Mound Musings: Help Is on the Way?

Sunday, a couple weeks ago, as it always is, was one of the highlights of my season. The Futures Game is a showcase of exceptional talent, both in the batter's box and on the mound. I mean, where else can you see so many quality young arms, on their way up, and all pitching in the same place, and on the same day? It has always been a bit disappointing that they typically only throw one inning, and even more so that they shortened the game to just seven innings, but there are a lot of things to watch for.

In the past, I have dedicated a full edition of the Mound Musings to the Futures Game, but given the brief glimpses of the pitchers, I am going to include some observations on injured pitchers expected to make it back in the coming weeks. Both some of the pitchers who participated in the Futures Game and injured pitchers could be a help to fantasy teams as we head into the second half. Next week, we should be able to fill out some more roster slots as the trade winds pick up. Let's get started: 

The Futures Game Showcase

Reid Detmers (Angels) There were several pitchers I was hoping to see in the Futures Game with two being my primary focus. Demers has been soaring on my kid's list, and while he faced just two hitters, it was enough to get me even more excited. He threw what might have been the nastiest breaking ball of the game. He has only progressed to Double-A, but 97 punchouts in just 54 innings might convince the pitching-starved Angels they need to give him a taste at some point this year. 

Shane Baz (Rays) Baz was the other guy I wanted to see. When he initially turned pro, he was interesting, but his command wasn't close to where it needed to be. Enter the Rys factor. Word of significant improvement this year don't appear to be overstated. He has walked just 10 (against 82 strikeouts) in 56 innings, with his last three starts coming at Triple-A Durham. He has always had a big arm, and if he can continue to throw his whole package for strikes, he should be in the majors fairly soon.

Cade Cavalli (Nationals) The Nationals have been decimated with injuries (and general ineffectiveness) in their rotation this year, but I am doubtful as to whether Cavalli is ready to help. There is no question he has the raw stuff to eventually bean impact pitcher. That was obvious in his Futures Game outing, but he still struggles with command. He has walked 19 in just 24 innings since being promoted to Double-A Harrisburg. There is a very high ceiling with him, but I think he'll need a little more time to refine his delivery before being a good bet to help the big team. Put him on your watch list for 2022.

Nick Lodolo (Reds) A southpaw with very good stuff, and pretty consistent command is always going to draw my attention, and that describes Lodolo fairly well. He also pitched well in the Futures Game, and while his still at Double-A, there is a chance he could find his way to Cincinnati in the next couple months. Lodolo lost much of June to blister problems so he has accumulated just 36 innings this season, but his solid 53/7K/BB is certainly encouraging. The Reds need bullpen help, and he could possibly fit even though his future is in the rotation. A lot will likely depend on the next couple weeks as the Reds determine whether they might be sellers or buyers at the trade deadline.

And, here is the latest on some injured pitchers:

Think how you would have felt if you had come out of draft day with a rotation composed of the following pitchers. Giddy probably says it best for me. Now we find ourselves trying to decide which of these guys, if any, are likely to be a fantasy asset over the last couple months of the 2021 season. There are plenty more to consider, but this list is made up exclusively of starting pitchers, who when healthy and completely up to speed, could at least be in the consideration set to be Top 25.

Chris Sale (Red Sox) Sale is at the top of this list for a reason. If I am inclined to grab an injured pitcher for the 2021 stretch run, he's my guy. He is on time in his rehab schedule. He's made two rehab starts, and tossed 49 pitches in the last one. His velocity is already back, and perhaps most importantly, he did not walk a batter in that outing. Command is generally the last thing to come back, and his is not razor sharp yet, but it's getting there. The Red Sox have surprised everyone this season, and they are going to welcome back one of the best pitchers in the game very soon.

Tyler Glasnow (Rays) This looks like an all or none (or very nearly none) scenario to me. Glasnow was diagnosed with a partial tear of his UCL and a flexor strain in early June. Not long ago, Tommy John surgery was a forgone conclusion, but some pitchers are now taking a non-surgical route. The problem is, the jury is still out on how well that works. He was shut down from throwing for a month. He is playing light catch now, but hat is a long way from intense mound work. This is still uncharted territory. Ramp up too soon, and you risk blowing out the elbow and having the surgery anyway. If the Rays want a shot this year, they need many innings from Glasnow, and I just don't see it.

Jack Flaherty (Cardinals) On May 31, I ranked the Cardinals the favorite to win the NL Central. On June 1, following a Flaherty oblique injury, the Cardinals looked like an also ran that might be sellers at the trade deadline. That's how important Flaherty is. Obliques only heal so fast, but he is throwing bullpens, and appears on schedule to return in early August, and he could be in mid-season form shortly after. It may be too late to help the Cardinals this season, but six weeks of a healthy Flaherty could be a significant windfall for fantasy teams. Go get him.

Stephen Strasburg (Nationals) When Strasburg turned pro in 2009, I labelled him a generational talent – one of those guys who only come along every few years. I'm still there, but his spotty health history has certainly hindered his career. He has pitched just 21 innings this year (and pitched just five innings in 2020) as he struggles with a lengthy list of maladies. Nerve issues in his throwing hand, a groin strain, shoulder inflammation, and a neck strain have all contributed to anon again, off again, rehab schedule. He was away from mound work briefly, now he has resumed, butI think at this point he is probably a desperation longshot play in 2021 for fantasy owners.

