Orioles-Angels, Dodgers-Nationals & more MLB Bets and Expert Picks for Tuesday, April 23

Orioles-Angels, Dodgers-Nationals & more MLB Bets and Expert Picks for Tuesday, April 23

This article is part of our MLB Picks series.

MLB Bets and Expert Picks for 

Tuesday, April 23

YTD 28-34 (-2.39 units)

Prior article 2-3 (+0.08 units)  

Prior article recap

  • Phillies -1.5 
    • Going against the White Sox has been very profitable and it continued. 
  • Red Sox/Pirates UNDER 8.5 
    • Red Sox have an 8-0 lead and give up one run in the ninth to end up costing me the UNDER by 0.5 run
  • Nationals OVER 3.5 runs
    • Nationals scored three runs (pone in the 9th) and leaves me short by 0.5 run again.
  • Brewers ML 
    • Peralta looked good and the Brewers' pen came through big time with this 2-1 win.
  • PARLAY Phillies -1.5, Brewers ML, BOS/PIT UNDER 
    • The Pirates scoring the 1 run in the 9th screwed this one.

WEATHER IMPACT

Always check weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. 

WEEKEND/DAY GAMES MLB BETTING 

Lineups can get very tricky especially with day games after night games. I would caution about playing any totals (especially team) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game.

MLB Unit Betting Guide (Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet)

  • 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line strongest plays, System Plays)
  • 0.75 unit (ML/RL medium plays, Totals, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
  • 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
  • 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)

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Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins  

The White Sox have been the worst team in baseball record (3-19) and ROI -13.7 units after 22 games.  They are averaging 2.0 runs per game and the next-lowest team is Oakland at 2.8. They have set the record being shutout eight times in the first 22 games and lost 7-0 on Monday night.

Pablo Lopez is starting for the Twins and goes against Erick Fedde, who has been OK this season, but the White Sox just do not score any runs at all. The moneyline prices keep climbing in White Sox games so the run line is the only way to go here. 

Even though the White Sox are terrible, just keep an eye on the prices because eventually they will swing the other way and taking them will make sense, just not yet.

MLB Picks for White Sox at Twins

  • Twins -1.5 for 1 unit (PointsBet -114)

Los Angeles Dodgers at Washington Nationals  

The Dodgers just saw Patrick Corbin on April 16 and got him for five earned runs in 6.1 innings winning, 6-2. The team total is 5.5 and I am always leary about that and would rather look at a RACE to five runs or lay some heavy juice with an OVER 4.5 (-210) runs. The problem is this total opened at 9.5 and is sitting at 10.0.   

After looking at the race numbers, which were a bit high, I settled in on F3/F7 OVER on Dodgers team totals which present some risk, but the value is there. They should post 5-6 runs and most of them should come early against Corbin. 

MLB Picks for Dodgers at Nationals

  • Dodgers OVER 1.5 runs F3 for 0.5 unit (DraftKings -125)
  • Dodgers OVER 4.5 runs F7 for 0.5 unit (DraftKings +100)

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Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels  

The Orioles are 8-2 in Grayson Rodriguez's last 10 starts with an average score of 7.1-2.9 and the Orioles are 10-3 in their last 13 . Griffin Canning is 0-3 with a 8.05 ERA and the Angels are 2-8 in their last 10. Rodriguez is starting to become a strong AL CY Young candidate, ranking fourth behind Corbin Burnes, Tarik Skubal and Pablo Lopez

I rely a lot on trends for my betting analysis and the Angels are just 3-7 SU last 10 and 6-14 last 20 as home dogs. But the one trend that really stands out is the Angels are 0-10 in Canning's last 10 starts.   

This is my strongest MLB play on the season so far (in this article) with a 1.46u bet. 

MLB Picks for Orioles at Angels 

  • Orioles ML for 1.46 unit (FanDuel -146)

MLB Best Bets Today Recap

  • Twins -1.5 for 1 unit (PointsBet -114)
  • Dodgers OVER 1.5 runs F3 for 0.5 unit (DraftKings -125)
  • Dodgers OVER 4.5 runs F7 for 0.5 unit (DraftKings +100)
  • Orioles ML for 1.46 unit (FanDuel -146)
  • THREE-TEAM PARLAY – Twins -1.5, Dodgers OVER 4.5 runs F7, Orioles ML for 0.25 unit (DraftKings +463)

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael Rathburn
Known as “Rath” in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) community, he has helped run operations for two prominent daily fantasy sports startups. Michael has taken his insider knowledge and expertise in daily fantasy sports to the content side. Rath won the 2016 FSWA "Baseball Article of the Year, Online" award and was a finalist for the FSWA Best Baseball Series in 2011.
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