NL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week

NL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week

This article is part of our NL FAAB Factor series.

We have two goals for this article: 

1. Identify likely free agents and discuss their strengths and weaknesses.

2. Estimate how much of your $100 starting free-agent budget you should bid on them.

Bids in general are best guesstimates. With so much uncertainty at least initially, those values may be even greater estimates than usual. The FAAB chart below lets users easily see at a glance how certain players stack up against others and how much they should command in a variety of formats.

The chart, which is sortable by column (click on the header), include a very basic "player grade" column. This is a reflection of a player's skills and role on an A-E scale. An "A" grade is reserved for a high-impact prospect stepping into an everyday role.

If you have questions on players, I'm happy to provide my thoughts in the comments.

PLAYERTEAMPOSGRADE12-Team Mixed $15-Team Mixed $NL-Only $
Tristan BeckSFSPE$0$1$6 (same spec return bid)
Braxton GarrettMIASPD/E$0$1$6 (early spec return bid)
Domingo GermanPITSPE$0$1$6
Rhett LowderCINSPA/B$0$1$6 (spec call up bid)
Lance LynnSTLSPC/D$2$7$11 (upped return bid)
Steven MatzSTLSPE$1$4$7 (same spec return bid)
Ryne NelsonAZSPC/D$5$11$16 (upper value)
Jordan WicksCHISPD$1$4$7 (upped spec return bid)
Aroldis ChapmanPITRP

We have two goals for this article: 

1. Identify likely free agents and discuss their strengths and weaknesses.

2. Estimate how much of your $100 starting free-agent budget you should bid on them.

Bids in general are best guesstimates. With so much uncertainty at least initially, those values may be even greater estimates than usual. The FAAB chart below lets users easily see at a glance how certain players stack up against others and how much they should command in a variety of formats.

The chart, which is sortable by column (click on the header), include a very basic "player grade" column. This is a reflection of a player's skills and role on an A-E scale. An "A" grade is reserved for a high-impact prospect stepping into an everyday role.

If you have questions on players, I'm happy to provide my thoughts in the comments.

PLAYERTEAMPOSGRADE12-Team Mixed $15-Team Mixed $NL-Only $
Tristan BeckSFSPE$0$1$6 (same spec return bid)
Braxton GarrettMIASPD/E$0$1$6 (early spec return bid)
Domingo GermanPITSPE$0$1$6
Rhett LowderCINSPA/B$0$1$6 (spec call up bid)
Lance LynnSTLSPC/D$2$7$11 (upped return bid)
Steven MatzSTLSPE$1$4$7 (same spec return bid)
Ryne NelsonAZSPC/D$5$11$16 (upper value)
Jordan WicksCHISPD$1$4$7 (upped spec return bid)
Aroldis ChapmanPITRPC$2$7$11 (in case he closes)
Angel ChivilliCOLRPE$1$4$7
Tyler KinleyCHIRPD$2$7$11
Camilo DovalSFRPC/D$1$4$7
Porter HodgeCHIRPD$2$7$11
Jorge LopezCHIRPD$3$9$14
Andrew KnappSFCENoNo$4
Curt CasaliSFCENoNo$5
Adrian Del CastilloAZCC/D$2$7$11 (upped bid from initial)
Ivan HerreraSTLCD$1$5$9
Pedro PagesSTLCENoNo$5
Luken BakerSTL1BD$0$1$6
Joey GalloWAS1BENo$0$5 (same bid as prior)
Dominic SmithCIN1BENo$1$6
Thairo EstradaSF2BD$3$9$14 (same as prior)
Jose FerminSTL2BENoNo$5
Nick GonzalesPIT2BDNo$0$6
Luis GuillormeAZ2BENo$0$6
Connor NorbyMIA2BC$2$7$11 (upside)
Chris TaylorLA2BD/ENo$0$5 (lowered return bid)
Yuli GurrielATL3BENo$0$5
Gio UrshelaATL3BD$1$5$9
Tommy EdmanLASSC$3$9$14 (same return bid)
Mason McCoySDSSD/ENo$0$6
Tyler WadeSDSSENoNo$4
Amed RosarioCINSSD$0$2$7
Luis VazquezCHISSDNo$1$6
Dylan CrewsWASOFA/B$7$14$22 (up if think he hits ground running)
David PeraltaSDOFD$5$11Rostered
Blake PerkinsMILOFD$1$4$7

