This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets & Player Props
for Thursday, August 22
There are 10 games on the schedule Thursday, five of which have early start times. Let's focus on the later games and highlight three wagers that could prove to be profitable.
Mike Barner's season record: 46-27 (+9.75 units)
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds Best Bets
After winning a slugfest in Toronto on Wednesday, the Reds will travel to Pittsburgh to play the Pirates. They used five relievers in that matchup. Three of their relievers have pitched in three of the last five days, so they could be dealing with a compromised bullpen. They would likely love to get some length out of starter Nick Lodolo, who has already logged at least 5.1 innings in five of his last six starts.
Lodolo has been giving the Reds length lately, but he still has a 4.55 ERA and a 4.00 FIP for the season. He has allowed at least two earned runs in each of his last nine starts. The Pirates only have a .657 OPS against right-handed pitchers, but they have a .709 OPS versus lefties. This is a favorable spot for Lodolo to give up at least two earned runs again.
MLB Picks for Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds
- Nick Lodolo over 1.5 earned runs allowed (-150 at DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 unit
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Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros Best Bets
This should be a fun matchup between two of the best teams in the American League. The Orioles are 37-28 at home, while the Astros are 33-29 on the road. The Orioles will have the starting pitching edge with Corbin Burnes facing off against Spencer Arrighetti. Arrighetti has had some impressive starts, but he has mostly struggled, posting a 5.20 ERA and a 4.31 FIP. Burnes has a 3.10 ERA and a 3.59 FIP. I don't trust the Orioles' bullpen, so I'll pay the added juice and take the Orioles on the moneyline through five innings, rather than for the entire game.
Since we're paying so much juice on the Orioles to win the first five innings, let's go with another wager at plus-odds. Part of Arrighetti's problem has been an inability to keep hitters inside the ballpark. He has allowed two home runs in three of his last four starts. DraftKings Sportsbook has a wager in which you can bet one of two players to hit a home run. Let's take the option that would cash if either Gunnar Henderson or Anthony Santander goes yard.
Henderson has slugged four home runs over his last eight games. Of his 33 home runs this season, 25 of them have come off right-handed pitchers. His 12.4 percent barrel rate and 54.3 percent hard-hit rate are both on pace to be the highest marks of his career. Santander has been just as dangerous at the plate, slugging 37 home runs. Over the last two seasons, 49 of his 65 home runs have come off righties.
MLB Picks for Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros
- Orioles ML First 5 Innings (-180 at DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 unit
- Gunnar Henderson and Anthony Santander: Either player to hit a home run (+230 at DraftKings Sportsbook) for 0.5 units
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Nick Lodolo over 1.5 earned runs allowed (-150 at DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 unit
- Orioles ML First 5 Innings (-180 at DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 unit
- Gunnar Henderson and Anthony Santander: Either player to hit a home run (+230 at DraftKings Sportsbook) for 0.5 units
