This article is part of our Mound Musings series.
Long one of my favorite angles for assessing pitcher values would be what I call "changes in latitudes" or basically the fantasy impact of a pitcher moving to a different team. It might be a trade or a free agent signing, but pitchers sometimes wake up for their new employer. It can just be a change in the coaching staff and a different approach, better (or worse) defense and/or run support, or the new surroundings can actually boost the pitcher's intensity and mound presence. It's not always easy to read, but there are occasionally hints.
Last week I discussed a couple of movers, Noah Syndergaard and Wade Miley, and there are likely to be other trades and signings involving arms like Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas and Johnny Cueto, but there has been quite a bit of movement already. Let's get to it and look at some starting pitchers who moved to new teams this past offseason:
Sonny Gray (Twins) – While these pitchers are listed in no specific order, I wanted to throw a couple names out right away as favorites of mine to benefit from a change in scenery. Gray is at the top of my list after a season filled with middling injuries and moving to a better team in a friendlier ballpark. He featured a solid mix of pitches he can consistently throw for strikes, and the Twins should provide better defense behind him, along with reliable run support. If he avoids the injury
Long one of my favorite angles for assessing pitcher values would be what I call "changes in latitudes" or basically the fantasy impact of a pitcher moving to a different team. It might be a trade or a free agent signing, but pitchers sometimes wake up for their new employer. It can just be a change in the coaching staff and a different approach, better (or worse) defense and/or run support, or the new surroundings can actually boost the pitcher's intensity and mound presence. It's not always easy to read, but there are occasionally hints.
Last week I discussed a couple of movers, Noah Syndergaard and Wade Miley, and there are likely to be other trades and signings involving arms like Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas and Johnny Cueto, but there has been quite a bit of movement already. Let's get to it and look at some starting pitchers who moved to new teams this past offseason:
Sonny Gray (Twins) – While these pitchers are listed in no specific order, I wanted to throw a couple names out right away as favorites of mine to benefit from a change in scenery. Gray is at the top of my list after a season filled with middling injuries and moving to a better team in a friendlier ballpark. He featured a solid mix of pitches he can consistently throw for strikes, and the Twins should provide better defense behind him, along with reliable run support. If he avoids the injury bug, I see him as a very useful fantasy contributor. He's not quite a No. 1, but I think he fits near the top of your rotation.
Yusei Kikuchi (Blue Jays) – Inconsistency has been the keyword attached to Kikuchi since he came over from Japan to join Seattle in 2019. The southpaw has a very lively arm, and is capable – at times – of dominating opposing lineups, but he loses his release point occasionally, allowing too many baserunners while hitters adjust and ignore the pitches he can't throw for strikes. He is moving from the AL West to a more volatile AL East, but at least he won't have to face the Toronto lineup. which should give him runs to work with. The team was solid defensively and just got much better with the addition of third baseman Matt Chapman. Look for more good times than bad this season.
Kevin Gausman (Blue Jays) – You know I couldn't write this column without mentioning my man Gausman. He has evolved in a interesting way. Most pitchers improve as they expand their repertoire. Gausman appears to be the exception. With the Giants, he threw more and more split-finger pitches (along with a very lively fastball), becoming virtually a two-pitch pitcher. That should be a red flag, but his splitter is so good, hitters can't square it up even when they know its coming. He generates a lot of swinging strikes and even more groundballs for Chapman (see above) to vacuum up. A tougher division in a more hitter friendly park, but I think he'll hold his own.
Robbie Ray (Mariners) – Pitching fans were reminded what can happen when a lefty with dominant stuff locks in and learns how to throw consistently for strikes. In Toronto, Ray locked in his release point and parlayed it into a Cy Young award-like numbers. Now he's in Seattle, and while the Mariners don't have the Blue Jays' firepower, the park is more pitcher friendly, and he won't see heavy hitting offenses quite so often. I really don't see a better season in 2022, but another excellent season is within reach. The key on draft day will be how many of your fellow owners have become believers. If there are still quite a few skeptics, he might come at a slight discount.
Carlos Rodon (Giants) – With Rodon it's all about health. I owned him in most leagues I played in last year, and he paid huge dividends. He was spectacular all season until "left shoulder fatigue" resurfaced in September. Having barely pitched the previous two years, perhaps it was just a case of him wearing down. I hope so. I protected him (with a very favorable contract) in all my keeper leagues. The Giants seem confident as they signed him to a two-year contract. Given his injury history, there is definitely a lot of risk, but a healthy Rodon is for real, and pitching in San Francisco just enhances his value.