STARTING PITCHER

Tristan Beck, Giants: Beck, returning from surgery on Mar. 3 to address an upper right arm aneurysm, struck out four and allowed four earned runs on five hits and no walks over three innings in a rehab start last Sunday with Triple-A Sacramento. He made 33 appearances in the majors last season and would likely work out of the Giants' bullpen rather than the rotation if/once he returns. However, Beck could end up starting if Hayden Birdsong's struggles continue. 12-team Mixed: $0, 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team NL: $6 (same spec return bid)

Braxton Garrett, Marlins: Garrett, sidelined since Jun. 23 with a strained left forearm flexor, threw a 25-pitch bullpen session on Friday - his second overall - and is scheduled to complete another one Tuesday. He'll likely have to face hitters and be sent out on a rehab assignment before being activated from the 60-day injured list. Barring a setback, Garrett is a few weeks away from rejoining the parent club. 12-team Mixed: $0, 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team NL: $6 (early spec return bid)

Domingo German, Pirates: German allowed three hits and four walks while striking out four over six scoreless innings on Wednesday. The 31-year-old righty has only given up two runs through 12 innings this year with the Pirates while posting a 1.00 WHIP with eight strikeouts. Those numbers are a stark contrast from what German achieved in the minors as he notched a 5.29 ERA across 68 innings starting at Triple-A Indianapolis. With Jared Jones (lat) nearing a return, German figures to head back to a swing role in Pittsburgh. 12-team Mixed: $0, 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team NL: $6 

Rhett Lowder, Reds: Lowder, a 2023 first-rounder, pitched at his third level Thursday following a recent promotion. He produced a 2.49 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 29:6 K:BB from 25.1 innings five Midwest League starts at High-A Dayton to earn the move up to Double-A Chattanooga. Lowder initially struggled there, though eventually collected a 1.06 ERA, 0.79 WHIP and 29:7 K:BB over 34 frames covering six starts. He was brilliant in his first outing for Louisville with six scoreless innings while only conceding three hits and striking out seven. Lowder's improved breaking ball, which is described as a sweeper, has aided him against lefties. That along with the right-hander's changeup and two-seamer helps in that area. Lowder could be a September call-up if he continues to excel at Triple-A. 12-team Mixed: $0, 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team NL: $6 (spec call up bid)

Lance Lynn, Cardinals: Lynn was placed on the 15-day IL on Jul. 31 with right knee inflammation. Imaging came back clean and he's been working his way back. Lynn threw a three-inning equivalent session of live batting practice Tuesday and is scheduled for another outing Monday before likely being activated and rejoining the Cards' rotation. An 11-run disaster against the Nats at the start of July is still hurting his numbers, though he only gave up two runs or fewer in each of the other five starts before getting hurt while winning four and lasting at least five innings. Lynn has recorded a 4.06 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 97:41 K:BB through 106.1 innings. 12-team Mixed: $2, 15-team Mixed: $7; 12-team NL: $11 (upped return bid)

Steven Matz Cardinals: Matz, on the injured list since May 3 due to a lower-back strain, made his fourth and probably final minor-league rehab start Wednesday. He surrendered four earned runs on nine hits and three walks while striking out five on 85 pitches - 53 for strikes - at Triple-A Memphis against Charlotte. Matz had to be pulled off his initial rehab assignment in June following a setback. He threw a bullpen session in mid-July, paving the way for this current rehab stint. Matz will likely rejoin the rotation, though it's not clear who will be the odd-man out especially with Lance Lynn also close to coming back, so he could end up being used in the pen. 12-team Mixed: $1, 15-team Mixed: $4; 12-team NL: $7 (same spec return bid)

