It's been a tumultuous few months on the starting pitcher landscape, with seemingly every pitcher selected in the early rounds spending time on the injured list at some point. Even players that have returned from injury such as Gerrit Cole and Max Scherzer have stumbled more than would be expected, though it would be no surprise to see them turn things around in the second half.
Luckily, a lot of pitchers have emerged from mediocrity, and in some cases from complete anonymity, to deliver for fantasy managers. We'll highlight some of those first-half heroes and seek to determine whether their performance can carry forward through the final months of the season.
Starting Pitchers
Seth Lugo 
– post-300 ADP
Why he's overperformed: There appear be two primary reasons for Lugo's excellent first half. The first is his ability to work deep into games. He's completed at least six innings in 16 of his 18 starts this season, posted a quality start 14 times and won 11 times. That's a gold mine in all fantasy formats, but particularly points leagues. The second is his ability to limit home runs, which could disappear in the heat of the summer months.
Will it continue?: Lugo is a perfect fit for points formats, which makes it difficult to count him out. He's also ramped up his strikeout rate in the last two months, giving him some additional and unanticipated upside. Many are expecting him to fall apart in the second half, but he's
It's been a tumultuous few months on the starting pitcher landscape, with seemingly every pitcher selected in the early rounds spending time on the injured list at some point. Even players that have returned from injury such as Gerrit Cole and Max Scherzer have stumbled more than would be expected, though it would be no surprise to see them turn things around in the second half.
Luckily, a lot of pitchers have emerged from mediocrity, and in some cases from complete anonymity, to deliver for fantasy managers. We'll highlight some of those first-half heroes and seek to determine whether their performance can carry forward through the final months of the season.
Starting Pitchers
Seth Lugo – post-300 ADP
Why he's overperformed: There appear be two primary reasons for Lugo's excellent first half. The first is his ability to work deep into games. He's completed at least six innings in 16 of his 18 starts this season, posted a quality start 14 times and won 11 times. That's a gold mine in all fantasy formats, but particularly points leagues. The second is his ability to limit home runs, which could disappear in the heat of the summer months.
Will it continue?: Lugo is a perfect fit for points formats, which makes it difficult to count him out. He's also ramped up his strikeout rate in the last two months, giving him some additional and unanticipated upside. Many are expecting him to fall apart in the second half, but he's maintained a 2.95 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP in 44 starts since shifting from relief to a rotation role. He may not remain the top pitcher in total points scored, but Lugo isn't an obvious sell-high candidate unless you can really cash in.
Ranger Suarez 
– ADP between 290 and 320
Why he's overperformed: Suarez isn't beating himself. He has greatly limited home runs thanks to an elevated groundball rate. He also has a career-low 5.2 percent walk rate. The latter is backed by an increased rate of first-pitch strikes, but not his overall zone rate.
Will it continue?: We've almost certainly seen the best of Suarez, but he has made legitimate improvement to his skills. I'm buying that he'll be productive in the second half, but if his walk rate starts to tick up it may be a warning sign to sell high.
Garrett Crochet 
– widely undrafted
Why he's overperformed: Crochet was regarded as an injury prone reliever entering the 2024 season, but he was excellent in spring training and made a surprise push into the rotation. Fast forward a couple months and he leads the league in strikeout rate among qualified pitchers and has also maintained a strong walk and homer rate. In other words, he's controlled everything that he can.
Will it continue?: Controlling everything he can control leads us nicely into his section, because whether he'll maintain similar value moving forward appears to be largely out of his control. The White Sox have noted that they're planning to limit Crochet's innings, but he's also been subject of a lot of trade speculation. If he's dealt, it's unlikely the team acquiring him does so to baby his arm. This isn't exactly a unique way to analyze Crochet's fantasy value, so the best route forward is likely to hold and hope a contender blows the White Sox away with a trade offer.
Tanner Houck 
– late 300s ADP
Why he's overperformed: Houck finally landed on a pitch mix that works for him. He's ditched his fastball and cutter altogether, instead relying on a combination of his sinker, slider and splitter. That's helped him keep the ball out of the air and limited home runs in an extreme way.
Will it continue?: The change in pitch mix makes Houck's excellent start to the season believable. He's lived in the zone far more without giving up significant damage. He doesn't generate a lot of strikeouts, limiting his upside, but he's been consistently reliable this season and I'd expect that to continue.
Ronel Blanco 
- undrafted
Why he's overperformed: None of the traditional measures suggest Blanco should have as much success as he has (17.2 fantasy points per game). His walk rate has improved but is still 10.2 percent, and his strikeout rate is a mediocre 23.1 percent. He's also allowed 1.2 HR/9 and an 8.3 percent barrel rate. There's not much positive to point to from a skills perspective, though he has benefitted from eight wins and nine quality starts in 16 starts.
Will it continue?: The section above was something of a spoiler alert, but it's difficult to see how Blanco has experienced his success to this point. I'd bet against him repeating his first-half performance.
Honorable Mention: Chris Sale 
We can analyze this one pretty simply. If Sale remains healthy, he's among the best starters in the league.
Relief Pitchers
Ryan Helsley 
– ADP around 115
Why he's overperformed: Helsley entered the 2024 season having shown he was capable of being a full-time closer, but whether due to managerial choices or his health he hadn't delivered those results. He entered the season with 35 career saves, yet already has 31 this season. Helsley was selected early in drafts, but he's been arguably the second-best closer this season behind Emmanuel Clase. That would cut his ADP in half.
Will it continue?: Helsley certainly won't be replaced as closer in St. Louis and he also won't be traded unless the Cardinals have a disastrous rest of July. That's the primary driver of his value, but he also hasn't been lucky in terms of ratios. His xERA and SIERA both reflect a very good pitcher and his swinging strike rate suggests he's gotten unlucky generating whiffs.
Robert Suarez 
– ADP around 200
Why he's overperformed: Suarez emerged from a number of potential candidates to take the closer gig in San Diego to start the season and hasn't looked back. The Padres have also been better than anticipated, which has allowed him to rack up 21 saves.
Will it continue?: Readers may notice that there was no mention of Suarez's ratios in the section that discusses why he's performed so well. That isn't to say his ratios aren't superb, because they are (1.02 ERA, 0.76 WHIP). The problem is that they haven't been earned. Suarez has benefited from a .207 BABIP and 90.5 percent left on base rate. He should remain the closer barring complete disaster, but projections with an ERA in the 3.50 range are fairer for the rest of the season.
Kyle Finnegan 
– ADP between 230 and 240
Why he's overperformed: Finnegan has remained the Nationals' closer over Hunter Harvey, surviving an ambiguous situation during draft season. His skills have remained consistent in recent seasons, but he's already just five saves away from matching his career high of 28.
Will It continue?: We can copy and paste the analysis from Suarez, as Finnegan has been very fortunate as measured by left on base rate and BABIP. As long as the Nationals stay in the race, he shouldn't be at much risk of being traded, so he'll at least remain a source of saves and lock in those points.
