This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets Today: MLB Picks for Friday April 18th
Previous article 0-3 (-4.00 units)
Season 17-26 (-11.95 units)
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I jinxed myself knowing that an 0-3 would follow up the positive day before. I swear betting against Randy Vasquez is going to cost me a ton of money this year with his 8:14 K:BB, but 1.74 ERA and 1.35 WHIP.
Friday's MLB Slate Observations
Road Favorites - Giants -150 at Angels, Dodgers -143 at Rangers, Royals -140 at Tigers
Home Favorites (Largest) - Phillies -210 vs. Marlins, Red Sox -200 vs White Sox, Mets -165 vs. Cardinals
Totals - Dbacks/Cubs 11.0, White Sox/Red Sox 9.5, Mariners/Blue Jays 7.5, Phillies/Marlins 7.5, Royals/Tigers 7.5
Weather
Dbacks/Cubs opened 9.5 and is all the way up to 11 runs in most spots. The combination of warm weather (60 degrees) and heavy winds blowing out (15-20 mph) is the reason.
Nationals/Rockies will be in the 30s (hence the low total for Coors)
Orioles and Phillies have winds blowing out 10-15 mph; Yankees/Rays have wind blowing in at 15 mph.
MLB Line Movement
- Red Sox from -178 to -205 (line moved after Hunter Dobbins was named the starter)
- Astros from -132 to -145
- Phillies from -230 to -214
Bullpen Rankings -
Top 5 (Guardians, Padres, Dodgers, Mets, Dbacks). These are teams you can feel confident betting in full-game situations. You want to avoid betting against them in full-game situations and only focus on F5s.
Bottom 5 (Pirates, Marlins, Angels, Nationals, Rockies). These are teams you can feel confident betting against in full game situations. You would only want to bet on them in F5s.
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Best MLB Bets Today
Chicago White Sox 
at Boston Red Sox 
Picks
This game is a case of digging into the data and being able to find what I think is tremendous value on a team total in a game with an inflated run total of 9.5.
Martin Perez is set for up huge regression but the Red Sox have not been able to hit any left-handed pitcher in three years. Perez just got them in Chicago so I do think the Red Sox will be able to get to him at home.
Hunter Dobbins is a solid pitcher and should be able to limit the White Sox along with a fully rested bullpen for Boston with an off day Thursday.
The White Sox are 5-1 to the UNDER on their team total on the road. They have scored just 12 runs in those six games with a batting average of .184, 0 home runs, and a slugging percentage of .227.
This game is all about the awful White Sox offense on the road along with a serviceable starting pticher and fully rested bullpen for the Red Sox.
MLB Best Bet: White Sox UNDER 3.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -105)
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Arizona Diamondbacks 
at Chicago Cubs 
Picks
This is a game featuring the #2 and #4 ranked offenses in baseball according to WAR, so I was already looking at an OVER regardless of the weather. Corbin Burnes is one of the best pitchers in baseball, but even this Cubs offense should be able to get some runs against him. The Dbacks should be able to knock Collin Rea around as well.
There is a reason that totals do not get posted early for Wrigley Field games and we have a double whammy today with strong winds blowing out and warm weather.
This total has jumped a full 1.5 runs and could even go to 11.5 or 12 at this rate.
Do the best you can and grab the number quickly.
MLB Best Bet: Dbacks/Cubs OVER 11 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel -115)
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Miami Marlins 
at Philadelphia Phillies 
Picks
Zack Wheeler has been the best pitcher in baseball over the last five years with a 29.7 WAR, but you want to take him at home, where his numbers are even stronger. The Phillies are 12-2 in his last 14 starts at home. While I do like Sandy Alcantara, all three of his starts have been at home and he has a 12:8 K:BB rate which does not bode well for the future.
I usually stay away from the run line in games with a total of 7.5 or less, but we have a heavy home favorite in the Phillies at -205 which helps along with a terrible Marlins bullpen.
MLB Best Bet: Phillies -1.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings +105)
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MLB Picks Recap
- White Sox UNDER 3.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -105)
- Dbacks/Cubs OVER 11 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel -115)
- Phillies -1.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings +105)
