This article is part of our Mound Musings series.
We're baack! There's a new collective bargaining agreement in place and we're headed for a full 2022 MLB season. There has been considerable player movement the past few days, and we can expect a lot more prior to Opening Day. That means many teams (and players) are in a state of transition, so predicting fantasy value is quite challenging. Nevertheless, I already have some pass or play names on my draft board and I thought I would share some preliminary thoughts on a few of those guys. Let's get to it and look at some pitchers to watch on draft day:
Jack Flaherty (Cardinals) – I have been a Flaherty fan almost since his arrival in the major leagues. He struggled in 2020 but bounced back in 2021, so hopefully you were able to add him at a discount in keeper leagues, but if he's out there on draft day, he'll be right at the top of my list of targets. He posted good, but not great, numbers last season, but a couple injuries tarnished his peripherals. He suffered a strained oblique in May, tried to pitch through it, then suffered a shoulder strain – quite possibly from compensating for the oblique. But, beware the flashing red lights. It was just announced they are evaluating that shoulder. When fully healthy, he was as good as they get. I see him as an ace, worthy of a spot at the top of a fantasy rotation if healthy, but he can be
We're baack! There's a new collective bargaining agreement in place and we're headed for a full 2022 MLB season. There has been considerable player movement the past few days, and we can expect a lot more prior to Opening Day. That means many teams (and players) are in a state of transition, so predicting fantasy value is quite challenging. Nevertheless, I already have some pass or play names on my draft board and I thought I would share some preliminary thoughts on a few of those guys. Let's get to it and look at some pitchers to watch on draft day:
Jack Flaherty (Cardinals) – I have been a Flaherty fan almost since his arrival in the major leagues. He struggled in 2020 but bounced back in 2021, so hopefully you were able to add him at a discount in keeper leagues, but if he's out there on draft day, he'll be right at the top of my list of targets. He posted good, but not great, numbers last season, but a couple injuries tarnished his peripherals. He suffered a strained oblique in May, tried to pitch through it, then suffered a shoulder strain – quite possibly from compensating for the oblique. But, beware the flashing red lights. It was just announced they are evaluating that shoulder. When fully healthy, he was as good as they get. I see him as an ace, worthy of a spot at the top of a fantasy rotation if healthy, but he can be somewhat undervalued in some leagues. In my mind, an "ace" is a true No. 1. In a 12- or 15-team league, this guy needs to be a top 12 pitcher, and Flaherty qualifies. Barring injuries (cross your fingers), I want him on my staff. Play
Luis Castillo (Reds) – Regular readers may recall that I have waffled on Castillo, initially discounting him as more of a thrower rather than a pitcher. He had a big arm but could overthrow at times, straightening everything out, while failing to command his off-speed stuff, but he learned as he matured, and that command improved, so he won me over – at least to some extent – as things progressed. He fell back into bad habits early last year, and he was horrible in April and May. He turned things around over the rest of the season, ending the year with poor, but not horrible, numbers. I have two concerns. First, I am not a fan of such inconsistency, but I'm also worried about the Reds this season. The squad is in full rebuild mode. Based on his raw skillset, there will be those targeting him at draft time, but that inconsistency, in a very hitter friendly home park, pitching in front of a weaker team, is enough to chase me away. Pass
Chris Bassitt (Mets) – When your rotation features stud arms like Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer, it's easy to be optimistic, and the Mets recently added Bassitt to bolster that rotation. Last season, Bassitt went 12-4 with a 1.06 WHIP and a 3.15 ERA as a member of the A's. That certainly looks solid enough, and he'll be pitching for a better team in a relatively friendly park in 2022, so optimism is understandable, but I'm not quite ready to jump on the bandwagon. He relies on a mix of fastballs plus a slider and curve, but doesn't really have a change-up and that makes him look a bit more hittable. He has good command, and he is a bit of a bulldog on the mound, but I'm not sure he can justify his draft day price tag. I expect respectable numbers this year, but I have doubts that he will offer any real value, so I'm staying away. Pass
