Last week, we took a look at some underperforming hitters while trying to project whether it was time to panic or be patient. We'll shift to surveying the pitcher landscape in a similar exercise this week. In the first section of the article, I'll look at a trio of pitchers that fantasy managers have split feelings on. Using the Yahoo roster trends, I've identified players who have been both widely added and dropped in public leagues and determine which side of the transaction I would want to be on. In the next section, I'll look at a few players I'd want to be rostering right now who remain available on waivers or started at a low rate. Finally, we'll look at a pair of the most widely dropped pitchers (excluding injuries or streamers) to see if they are worth picking up should they become available in leagues.
Interesting Roster Trends
After being dealt to the Rays for the second half of 2023, Civale posted a 58:11 K:BB in 45.1 innings. That was enough for him to enter the 2024 season with some buzz despite underwhelming surface stats. Through seven starts in the current campaign, the story has remained mostly the same (18.2 K-BB%, 6.14 ERA). The inflated ERA has caused some fantasy managers to give up on him, while others are relying on his skills to stay bought in. The primary problem has been the long ball, as Civale has given up 1.7 HR/9. His career rate (1.3
Last week, we took a look at some underperforming hitters while trying to project whether it was time to panic or be patient. We'll shift to surveying the pitcher landscape in a similar exercise this week. In the first section of the article, I'll look at a trio of pitchers that fantasy managers have split feelings on. Using the Yahoo roster trends, I've identified players who have been both widely added and dropped in public leagues and determine which side of the transaction I would want to be on. In the next section, I'll look at a few players I'd want to be rostering right now who remain available on waivers or started at a low rate. Finally, we'll look at a pair of the most widely dropped pitchers (excluding injuries or streamers) to see if they are worth picking up should they become available in leagues.
Interesting Roster Trends
After being dealt to the Rays for the second half of 2023, Civale posted a 58:11 K:BB in 45.1 innings. That was enough for him to enter the 2024 season with some buzz despite underwhelming surface stats. Through seven starts in the current campaign, the story has remained mostly the same (18.2 K-BB%, 6.14 ERA). The inflated ERA has caused some fantasy managers to give up on him, while others are relying on his skills to stay bought in. The primary problem has been the long ball, as Civale has given up 1.7 HR/9. His career rate (1.3 HR/9) isn't good, but his track record alone suggests he should have better luck going forward. Statcast gives us a more evidence-based reason to believe in him, as he has 4.7 xHR as opposed to the seven actual homers he's served up. One reason for concern is that Civale has seen his groundball rate dip (41.4 percent career, 32.7 percent 2024), but overall I'd be inclined to hold or add him.
It's unclear why Flaherty appears on this list, but he's been involved in nearly 2,000 transactions and the majority have been drops. He's had two shaky starts overall, but in his last two outings, he has a 20:2 K:BB in 12.2 innings. Flaherty also boasts the second-best SIERA in the league among pitchers with at least 20 frames thrown (Jared Jones has the best mark). Flaherty has burned fantasy managers in the past but there's not much reason to drop him at this point.
There are two glaring problems with McKenzie's profile, and they may be related. It was reported a few weeks ago that he was pitching with a tear in his UCL. The effects have been transparent, as his 91.7 mph average velocity on his fastball is the lowest mark of his career. The other issue is his control, as McKenzie has a 14.1 percent walk rate. While far from perfect, his walk rate has improved in recent starts. For instance, he's issued nine free passes in his last 21 innings and four starts. In his first three appearances of the season – spanning 13 innings – he issued 12 walks. The rest of his profile is mostly within his career norms, which should provide some hope his walk rate will also fall in line. If McKenzie suffers an arm injury or otherwise lands on the IL, he'll be an easy drop, but given the current state of pitching, he's likely at least an option to stream off the bench in most points formats.
Add/Start
Pfaadt has a 5.39 ERA across 137 career innings in the majors, so he's given plenty of reason to be skeptical of rostering or starting him. He's shown positive signs of putting things together this season though, highlighted by a lights-out 20.7 K-BB%, rivaling the marks he was able to put up as he rose through the Diamondbacks' minor-league system. There are other more subtle things to like about his profile, as he's induced a 15.9 percent infield-flyball rate and has cut his barrel rate in half (5.6 percent) as compared to 2023. It's nearly always an oversimplification to cite one stat and say it explains a player's results, but Pfaadt's 61.4 percent left-on base rate looks to be a primary cause of his 4.61 ERA. That should improve as the season progresses, particularly if his skills stay intact. He's also a particularly good option in points leagues thanks to his ability to pitch deep into games (he's pitched at least six innings in four of his last five starts).
Woods Richardson is in line to get an opportunity to stick in the big-league rotation and fantasy managers are starting to catch on, as his roster rate has increased to 10 percent on Yahoo and 26 percent on CBS. There's also more to like in his profile other than just opportunity. Woods Richardson has added nearly two ticks to his fastball and has shown more confidence turning to his offspeed and breaking stuff. He's had a strong run since being added to the big-league roster (14.9 fantasy points per start) and while he's bound to hit some bumps in the road, he's given enough reason to believe in his potential for long-term success. As for points leagues specifically, he's both SP and RP eligible on Yahoo – where he's still widely available -- to give him some extra value.
Bradley rounds out our trio of young pitchers to believe in, despite the fact he has yet to throw a pitch in the majors in 2024. He's returning from a pectoral injury and should be activated to start for the Rays this week. Bradley has been lights out during his rehab assignment (one earned run across 11 IP, 15:3 K:BB) and Tampa Bay doesn't have its typical depth in the rotation, meaning they'll almost certainly have to rely on him for the foreseeable future. As was the case for Woods Richardson, Bradley is starting to be added in leagues on Yahoo, CBS and ESPN, but there's still time to grab him in a lot of formats.
Time to Panic?
Detmers has fallen off from a results perspective after a hot start to the season, and he's contributed negative points in each of his last two outings in standard scoring points formats. He's been dumped in nearly 2,000 Yahoo leagues in response, and it's hard to argue with that decision considering he's surrendered 16 earned runs across his last 17.2 innings. Particularly concerning is his lack of control (seven walks) and inability to keep the ball in the yard (five home runs) in that span. Detmers has shown dominance in stretches as a big-league pitcher, but there's also been a dip in his quality of production shortly thereafter. Contextual factors such as his lack of upside for wins (none in his last four starts) and even quality starts (two this season) also aren't particularly compelling reasons to hold in points formats. Cutting him is a defensible decision, but keep a close eye on his performance and be willing to add him back at the first sign of a return to form.
Of all the pitchers covered in this article, I'd have the fewest qualms about parting ways with Fedde. He pitches for one of the worst teams in the league and also has only an 8.5 percent swinging strike rate. Admittedly, Fedde has posted 20.5, 22.5 and 30.5 fantasy points (scoring-format dependent) in three of his last four starts. In the opposite scenario from Detmers, I'd be willing to hold Fedde until his hot stretch fades, but overall I would not hesitate to cut him.
