Mound Musings: Endgame Odyssey – American League

We are closing in on Opening Day and almost every pitcher is on the watch list. It has been difficult watching all the live baseball I want to see, but there is still work to be done. Many leagues have already completed their drafts. Others will be happening soon, but draft day is just the beginning of a fantasy season, and no place will likely offer more opportunities to profit than the bullpens.

Not that long ago, assessing a team's pitching staff heading into a season was challenging, but it was usually fairly consistent. Most teams would be fielding a rotation of five starting pitchers they hoped could pitch into the sixth or seventh inning, and a bullpen with somewhat defined roles. There would be a long man or two, in case the starter didn't get deep enough into the game, followed by set-up guys, charged with bridging the game to the closer. By now, most roles would be fairly well defined. This year, perhaps more than ever, is different.

Questions abound regarding the pitchers being ready to compete in games that count. With the abbreviated Spring Training, many starting pitchers aren't going to be fully stretched out, and traditional wisdom suggests pitchers may not get deep into games in the first month or so. Managing workloads could mean expanded rotations, shorter outings, occasional skipped turns and certainly a heavier reliance on bullpens, and that's our focus for this week.

The bottom line: The better teams (usually), with more quality pitching depth, barring injuries, are usually both more predictable and more productive with regard to providing useful fantasy statistics. Ideally, you could fill your staff with pitchers from better teams with the depth to maintain generally static roles for their bullpen arms. Unfortunately, those guys tend to be expensive on draft day and almost never appear on the waiver wire. That said, we need to look at teams that seem to be in turmoil, to hopefully find some bullpen value. This week we'll focus on the American League. Next week it's the National League's turn.

Let's review some AL bullpens with question marks as we dive into the 2022 season:

Mariners – We'll start with a "closer by committee" bullpen, which is an approach gaining popularity. Right away, I will say committees don't often last. Teams (and even more so their relief pitchers) would prefer at least semi-assigned roles. That said, the committee usually feels it needs time to sort things out, hoping a pitcher will step up and win the job. There are six M's pitchers who could lay some claim to the role, but I think there is a sleeper of sorts in the weeds. The favorites today are likely to be Paul Sewald and Drew Steckenrider, while experienced veterans Sergio Romo, Diego Castillo, and big-armed Andres Munoz, could also get a chance now and then. I think the team would eventually like to see Munoz claim the job, but he has missed most of the past two years after having Tommy John surgery. Looking down the road, he is the best bet, but what about this season? There hasn't been much chatter about Ken Giles, but Seattle thought highly enough of him to give him a two-year contract just a couple months after he had the same surgery. He's ahead of Munoz in his rehab, and he gets my nod to lead the Mariners in saves in 2022.

Rangers – Texas claims to have their closer, but I'm not totally convinced. However, I'm not seeing anyone who solidly profiles as the go-to guy since Jose Leclerc is out until at least midseason. Joe Barlow capitalized on his opportunity last year, saving 11 games (in 12 chances) while posting an impressive 0.83 WHIP and 1.55 ERA. He has a decent arm, but he walked 12 in just 27 innings, and compiled an unsustainable .154 BABIP, so there are clearly red flags. If Barlow stumbles, perhaps the auditions begin all over again, but last year's cast of characters, including Josh Sborz, Spencer Patton and Matt Bush is no more likely to succeed this season. Veteran Greg Holland doesn't really excite me either. There is, however, one recent signee worthy of monitoring. The Rangers signed Garrett Richards and have stated he will work out of their bullpen. Injuries have apparently derailed his status as a very impressive starting pitcher, but if I own Barlow, I want Richards as a handcuff, at least until Leclerc returns and proves he is healthy.