Ryne Nelson, Diamondbacks: Nelson is remaining in the Arizona rotation with Jordan Montgomery moved to the bullpen. Arizona had been using a six-man rotation with both of them starting, but have returned to a standard setup of five. Monty has been brutal in the Desert while Nelson - who posted a 2.73 ERA and 55:11 K:BB over 56 innings since the beginning of July prior to his Friday appearances - has earned his spot. He picked up the win Friday as he gave up two runs on five hits and a walk while fanning seven over six innings. 12-team Mixed: $5, 15-team Mixed: $11; 12-team NL: $16 (upped value)

Jordan Wicks, Cubs: Wicks, who went on the IL in mid-June with a Grade 2 right oblique strain, struck out four while allowing one hit and no walks over four scoreless innings and 53 pitches in his rehab start Tuesday with Triple-A Iowa. After being tagged for 10 earned runs while walking four batters through 3.2 innings in his first two rehab starts with at that level, he showed much improved command and control Tuesday. Wicks will require at least one more start in the minors before being activated. When that happens, he could end up in the bullpen with five healthy starters available, though Kyle Hendricks would seem to be most at risk of losing his spot. 12-team Mixed: $1, 15-team Mixed: $4; 12-team NL: $7 (upped spec return bid)

RELIEF PITCHER

Aroldis Chapman, Pirates: David Bednar has conceded nine earned runs in his last nine innings with his ERA rising to 5.68 alongside a 1.35 WHIP. And despite 22 saves in 27 chances, he's picked up the loss in three of his last six appearances. If Bednar continues to struggle, Chapman - who's only given up one earned run from his last 12 appearances - could see save opportunities. 12-team Mixed: $2, 15-team Mixed: $7; 12-team NL: $11 (in case he closes) 

Angel Chivilli/Tyler Kinley, Rockies: Chivilli earned the save Tuesday with Victor Vodnik sidelined with shoulder soreness that ultimately landed him on the injured list. The rookie carries a 4.70 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 10:3 K:BB across 15.1 innings and could receive more save chances with Vodnik out, though may be second-in-line. Kinley tossed a scoreless inning Tuesday to extend his solid run since the All-Star break where he's maintained a 1.62 ERA and 0.78 WHIP to go along with an 18:5 K:BB In 16 games and 16.2 frames. His overall numbers are nothing special, but his fine recent run coupled with Vodnik's absence may mean he's next in line to close. Chivilli - 12-team Mixed: $1, 15-team Mixed: $4; 12-team NL: $7; Kinley - 12-team Mixed: $2, 15-team Mixed: $7; 12-team NL: $11 

Camilo Doval, Giants: Doval was recalled from Triple-A Sacramento on Saturday. What role he'll fill hasn't yet been determined as Ryan Walker has been excellent since taking over the closer role. Since being demoted to Sacramento, Doval has allowed two runs with a 5:1 K:BB over four innings of work. Just one free pass is encouraging to see as his 13.3 percent walk rate was a major reason why the Giants opted to demote him and installed Walker as his replacement. When he does rejoin the big-league bullpen, he could initially work in low-leverage spots initially while returning to his previous role could be an option. 12-team Mixed: $1, 15-team Mixed: $4; 12-team NL: $7