Jordan Montgomery (Yankees) – Over the course of a season I get to watch hundreds of pitchers. Most show at least some promise (they wouldn't be at this level otherwise), but there are often flaws that are difficult to overcome. Many of these pitchers have established themselves at their level, but occasionally a pitcher will toss hints that better things are ahead. Sometimes, much better things. That's what I see in Montgomery. His change-up is devastating, and he flashes the command necessary to take that next step. Southpaws often develop better command a bit later in their careers, and I think he's just about ready. I'm limiting myself to one "play" per team, and he almost lost his spot to Jameson Taillon, another arm with an exceptionally high ceiling, but Taillon struggles to stay healthy, so he's a bit riskier. Grab Montgomery. Play
Julio Urias (Dodgers) – In a system famous for developing standout pitchers, the high visibility Dodgers' Walker Buehler (strongly considered for this list) and Clayton Kershaw generally get more ink, but down the road, Urias might just be the best of the bunch. He spent time at the top of my Kids on Parade list, but injuries slowed his progress. He finally got healthy last year, and it was worth the wait. He went 20-3 with a 2.94 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP and 185 punchouts in 185 innings. The scary part is I think the best is yet to come. Urias displays consistently improving command of electric stuff, the kind of stuff that makes you wonder about things like no-hitters every time he steps on the mound. It's not often you see a closer's repertoire with quality off-speed offerings in a pitcher capable of pitching deep into games. Play
Wade Miley (Cubs) – I actually owned him in a couple leagues last season, and I enjoyed much of his successful campaign. However, I watched nervously each time he pitched, hoping things wouldn't unravel. The 35-year-old won 11 games, posting a 3.37 ERA in arguably one of his best seasons since 2012, but the soft-tosser struck out just 125 over 165 innings, so there is vulnerability. The Reds waived him at the end of the season, and the Cubs claimed him. He had a fairly reasonably priced option (which the Cubs exercised). Miley's command is respectable, but it has to be since he isn't going to dominate opposing hitters Still, he's just too hittable, and if he allows too many baserunners, he'll be a risk to get roughed up for big innings. Pass
Cal Quantrill (Guardians) – Not every pitcher worth pursuing is going to be an ace, and such is the case with Quantrill. He split last season, first working out of the bullpen and then transitioning to the rotation. He ended up with a 1.18 WHIP and a 2.89 ERA, which translates to a successful season. There are some concerns that he enjoyed some good luck in building those peripherals, like a low BABIP, and that may deflate his price a bit, but I liked what I saw as the season progressed. Cleveland has a good track record with developing young pitchers, and while he's not dominating, he did a better job of keeping hitters off balance as he acclimated himself to starting. I think he could be a pretty good addition to a fantasy staff as a mid- or back-of-the-rotation starter. Play
Chris Flexen (Mariners) – Flexen wasn't very successful in his initial innings at this level, posting weak numbers with the Mets, in brief auditions from 2017-19, but he spent 2020 in Korea and remade himself a bit. A different pitch mix gave hitters something else to think about, but he has just modest stuff, which looked pretty hittable as the season wore on. He's unlikely to be awful, but I hesitate to pay full price for his 2021 numbers. I think as hitters become more familiar with Flexen, they could begin to get his number and get more wood on the ball. Pass
Ranger Suarez (Phillies) – After posting eye-popping numbers in 2021 (1.00 WHIP, a 1.36 ERA and 107 strikeouts in 106 innings), Suarez is generating a lot of interest in 2022 drafts, but you might want to look a bit closer. It should be noted that most of those innings came out of the bullpen, and while he generally threw strikes and did a good job of keeping the ball on the ground, I felt like his pitches sometimes lacked movement, and I am skeptical regarding his secondary pitches being good enough to consistently get him deep into games (although he did go six or more innings in each of his last five starts in 2021) Bottom line, I think he could get by as a starter, but he looks better suited to a relief role in my eyes. Pass
Noah Syndergaard (Angels) – Draft day is always a joy, but I am prone to take chances on arms that have caught my eye despite some potential pitfalls. I have been a huge Thor fan from the first time I saw him pitch. Be aware, he might be a better buy in keeper leagues as Syndergaard attempts to get everything back on track following elbow surgery. He returned late last season, but pitched just two innings before the year ended. The velocity was there, but not surprisingly, his command was a bit rusty. It is likely to take some time for him to get all the moving pieces in sync, and he will no doubt face workload restrictions, but I expect him to take another step toward stardom as early as late this year or in 2023. I'm all in, and I can be patient. Play