Athletics – The A's cleaned house this offseason (they probably aren't done), and they left the cupboard pretty bare, including their bullpen. The most popular candidate to close games is Lou Trivino, but he's more of a set-up guy who might get a chance. He doesn't profile as a closer in my eyes. The most likely internal options are probably Deolis Guerra or Sam Moll. Ummm. No. A once promising youngster with the Rays, Brent Honeywell might have been a thought, but his ongoing elbow woes likely rules him out. If I felt compelled to throw a dart, I might lean to Domingo Acevedo, who finally surfaced in Oakland after seven seasons in the minors. He's not a shut-down guy, but he did a respectable job in a handful of 2021 innings. Given a severe lack of standout alternatives, maybe we can consider a starter who might be more comfortable in a relief role. The fragile southpaw A.J. Puk looks like he could be bullpen-bound and he has closer-like stuff when he's healthy. It's not impossible.

Twins – To me it seems like everyone knows who should be closing for the Twins with the possible exception of the Twins. Taylor Rogers deserves the gig. Yes, there is still some bias against southpaws closing. I get that. And, there is certainly a temptation to use your best reliever when a critical point in a game arises before the ninth inning. I get that too. But Rogers is genuine closer material. There has been some discussion suggesting Jorge Alcala could finish games this season. He earned a save in the final game of the 2021 season, and he appears to have the raw skill set. He looks like a solid set-up guy who could pick up the odd save if Rogers needs a day off, but he has been slowed by a torn fingernail this spring. The rest of the pen should not challenge Rogers. Tyler Duffey and veteran Joe Smith should see key innings, but when the dust settles, Rogers should be one of the more productive closers in the AL.

Rays – I'm not what you would call a Rays fan, but I sure admire their ability to stay competitive in the rugged AL East. A smaller market team without the vast financial resources of their division rivals, they hang in there with pure creativity and nowhere is that more evident than in their pitching staff. Not surprisingly, they rely heavily on their bullpen, and it works. They actually do tend to employ a committee. They read the matchups and act accordingly. I had a guy in mind to name my primary Rays target, but earlier this week Pete Fairbanks suffered a lat injury that is expected to keep him sidelined until June at the least. That probably puts more weight on Andrew Kittredge. J.P. Feyereisen also intrigues me. I like his stuff and composure, while JT Chargois from the right side and Brooks Raley from the left will be counted on to bridge the gap between the starters and the endgamers.  

Red Sox – Just watching pitcher videos, you wouldn't expect the Red Sox bullpen to be on this list. Matt Barnes looks like a closer, and he clearly has closer stuff. On any given day, he is capable of undressing an opposing team's best hitters. However, there are other days where the boat springs leak. I really can't say with absolute certainty, but it sometimes seems like Barnes might suffer from a closer's nemesis – a long memory. His meltdowns generally come in bunches. Maybe some bad luck, or maybe just an off day, leads to a rough outing. It happens. But, a bad outing followed by a string of progressively worse outings is worrisome. I believe Barnes works through it. The Red Sox need him finishing games, and he has the tools to be very good at it. Others, like lefty Jake Diekman, are a useful pieces. Hansel Robles has been miscast as a closer at times but he could serve as a fill-in. Josh Taylor is competent. Garrett Whitlock, if he doesn't start, is another consideration, and there are even things I like about Hirokazu Sawamura, but Barnes is the guy to own.

White Sox – The White Sox really don't belong on a "bullpens in turmoil" list. They have a talented, and deep, bullpen led by IMHO, the best closer in the game, Liam Hendriks. I mention them here simply because they have the proverbial 6'0" 215 lb. gorilla in the room – Craig Kimbrel. I honestly don't completely trust Kimbrel, especially in a set-up role, but I can't see him on this roster for the entire year. Keep an eye on him. Someone is going to pay the asking price for him when things get desperate, and when it happens, the team's bullpen will be reshuffled. In the meantime, enjoy watching Hendriks pile up saves, and check out Garrett Crochet. He's not going to collect many saves, but his future is in the rotation anyway, and I love his stuff.

These aren't all the questions by any means, but they are some situations to watch. As always, we'll keep tabs on possible bullpen adjustments throughout the season in the Endgame Odyssey section of the Musings, but for now, there are some thoughts on the American League. We'll check in on the National League next week.