Porter Hodge/Jorge Lopez, Cubs: Hector Neris was designated for assignment and waived by the Cubs, creating an open spot at closer that is likely to be filled by Hodge and Lopez. Hodge could be poised to take over and he's looked the part this year with a 2.08 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 36 strikeouts across 30.1 innings. Lopez, who has been brilliant in Chicago after being DFA'd by the Mets, has produced a 0.83 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 23:7 K:BB from 21.2 frames and will also factor in for saves. Hodge seems to offer the higher upside between the two, though Lopez has now picked up two of the last three saves for the Cubs. Hodge - 12-team Mixed: $2, 15-team Mixed: $7; 12-team NL: $11; Lopez - 12-team Mixed: $3, 15-team Mixed: $9; 12-team NL: $14

CATCHER 

Curt Casali/Andrew Knapp, Giants: With Patrick Bailey (oblique) going on the IL Tuesday, Casali should operate as the Giants' clear No. 1 catcher. He provides little at the plate and could cede time to Knapp, who SF just signed as a free agent and last played in the majors during 2022. Tom Murphy, on the shelf since May 5 with a left knee injury that was categorized as between a Grade 1 and Grade 2 sprain, has begun a hitting and running progression and could be an option to return from the 60-day IL in September. The club is rumored to be interested in Elias Diaz, who was released last week by Colorado. If that happens, he'll become San Fran's new No. 1 backstop until Bailey is back. Casali - 12-team Mixed: No, 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team NL: $5; Kanpp - 12-team Mixed: No, 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team NL: $4

Adrian Del Castillo, Diamondbacks: Your window to add Del Castillo to your lineup is likely narrowing as a grand slam and six RBI Monday raised his fantasy profile. He got the nod when Gabriel Moreno went on the injured list supported by an impressive .319/.403/.608 line across 452 appearances at Triple-A Reno. Del Castillo is still splitting time with Jose Herrera, but his fine performance has earned him more work while Moreno is sidelined. 12-team Mixed: $2; 15-team Mixed: $7; 12-team NL: $11 (raised bid from initial call up)

Ivan Herrera/Pedro Pages, Cardinals: Herrera is expected to be promoted from Triple-A Memphis to replace Willson Contreras, who suffered a fractured finger Saturday and will require a stint on the IL. In 191 big-league plate appearances this season, he slashed .279/.340/.378 with three homers and four stolen bases. Herrera has recently been hot in the minors and likely will get most of the playing time with Pages earning the occasional start. Herrera - 12-team Mixed: $1, 15-team Mixed: $5; 12-team NL: $9; Pages - 12-team Mixed: No, 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team NL: $5

FIRST BASE

Luken Baker, Cardinals: Baken was promoted Wednesday as part of a series of moves by the Cardinals. He slashed .231/.345/.535 with 32 home runs in 108 games at Triple-A Memphis, which included a 1.096 OPS versus left-handed pitching. The 27-year-old is blocked by Paul Goldschmidt at first, but figures to work at DH against southpaws and off the bench. Baker managed a pinch-hit homer Wednesday in his first game of the season for St. Louis. 12-team Mixed: $0, 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team NL: $6 

Joey Gallo, Nationals: Gallo, out with a strained left hamstring that has sidelined him since Jun. 11, was activated off the IL Monday after completing a rehab assignment with Triple-A Rochester. With younger players like Alex Call, Juan Yepez and Andres Chaparro playing well and Dylan Crews getting called up Monday, Gallo probably won't be the everyday player he was prior to the injury. But he could still mix in at right field, first or DH as needed. 12-team Mixed: No, 15-team Mixed: $0; 12-team NL: $5 (same return bid)

Dominic Smith, Reds: The Reds agreed to a major-league contract with Smith on Thursday. The Mets' 2013 first-rounder was recently cut loose by the Red Sox following the return of Triston Casas, but quickly managed to land another major-league deal. Smith only produced a .237/.317/.390 line during 83 games for Boston, though he has a respectable .747 OPS since the All-Star break. Smith could receive regular time at first and DH against right-handed pitching along with Ty France while Jeimer Candelario (toe) and Jake Fraley (knee) are out. 12-team Mixed: No, 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team NL: $6 