Carlos Carrasco (Mets) When the Mets acquired Francisco Lindor over the off-season, Carrasco was another key piece of the package. He just hasn't been able to pay any dividends, at least not yet. Carrasco has been out all year with a non-arm injury. He suffered a strained hamstring, and it has been rather slow to heal, but it appears he is finally close, and it is happening at an opportune time. Carrasco has made three rehab starts, and with deGrom now on the IL, and Syndergaard not ready toe the mound, I think the Mets may lean pretty heavily on him sooner rather than later.

Shane Bieber (Indians) He didn't throw at all for about a month after going on the IL with a shoulder strain in mid-June. Multiple examinations have shown no structural damage which is obviously very good news, but the Indians are understandably being very cautious with their franchise arm. Bieber just resumed throwing, albeit soft toss on flat ground, so there is still a long way to go. His base mechanics could allow him to ramp up fairly quickly assuming his shoulder remains quiet, but the Indians aren't going to be in the playoff hunt, so there is no real reason to push him hard.

Luis Severino (Yankees) Severino experienced a breakout season in 2017, then followed it up with an equally dominant year in 2018. The bad news is he has pitched just12 innings since.  Lat and shoulder woes cost him most of 2019, then an elbow injury cost himnall of 2020 following Tommy John surgery. His recovery from that surgery has drug out longer than anticipated, being complicated by a groin strain, so the crystal ball is still pretty cloudy regarding his impact this year. He recently threw a 30 pitch sim game which reportedly went well, but the clock is ticking for 2021. Lat, shoulder, elbow, groin, all in the last couple years, has to make you skeptical regarding productive innings this season. Three years is a very long layoff. A couple five inning September starts?

Corey Kluber (Yankees) The Yankees rolled the dice on a couple high upside/high risk starters, including Kluber, going into this season. He was rounding into form, and looking good, including a no-hitter on May 23, but he left his next start with yet another shoulder injury in his next start and hasn't pitched since. The former Cy Young winner is 35-years-old now, and you know how unpredictable shoulders can be. He has been throwing and plans to get back on the mound very soon, so a veteran with his mound savvy could be productive going forward, but … Let's be realistic. It's your turn to roll the dice. He could give a fantasy team a huge boost, or he could be a non-factor.   

Noah Syndergaard (Mets) Okay, I'll say it. Thor will again be one of the elite pitchers in baseball. Unfortunately, it is unlikely to be before 2022.  He underwent Tommy John surgery in March 2020, starting a rehab clock that would have him returning to the rotation around June of this year. He suffered a setback – it happens – in May and just started throwing again in early July. He still has time to make it back this season, but his September innings could be more of an off-season "feel good" exercise as he builds back up, and refines his command in preparation for next spring.

Dinelson Lamet (Padres) In a perfect world, Lamet would join Yu Darvish and Blake Snell as the Padres playoff rotation trio, but things haven't gone as planned, at least so far. Darvish has dealt with nagging minor injuries, Snell has been the poster child of inconsistency, and Lamet has never gotten to full speed. He's been on the IL with forearm tightness for almost a month and still has no firm timeline for a return. He's running out of season, and it might be wishful thinking to count on a major contribution down the stretch. I think he'll be back, but workload remains a huge question.

Some Notable Rotation Happenings:

• The definition(s) of frustration? I watch Jordan Montgomery and see so many things I like, then one mistake, and he gets burned. Want more? How about the Yankees not scoring a single run in any of his last five starts. I maintain my membership in his fan club. Surely better days are ahead for him.
• I didn't include Jacob deGrom on the injured pitchers list above because he just recently went on the IL and it's still too early to project a return. Reports are he won't throw at all until the forearm tightness is gone. It has been nagging, but hasn't drastically affected his performance. Hopefully this is precautionary.
• In a year where many hyped young pitchers have struggled, I continue to be impressed by Seattle's Logan Gilbert. He started off slowly, but I kept seeing positive signs so I recommended sticking with him. The M's aren't going to overload him, but he appears to get more comfortable with each outing.
• Where do you go with Blake Snell? When he's on, he's an ace, but when he's not, he's a disaster. I find myself wondering how many pitchers lose the magic when Tampa Bay parts ways with them. His home/road splits are horrible (an ERA over 9.00 on the road) but even at home he is far, far out of synch.
• Here's a fun prediction. The Blue Jays return to the Rogers Centre in Toronto on trade deadline day. I expect this young team to put on an unforgettable show over the last two months of the season, and to get things off to a flying start, perhaps they can acquire Jose Berrios? Now that would make a statement.
• Another late addition to the injured pitcher's list, Miami's Pablo Lopez was just getting his groove on, but is now on the IL with a rotator cuff strain. That is an ominous diagnosis. The Marlins future success is based heavily on their young starting pitchers, so don't expect them to take extreme risks here.

Endgame Odyssey:

The Cardinals Alex Reyes just set a MLB record by recording his 23rd consecutive save chance to begin his career as a closer (he added to that before blowing one). He's got great stuff, no question about it, but 37 walks in 44 innings screams more regression. The Yankees don't trust Aroldis Chapman right now. You can't blame them. After a couple months of pure dominance, he has been anything but a closer. As I have been saying for a few weeks, if I own him, I seriously want Zach Britton as an insurance policy. On the other side of town, Edwin Diaz has also gone into a funk, recently blowing three straight save chances. This might be particularly worrisome since he has a history of not always faring well in stressful times. Trevor May could be a prudent add just in case. Nate Pearson is working his way back from a sports hernia, hoping to claim a spot in the Toronto bullpen to finish this season. He probably won't close, but if he comes out throwing strikes, he could collect high leverage innings for a very good team.