We're now a full month into the regular season and slow starts from players we were expecting to be contributors to our winning fantasy rosters are becoming a bit more glaring. For this week's edition of our points league article, we'll use the average fantasy points per game on CBS and the trending player roster rate tool on Yahoo to identify underachieving players that fantasy managers are starting to lose faith in. We'll then analyze what's gone wrong for each player, whether there are any signs of a turnaround and finally whether it's time to cut bait or show some patience with those players.
Before we dive into specific player analysis is that this list will not include first-round caliber, or otherwise elite, players that are off to a slow start. While there are reasons to be concerned about the likes of Corbin Carroll, Vladimir Guerrero and others, they aren't cut candidates. Instead, we'll be aiming a tier or two lower. Without further ado, let's dive in.
Fantasy Points Per Game: 1.9
Roster Trend: Dropped in 846 Yahoo Leagues
What's Gone Wrong: This one is pretty straightforward. Torkelson simply isn't making quality contact, which can be determined by a quick glance at his barrel rate, max exit velocity, or xwOBA. That alone wouldn't be all that concerning because he also struggled considerably in April of 2023 (54 wRC+, .249 wOBA) before turning things around. One potential reason for those slow starts could be weather. Detroit has played
We're now a full month into the regular season and slow starts from players we were expecting to be contributors to our winning fantasy rosters are becoming a bit more glaring. For this week's edition of our points league article, we'll use the average fantasy points per game on CBS and the trending player roster rate tool on Yahoo to identify underachieving players that fantasy managers are starting to lose faith in. We'll then analyze what's gone wrong for each player, whether there are any signs of a turnaround and finally whether it's time to cut bait or show some patience with those players.
Before we dive into specific player analysis is that this list will not include first-round caliber, or otherwise elite, players that are off to a slow start. While there are reasons to be concerned about the likes of Corbin Carroll, Vladimir Guerrero and others, they aren't cut candidates. Instead, we'll be aiming a tier or two lower. Without further ado, let's dive in.
Fantasy Points Per Game: 1.9
Roster Trend: Dropped in 846 Yahoo Leagues
What's Gone Wrong: This one is pretty straightforward. Torkelson simply isn't making quality contact, which can be determined by a quick glance at his barrel rate, max exit velocity, or xwOBA. That alone wouldn't be all that concerning because he also struggled considerably in April of 2023 (54 wRC+, .249 wOBA) before turning things around. One potential reason for those slow starts could be weather. Detroit has played 16 of their 30 games at home (through Tuesday) in a cold environment, as the average temperature in the month was a high of 58 degrees (and it would almost certainly be colder by first pitch and as the game progressed). Of their 14 road games, three were in Chicago, three were in New York, two were in Pittsburgh, and three were in Minnesota. Those aren't exactly balmy locations this time of year. Offense will pick up as the summer months begin, which should help Torkelson's production.
There are some deeper reasons for concern, though. Torkelson has been extremely passive swinging at pitches in the zone (64.6 Z-Swing%), which offsets his gains in strikeout rate. He also appears to be hunting for the long ball (55 FB%), which is ironic considering has hasn't gone deep this season. The Tigers also seem to be taking note of his struggles, as Torkelson has gone from primarily hitting second and third to begin the season to hitting fifth most recently.
Verdict: Fantasy managers are starting to lose patience in Torkelson, and it's hard to find fault in that. In an ideal world, I'd want to give him some time to turn around based on his ability to turn around a slow start last season. At the same time, this doesn't look like a year that he takes a step forward from his production in 2023, when he averaged 2.8 fantasy points per game. That was good for 23rd at the position, so his production should be replaceable in many formats.
Fantasy points per game: 1.8
Roster Trend: Dropped in 688 Yahoo Leagues
What's Gone Wrong: Like Torkelson, Torres simply isn't hitting the ball hard. Unlike Torkelson, his swing decisions have largely carried over from past seasons, which gives me more hope that things can change quickly for him. Torres has also been dumped down the Yankees order, as he's moved from the leadoff spot to primarily hitting sixth or seventh. There's more important context to that, however, as the move came at his request to manager Aaron Boone. Torres elaborated that he got frustrated by his lack of ability to get on base in front of the Yankees' star hitters, but that he'd like to get back to the leadoff spot this season.
Verdict: We have a substantial track record of Torres being a productive player and it's hard to imagine that he can no longer make hard contact. Hold.
Fantasy Points Per Game: 1.5
Roster Trend: Dropped in 510 Yahoo Leagues
What's Gone Wrong: Cruz is the most dire situation we've covered to this point considering his production relative to ADP. It's tempting to say everything has gone wrong, but the primary issue is his lack of hitting the ball in the air (57.4 GB%, LA 8.1). For the eye-popping exit velos and monster home runs we've seen from Cruz, he did hit the ball on the ground a lot while progressing through the minor leagues, but he has no history of a groundball rate this extreme. His 50% hard-hit rate and 116.4 max exit velocity suggest when that's straightened out, his results should change quickly.
There is some merit to the point that Cruz's profile is weaker in points formats as compared to roto due to his potential to derive a lot of his value from stolen bases. Some may be sick of the comp to Elly De La Cruz, but the duo are remarkably similar from a skills perspective. We've seen how De La Cruz has produced this month, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see Cruz do something similar for significant stretches of the season.
Verdict: Hold
Fantasy Points Per Game: 1.7
Roster Trend: Added in 569 Yahoo league
What's Gone Wrong: Not much besides the results. We can keep this analysis pretty quick. Bregman is an elite points league option and there is nothing in his skills profile to suggest that's changed, as his swing decisions and contact rates have been nearly identical to his career norms. This is simply a note to not panic.
Update: Right on cue, Bregman hit his first home run of the season Tuesday night.
Verdict: Hold
Fantasy Points Per Game: 2.4
Roster Trend: Dropped in 695 Yahoo league
What's Gone Wrong: The story remains the same for Hayes in that he either can't or won't look consistently hit the ball in the air. The one potential ray of hope is that Hayes' exit velocity on flyballs is 96.3 mph, in the same vicinity as Shohei Ohtani, Ozzie Albies and Salvador Perez. That's up four mph from his mark last season, but it won't do him any good with a groundball rate north of 50 percent.
Verdict: Drop
Fantasy Points Per Game: 1.7
Roster Trend: N/A
What's Gone Wrong: Arozarena's strikeout rate has spiked by five and four percentage points from the last two seasons, respectively, but that's actually not the biggest concern in his skills profile. It appears that he's lost bat speed early in the season. In three campaigns prior to 2024, Arozarena has never whiffed on more than 27 percent of his fastballs. So far this season, that rate is 31.9 percent. In that same span, he had never slugged below .473 against the pitch. In 2024, that mark is .250. His pull rate, another metric that could be a proxy for his bat speed, have also fallen off considerably from his career norms.
Verdict: At 29, it seems too early for Arozarena's production to fall off, but there are significant warning signs early on. Perhaps there's a nagging injury that hasn't been disclosed. There's no reason to cut him, but I would be willing to sell at a low point on his trade value.