SECOND BASE 

Thairo Estrada, Giants: Estrada was activated off the IL Monday after being shelved for over three weeks with a sprained left wrist. He played his first rehab appearances with Triple-A Sacramento on Aug. 13 and only needed a few games to return. Now back, Estrada is seeing the bulk of the reps at second after solid campaigns in 2022 and 2023. 12-team Mixed: $3; 15-team Mixed: $9; 12-team NL: $14 (same as prior)

Jose Fermin, Cardinals: Fermin was promoted Wednesday to take the roster spot of the struggling Nolan Gorman, who was optioned to Triple-A Memphis. The 25-year-old offers St. Louis a backup option at second, third and shortstop and could start versus left-handed pitching. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team NL: $5

Nick Gonzales, Pirates: Gonzales was placed on the 10-day IL Jul. 28 with a strained groin and began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Indianapolis on Tuesday. He got off to a hot start with a .280/.316/.439 line across his first 44 games, but dipped to a .533 OPS in July. Gonzales logged multiple games with Indianapolis and has been cleared to rejoin the active roster. Once activated, he'll compete with Isiah Kiner-Falefa for work at second. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: $0; 12-team NL: $6 

Luis Guillorme, Diamondbacks: Guillorme joined his third team this season after signing with Arizona this week. The D-Backs added him after starting second baseman Ketel Marte (ankle) went on the injured list. Guillorme is expected to be the backup at the keystone, though the lefty provides a useful complement to primary fill-in Kevin Newman - especially defensively. He's started three straight contests - all against righties - and holds short-term value while Marte is out. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: $0; 12-team NL: $6

Connor Norby, Marlins: Norby was called up from Triple-A Jacksonville on Monday. The 24-year-old registered a .594 OPS in his first nine big-league games with the Orioles and then slashed .300/.392/.522 with 16 homers and 13 steals through 80 games at Triple-A Norfolk. Norby wasn't able to replicate those numbers at Jacksonville with a .263/.300/.368 line over 13 appearances. He'll mainly appear at the hot corner, though he's capable of handling second and the corner outfield spots. Norby has gotten off to a strong start starting the last five games and picking up a hit in each with four going for extra-bases - including his first home run on Saturday. 12-team Mixed: $2; 15-team Mixed: $7; 12-team NL: $11

Chris Taylor, Dodgers: Taylor, placed on the IL Jul. 25 with a strained left groin, was activated Thursday. He appeared in five games on a minor-league rehab assignment and was deemed ready to return while Tommy Edman and Max Muncy also recently coming back. Taylor's window for consistent playing time is likely gone, yet he should see action at multiple positions. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: $0; 12-team NL: $5 (lowered return bid) 

THIRD BASE 

Yuli Gurriel/Gio Urshela, Braves: Austin Riley suffered a fractured left hand when he was hit by a pitch last weekend and may be sidelined for the rest of the regular season. To try and fill the void at third, Atlanta signed Urshela after recently being designated for assignment by the Tigers. He struggled earlier in the season by slashing .243/.286/.333 in 325 plate appearances with five homers and 37 RBI, though Atlanta lists a track record of picking veterans off the scrap heap and turning them into surprising contributors to a playoff push. Gurriel, who hadn't started at the hot corner since 2019, is playing there at Triple-A Gwinnett. He was signed to a minor-league contract in April and is slashing .300/.380/.498 with 12 homers over 72 games. Gurriel - 12-team Mixed: No, 15-team Mixed: $0; 12-team NL: $5; Urshela - 12-team Mixed: $1, 15-team Mixed: $5; 12-team NL: $9 

SHORTSTOP

Tommy Edman, Dodgers: Edman, out all season while he ramps back up from October wrist surgery, was acquired from St. Louis as part of a three-team deal before the trade deadline. He played five games for Triple-A Oklahoma City and produced his first homer before joining the Dodgers Monday. Edman should receive the bulk of his work in center field, but offers the versatility to line up in multiple spots while taking on a near-everyday role. Edman is included in this column because in some leagues he needed to be active before being eligible for bidding. 12-team Mixed: $3; 15-team Mixed: $9; 12-team-NL: $14 (same bid as prior weeks) 

