 and 1.22 WHIP last season. This season, he can't seem to find the strike zone, with his strikeouts down (9.3 K/9 to 6.2) and his walks up (3.1 BB/9 to 4.2 BB/9). 

An immediate cause for the struggles doesn't stick out. His fastball velocity is up while the pitch has been less effective (11% SwStr% to 7%). He has the same 50% Zone% in each season. Hitters are just making more contact (76% to 80%) while not chasing as many pitches out of the strike zone (26% to 24%). Maybe he is tipping his pitches. 

On top of the struggles to throw strikes, he is giving up a ton of home runs (1.9 HR/9). It's not a profile to get excited about and the drops are justified.