This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Top MLB Betting Picks: June 25th Best Bets & Predictions
Season record 20-22-1, -3.26 units
Its kind of a strange half-week in MLB. We're simultaneously seeing boatloads of runs with a side of shutouts, 16 in all in the last 3 days. I'll go with the odd flow here and run with 1 play from each column.
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Rays at Orioles, F5 Over 5.5 Runs +110 (DraftKings)
Speaking of lots of runs, we had 30 of them last night in Baltimore. The Orioles fell behind 6-0 early then exploded for 3 TD's and a tack on 2-pointer to boot and won going away, 22-8. We get a battle of the Zach(k's) today as Zach Eflin lines up for the Orioles in a Revenge Game spot, while Zack Littell takes the ball for the Rays.
Eflin faces quite the challenge here as the Rays have the hottest offense in MLB right now. Over the last 30 days they lead the league with 165 runs (6.11/game) and a 135 wRC+. Yandy Diaz is absolutely crushing it over this stretch, with a .398/.457/.621 triple slash, as is Junior Caminero with 10 homers, 24 runs and 25 RBI. Eflin for his part has struggled mightily. Since returning from the IL on May 11th, he has a 6.49 ERA and 1.60 WHIP with just a 17.6% K%. And its trending the wrong way as he's given up 13 runs in just 8 IP over his last 2 starts, including 22 hits, 4 BB's and 5 homers. One of those ugly starts was against these very Rays.
Littell looks much better as he has a 3.78 ERA and 1.10 WHIP on the season, though his 4.13 SIERA and 4.58 xERA suggest he's not quite that good. His super low 16.9% K% might have something to do with that, and he's an even worse 12.3% K% on the road. The Orioles have hit a bit better lately as they have a 111 wRC+ over the last month. They're without Jordan Westburg yet again today however. But when you have Gary Sanchez and his 4 homers in 10 games, anything else is just a luxury! Gunnar Henderson has a .333 Avg. over the last 30 days which is super encouraging, but his homer last night was just his 2nd over that stretch.
To add more fuel to the offense today, the new Park Factors tool over at VSiN.com shows this as a 16% boost in the run scoring environment at Camden Yards. It's played virtually neutral most of the season as per Statcast.
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Dodgers at Royals F5 Under 4.5 Runs -105 (DraftKings)
The Royals offense just can't get it going. They have an 81 wRC+ on the season, 4th worst in MLB. And it's just not getting any better, as their 79 runs over the last 30 days is the league's 2nd worst. Bobby Witt Jr. remains a superstar, but his .277 average, 11 homers and 118 wRC+ are a bit underwhelming for him thus far. Maikel Garcia at .311/.368/.483 136 wRC+ is the only other regular with a wRC+ over 104. There's every reason in the world to think Jac Caglianone will mash at some point soon, but for now the prize rookie has just 2 homers in 83 PA's and a .179 average.
They'll face some Shohei Ohtani guy as an opener. He's only gone 2 IP total in his two appearances so far, but presumably he'll go at least another inning today. Ben Casparius will almost certainly follow and get the "bulk of the outing. He's excellent overall in his mixed role, with a 3.25 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, though a less stellar 4.26 ERA, 1.18 WHIP in his last 3 more extended outings.
Seth Lugo gets the ball for the Royals today, and he's just shoved recently. In 4 starts following a shaky 1st game back from the IL on May 30th, he has a 1.57 ERA and 0.78 WHIP with a 26.4% K%. He of course has to get through the Dodgers colossus, but at least he gets them on his home turf. L.A. has "just" a semi-human 104 wRC+ on the road this year. KC is a pretty neutral run-scoring park in 2025, checking in at 102 on Statcast.
Plus we have some betting trends in our favor. Royals F5 Unders are a league best 30-12 35.3% ROI at home. They're also 45-22 27.2% ROI to the under in F5's vs. righty starters
MLB Best Bets
- Rays at Orioles, F5 Over 5.5 Runs +110
- Dodgers at Royals F5 Under 4.5 Runs -105
