We have four day games on the schedule Thursday. Still, there are seven more games scheduled for the evening. Let's focus on those later games and highlight some of the top options to consider on PrizePicks.
Aaron Nola, PHI at BOS: More Than 6.0 Pitcher Strikeouts
Nola has seen his strikeout rate decline to 23.1 percent this season. That is well off his career mark of 27.0 percent. Still, he has pitched well with a 2.77 ERA and a 3.83 FIP. After giving up 1.5 HR/9 last year, he has allowed 1.2 HR/9 this season.
While Nola hasn't racked up a ton of strikeouts this year, he does have a track record of success in that department. This is a great matchup for him to improve his numbers against the Red Sox, who have struck out the third-most times in baseball. Given that Nola has logged at least six innings in five straight starts, expect him to last long enough in this outing to give him an opportunity to go over this number.
Pete Alonso, NYM vs. MIA: More Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
Starting this game for the Marlins will be Roddery Munoz. He has logged 19.2 innings in the majors this season, allowing a total of eight home runs already. Over 41 innings at Triple-A, he was taken deep seven times.
With Alonso's power, this is a stellar matchup for him. Even in a down season by his standards, Alonso has 14 home runs and a .227 ISO. Since the start of last season, he has hit a total of 43 home runs off right-handed pitchers. With the potential for him to go deep in this matchup, going with more-than here is too good to resist.
Randy Arozarena, TB vs. CHC: Less Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
Arozarena (hamstring) has not started either of the last two games, but he made an appearance as a pinch hitter in both. With that in mind, he could make his return to the lineup Thursday. The problem is that he is off to an awful start to the season, batting .174 with a .274 wOBA. After posting a 48.0 percent hard-hit rate last year, he has just a 39.1 percent hard-hit rate this season.
Starting for the Cubs will be Justin Steele, who has followed up his 1.17 WHIP last season with a 1.15 WHIP this year. Over his last three starts, he has given up just 15 hits across 19 innings. With how badly Arozarena is slumping right now, this is not a great matchup for him to try and get back on track.
Abraham Toro, OAK at MIN: Less Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
Toro has cooled off lately. Over his last 12 games, he is 8-for-52 (.154) with a .185 OBP. His batting average was .290 before that stretch, but given that he is a career .223 hitter, that was unlikely to last. For the season, he now has just a .296 wOBA versus right-handed pitchers.
Toro will have his work cut out for him against Joe Ryan, who has a 0.97 WHIP over 13 starts. Ryan's 3.30 ERA is backed by a 3.50 FIP, and he continues to show excellent control with his 4.2 percent walk rate. In a game in which runs could be difficult to come by for the Athletics, less than is the appealing choice with Toro.
