Top MLB Betting Picks: October 2nd Best Bets & Predictions
What a day for baseball, we get three elimination games today! Let's take a look.
Season record 31-38-1, -9.34 units
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Tigers at Guardians
Through the first 16 1/2 IP of this series we saw precious little offense as the teams had combined for a total of 5 runs to that point. Then the floodgates opened in the bottom of the 8th yesterday as the Guardians exploded for 5 runs on the way to a 6-1 win
One thing is highly likely; we're not likely to see either starter for terribly long. Its an elimination game, and neither pitcher is named Tarik Skubal. The Tigers pulled Casey Mize after 3 IP and 62 pitches yesterday and he had only given up 1 hit and 2 walks by then. And he was clearly their preferred option to today's starter, Jack Flaherty as they hoped to clinch in Game 2. Flaherty has had a wildly inconsistent season in Detroit, mixing occasional gems with. outright clunkers and finishing with a dissappointing 4.64 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. He last pitched right here in Cleveland on 9/24 and gave up 3 earned runs on 5 hits in 4.1 IP. I doubt he gets any rope whatsoever today as Detroits bullpen should be mostly available. Tyler Holton threw 31 pitches yesterday and Troy Melton got shelled, but after that everyone should be good to go. That includes their closer and best reliever Will Vest, who did not pitch yesterday, and Kyle Finnegan who did throw 18 pitches but did not appear on Tuesday. I'm going to play this with Flaherty's Outs Recorded under
MLB Best Bet
- Jack Flaherty Under 11.5 Outs Recorded (+116 DraftKings)
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Padres at Cubs
Yu Darvish returns to Wrigley for a Revenge Game vs the Cubs and Jameson Taillon. We have seen precious few runs here as well, just 7 in the two games combined. Taillon has quietly had a nice 3.68 ERA, 1.08 season for the Cubs, though with just an 18.9% K% and 4.40 SIERA. He's looked particularly good since returning from IL in September with a 1.54 ERA over 23.1 IP in 4 starts. Darvish has pitched better than his 5.38 ERA would suggest as he has a 1.14 WHIP and 3.65 xERA. But he will likely not pitch too long in this one and that could pose a problem. Yes the Padres have an excellent bullpen. Mason Miller has faced 8 batters in this series, and he struck all of them out. But they used him in both games and he threw 27 pitches yesterday. Is he available today? Its unclear. Adrian Morejon is also terrific and also iffy to go as he went 2.1 IP and 33 pitches.
Meanwhile the Cubs should have all of Daniel Palencia, Drew Pomeranz and Brad Keller available as none of them got in yesterday. Both offenses are good, but neither has hit so far this series. The Cubs more rested pen steers me in that direction.
MLB Best Bet
- Cubs -115 (-115 bet365)
Red Sox at Yankees
Incredibly we get a battle of Rookies here with Connerly Early of the Red Sox going against Cam Schlittler of the Yankees. Both have been terrific but again, how long will they stay in? Yes, expect the Sox to give their starter the Early hook (c'mon, that dad joke was just sitting there). I think the biggest issus is that he's a lefty and will Aaron Boone go platoon crazy and sit Jazz Chisholm and Ben Rice again? I would guess not since they know Early likely only sees a few innings and that would empty the bench too early. The Yankees just have such a deeper lineup. Their bullpen is the risk and the ML is kind of high, but I just don't see them losing in this spot.
MLB Best Bet
- Yankees -160 (-160 Bet MGM)
MLB Best Bets Recap
- Jack Flaherty Under 11.5 Outs Recorded (+116 DraftKings)
- Cubs -115 (-115 bet365)
- Yankees -160 (-160 Bet MGM)
