This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Expert Picks: Free Bets and Player Props for Sunday, May 14
The Tampa Bay Rays became the fastest franchise to 30 wins in the past 20 seasons, needing only 39 games. Last season, the New York Yankees got out to an epic start and needed 42 games to get 30 wins, but they faded significantly in the second half of the season. The Rays show no signs of regression despite losing their last two games to the New York Yankees. Every team in the American League East has a winning record, yet the Yankees are in fourth place at 23-18, trailing the Rays by seven games.
Can the Yankees Win the Series against the Rays?
This is the last game of the four-game series between the Rays and the Yankees and with a win, the Yankees would be the fifth team to win a series over the Rays this season. With a loss, the Rays would be losers of two consecutive series for the first time this season. It's only May, but suddenly these types of situations take on greater meaning and will intensify over the course of the season.
Right-hander Zach Eflin will be on the hill for the Rays and is in great pitching form. He is 4-1 in six starts with a terrific 2.91 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP, striking out 25 with only four walks in 34 innings of work. He has made three daytime starts and won them all with a 1.06 ERA, 0.59 WHIP and 19:1 K:BB across 17 frames.
The Yankees will have Clarke Schmidt on the hill and have struggled to a 1-3 record in eight starts with a 5.35 ERA and a 1.613 WHIP including 43 strikeouts and 11 walks. He throws a fastball with excellent sinking action, a cutter and a curveball. His fastball averages 94 mph, cutter 92 mph, and curveball 84 mph. He sparingly will throw a change to left-handed batters, but the pitch has been ineffective at 90 mph because the speed differential between the fastball and the change is only four mph. The preferred speed differential for a changeup is 10 or more mph.
The Rays lineup doesn't go to the plate guessing and Clarke is going to have his hands full trying to contain them. The Rays are great hitters and will look to drive the balls into the gaps and will take his cutter and curveball to the oppositive field (right and right center). Since the defensive shift has been eliminated from the game, many teams are going back to a traditional hitting strategy including 'going with the pitch' and it is paying off with higher player on-base-percentages and more runs scored. This season, Clarke allowed a 92 mph exit velocity and 50% of the batted balls in play have been classified as hard hit. The Rays have a significant advantage to exploit facing Clarke, who will not complete five innings this afternoon.
A 75% Situational Betting Angle
Betting on AL road teams in the last game of a series who are a) priced between a –125 favorite and a +125 underdog and b) starting a pitcher with a 3.50 or lower ERA and c) taking on a team that is batting .260 or worse has earned a highly profitable 33-11 record, good for 75% winning bets spanning the past five seasons of action.
MLB Best Bets for Rays at Yankees
- Rays moneyline (FanDuel -120)
The Best Bet for Monday
The Philadelphia Phillies are riding a five-game win streak entering Sunday's finale against the Colorado Rockies. With the Phillies' Aaron Nola on the hill, there is a good chance this will be a six-game win streak heading into San Francisco for the first of three games against the Giants.
The Giants are a mess at the moment, scoring 4.4 runs per game on the season but only 3.9 RPG over their last seven games. More alarming is their bullpen which sports a horrid 6.06 ERA on the season, including a 5.48 ERA in 20 home games, and a 7.04 ERA in 19 night games. The Phillies lineup is formidable and is coming into form averaging 5.2 RPG over their last seven games.
Situational Angles Supporting a Betting Opportunity on the Phillies
The Giants are just 5-15, losing 14 units per unit wagered, when facing an average bullpen posting a 4.20 or lower ERA this season. The Giants will start left-hander Alex Wood, who's 37-42 while losing 25 units per unit wagered when facing teams that average three or fewer walks per game for his career.
I recommended getting on this game Sunday with the Phillies currently priced as +105 underdogs because the market is likely to move to price the Phillies as the favorite by game time.