Mason McCoy/Tyler Wade, Padres: McCoy was called up Wednesday to fill the roster spot created due to Ha-Seong Kim (shoulder) going on the IL. He reaches the bigs for the second time in his career after a previous stint with the Blue Jays late in 2023. The 29-year-old has enjoyed a decent year at Triple-A El Paso with a .260/.329/.382 line and 25 stolen bases over 432 plate appearances. McCoy was to operate as infield depth as Wade was expected to receive most of the playing time at shortstop while Kim is on the shelf. But Saturday saw McCoy cover his third consecutive start at the position as he's seemingly supplanted Wade. McCoy - 12-team Mixed: No, 15-team Mixed: $0; 12-team NL: $6; Wade - 12-team Mixed: No, 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team NL: $4

Amed Rosario, Reds: Rosario, traded to LA at the deadline, was DFA'd by the Dodgers and claimed by the Reds. He posted a .305/.331/.415 line with two homers and 10 stolen bases in 81 games between Tampa Bay and LA. Rosario will back up at second, short and third in Cincinnati and recently started in right with Jake Fraley (knee) out. 12-team Mixed: No, 15-team Mixed: $2; 12-team NL: $7

Luis Vazquez, Cubs: Vasquez, who had a brief cup of coffee with the Cubs in May, was promoted from Triple-A Iowa Friday. He slashed .263/.347/.432 with eight homers with a 1.095 OPS in seven games this month after returning from an undisclosed injury that sidelined him for six weeks. Vazquez offers a little pop in his bat and will be primarily at shortstop, but has also played at second and third. 12-team Mixed: No, 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team NL: $6

OUTFIELD 

Dylan Crews, Nationals: Crews, the second pick in last year's Draft, is set to make his big-league debut Monday against the Yankees. A six-week hot streak at Double-A Harrisburg slashing .292/.359/.474 with three home runs, 13 steals and striking out at an acceptable 19.2 percent strikeout rate earned him a June promotion to Triple-A Rochester. Crews has found his footing at this level after a somewhat slow start and will join James Wood in the Washington outfield after producing a .271/.343/.464 line through 48 outings with eight homers, 10 stolen bases and a 17.2 percent K rate. Alex Call was set to lose time in right field, then landed on the IL Saturday. By calling Crews up now, the team will keep his rookie status intact for next year in the hopes he earns the Nationals a bonus draft pick. 12-team Mixed: $3, 15-team Mixed: $9; 12-team NL: $14 (up accordingly if think he hits the ground running)

David Peralta, Padres: Peralta continued his hot August by going 2-for-3 with a steal, walk and run scored Thursday. That marked his sixth multi-hit performance this month and he's now hit safely in three straight. Peralta starts against righties with only 16 at-bats against southpaws this season and is batting .345 this month with nine extra-base hits, 13 RBI and 11 runs scored. 12-team Mixed: $5: 15-team Mixed: $11; 12-team NL: Rostered

Blake Perkins, Brewers: Perkins, who returned Thursday from a strained right calf after a short IL stint, is one of the beneficiaries of Christian Yelich's absence. Jackson Chourio, Sal Frelick and Garrett Mitchell represent Milwaukee's main starting outfielders. Perkins is the fourth one and has mainly worked versus lefties in either center or as DH. 12-team Mixed: $1, 15-team Mixed: $4; 12-team NL: $7 

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jan Levine
Levine covers baseball and hockey for RotoWire. He is responsible for the weekly NL FAAB column for baseball and the Barometer for hockey. In addition to his column writing, he is master of the NHL cheat sheets. In his spare time, he roots for the Mets and Rangers.
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