Max Scherzer (Mets) – I don't know what else can be said about Mad Max. He has violent mechanics, but he piles up innings every year. Now he moves to New York. I am often skittish when a pitcher experiences the media attention in the Big Apple for the first time. Some don't react well to that pressure, but Scherzer seems to thrive on pressure. He joins a rotation headed by arguably the best pitcher in the game today – Jacob deGrom – but Max probably sees that as a friendly competition. He's 37-years-old now, and he'll surely slow down someday, but I hesitate to predict this will be the day.
Corey Kluber (Rays) – From 2014 to 2018, Kluber was one of the best pitchers in the game while leading the Cleveland staff. He logged more than 200 innings while notching over 200 strikeouts over each of those seasons, and seemed almost indestructible. He wasn't. He missed most of 2019-2020 before returning with the Yankees last year. He wasn't bad, but he wasn't the old Kluber. His velocity was down a couple ticks and his command wasn't as sharp. Now he moves to Tampa Bay where pitchers come alive. They are best known for bringing around young arms, but I'm willing to bet they saw something in Kluber to suggest he could return to his pre-injury form.
Eduardo Rodriguez (Tigers) – I have never been a big E-ROD fan. He has average stuff, and hitters seem to pick it up with some regularity, making him too hittable. His command is also a bit inconsistent at times. He's not bad, and there could be some bad luck involved, too (for example a .371 BABIP last year). The bottom line is Rodriguez has never quite made his way in fantasy rotations. Perhaps new surroundings will give him that boost? Stranger things have happened, but he's going to need to prove it to me.
Michael Pineda (Tigers) – I remember when Pineda first arrived with the Mariners. His stuff jumped and immediately caught my eye. I was looking forward to a pile of effective innings. Amazingly, that was 10 years ago. He has never eclipsed 200 innings in a season. Last year it was yet another mix of good, bad and hurt (thigh, forearm and oblique woes). His FIP of 4.21 suggests his ERA of 3.62 was somewhat generous, and his swinging strike rate (10.7 percent) and velocity (90.7 mph) were career worsts. He still shows occasional flashes, but they are fewer and farther between. He's now 33-years-old, so it's not impossible that he could find new life, but I think it is a longshot.
Steven Matz (Cardinals) – Matz has provided one of the most harrowing roller coaster rides in recent baseball history. He was once mentioned with pitchers like deGrom, Syndergaard and Wheeler when he first arrived with the Mets, and he flashed enough to warrant some optimism, but injuries and inconsistency have proven to be significant obstacles. In the pandemic shortened 2020 season, he posted a scary 9.68 ERA. Last year he bounced back to a more respectable 3.82 mark with Toronto, but, interestingly, the Jays, with oner of the most respected pitching coaches, declined to make him a qualifying offer this offseason. However, the Cardinals must see something still promising, as they signed him to a four-year deal. On draft day, the question is, do you feel lucky?
Dylan Bundy (Twins) – When will Bundy realize his apparent potential? Or maybe the question should be, will he ever? He looked like he could be a useful piece in Baltimore, but he never got there. He moved to the Angels, and in his first year with them things began to look up. Then last year, the wheels came off – again. This is a make-or-break year for Bundy. The Twins invested a lot to win right now, and the biggest challenge will be their pitching. Bundy is a key. If he performs, they have a realistic chance. He's not overpowering. He has to mix things up and hit his spots to succeed. The atmosphere is right. If he is ever going to make a positive impact, now is the time. I just can't fully endorse him.
Zack Greinke (Royals) – Greinke is returning home. He began his MLB career with Kansas City in 2005, and he pitched there through the 2010 season. Since then he has travelled far and wide pitching a lot of quality innings in several cities, but this might be his swansong. Last year with Houston, he posted a mediocre 4.16 ERA, and his command of his breaking pitches waned. Now 38-years-old, he doesn't have the velocity to pitch in the zone (his average fastball is 89 mph), so it's all about movement and command, and both are gradually deserting him. Maybe he has one more big season tucked away for his happy homecoming, but he will need everything to fall into place for that to happen.
