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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies
The Philadelphia Phillies take on the Colorado Rockies on the road today in the second game of this three-game National League series. These two teams have had polar opposite starts to this season, and completely different outlooks on the season. The Philadelphia Phillies have started this season going 37-15 and they currently have the best record in the league. They did lose the first game of this series, which was quite the shocker.
The Phillies came into this series winning 29 of their last 35 games overall so they have been red hot for a very long time now. They are 15-7 on the road and they have a +92 run differential already this season, which is tied with the Yankees for the best in the league.
The Rockies, on the other hand, are 17-33 on the season now, good for the second-worst record in the league this season. They are much better at home at 10-12, playing in the altitude at Coors Field. However, they also have a -73 run differential overall.
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The Phillies will be starting Aaron Nola today and he has been very good overall this season. He has been great his last two outings, pitching a complete game shutout against the Mets, and allowing just two earned runs in seven innings against the Nationals. Obviously, pitching at Coors Field is much different, and he does have a tendency to allow home runs. However, I still think he will have success today. Nola is also 4-0 with a 1.57 ERA on the road in four starts this season.
Dakota Hudson has been pretty bad all season long, to be honest. If the Rockies weren't dealing with some starting pitching injuries right now, they would likely have already demoted him from the starting rotation. He has allowed at least three runs in every start but one this season and he is 1-3 with a 5.03 ERA in May. Three of his four May starts have been on the road, too, so it's not like pitching at Coors Field can be an excuse lately. He has also really struggled with walks all season long with 27 walks and just 26 strikeouts in 44.1 IP this season, and he has multiple walks in every start he has made except for one.
Bryce Harper was ejected in the first inning of the game yesterdaym, so it is a bit understandable why the Phillies couldn't get anything going yesterday, but the Phillies are ranked sixth in the league in wOBA against righties this season. The Rockies are ranked 18th and that's with half their games at Coors FIeld. There is a pretty big discrepancy in the quality of the bullpens as well with the Phillies ranked 20th in the league, and the Rockies ranked dead last in the league in bullpen ERA. However, both bullpens are extremely worked and the Rockies' bullpen pitched pretty well yesterday so I want to avoid the bullpens today.
The Rockies will likely be without Nick Mears after throwing at least 28 pitches in two of the last three days, and they will likely be without Tyler Kinley, who has pitched two days in a row. Jake Bird and Daniel Bard are on the IL. The Phillies bullpen has been great for the last month or so, but it has been worked very hard and will be without multiple relievers. Jose Alvarado and Jeff Hoffman, their top two relievers, have pitched back-to-back days and three of the last four days, so they will likely both be unavailable. Orion Kerkering and Gregory Soto should both be available, but they have both pitched two of the last three days and might not be as effective. For that reason, we are going to play the first five innings only here for the Phillies and just avoid the bullpens completely.
BEST BET
Phillies First 5 Innings -0.5 -166 vs. Rockies (DraftKings)
