Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies & More MLB Bets & Expert Picks for May 24

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies & More MLB Bets & Expert Picks for May 24

This article is part of our MLB Picks series.

MLB Bets and Expert Picks for 
Friday, May 24

YTD 71-70-1

Prior article 4-2 (+1.67 units)

POWER OUTAGE

Scoring and home runs continue to be down and UNDERS are hitting at a nice clip. Oddsmakers have adjusted totals and we are seeing a lot more 7.5s and 8.0s. I will continue to focus on OVERS on pitcher-recorded outs at 15.5 or 17.5 as opportunities to get value. You can add unearned runs, hits allowed and strikeouts to the pitcher props I am focused on. Until we see a major change in offense with the weather heating up or major line/odds adjustments, I would continue to hammer pitcher props.

WEATHER IMPACT

Always check weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark.  As we enter the end of May, the temperatures and humidity are starting to rise, so keep an eye on if scoring starts to see an uptick.

BULLPEN USAGE

You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game, and the bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a F5 inning play. 

WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING 

Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution about playing any totals (especially team) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an UNDER.

MLB Unit Betting Guide (Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet)

  • 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals strongest plays, System Plays)
  • 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
  • 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
  • 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)

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Seattle Mariners at Washington Nationals  

I wrote about the importance of home/road splits especially when the home ballpark is extremely favorable to pitchers and I love to fade Mariners pitchers on the road. We get another situation where George Kirby has significant splits.

Home: 30.1 innings, 2.97 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 10.1 K/9, 0.3 HR/9

Road: 26.0 innings, 5.19 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, 2.1 HR/9

MacKenzie Gore is starting to come into his own and has not allowed more than three runs in any start this season. He is sporting a 3.30 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 54 strikeouts and 16 walks.

The Mariners are in an unusual spot as a road favorite as they have been underdogs in 17 out of 23 road games this season. Plus the Nationals have been one of the most profitable underdogs from an ROI standpoint. 

MLB Picks for Mariners at Nationals 

  • Nationals ML for 1 unit (BetMGM +135)

Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Rays   

Seth Lugo is continuing on an incredible run and is a sneaky pick for the American League Cy Young now. Lugo has a 1.79 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 58 strikeouts and 13 walks. He has really come on in his last five starts with a 44/6 K:BB ratio especially on the road with a 0.82 ERA and 0.64 WHIP.

The Royals are 12-6-2 to the UNDER in their last 20 games and their average runs per game is significantly different at home (No. 2 at 5.52) versus on the road (No. 21 at 3.95).  I can see this being a 4-2 type of game in favor of the Royals, which is why I will "double dip" on the side and the total.

MLB Picks for Royals at Rays 

  • Royals/Rays UNDER 8.0 for 1 unit (FanDuel -110)
  • Royals for 1 unit (BetRivers -109)

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Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals  

It is becoming an auto play whenever Shota Imanaga starts and I will continue to do so until I see an overcorrection on the prices or the league catches up to him. We get a significant edge on pitching with Shota against Miles Mikolas. Mikolas has a 5.77 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 6.6 K/9 and 1.5 HR/9 on the season.

The Cubs are 8-1 straight up and 7-2 to the UNDER in Imanaga's starts. He is 8-1 to the UNDER on his earned runs allowed and the Cubs are 6-3 on the run line.

There is some risk here with the weather, but the game just might end up postponed.

MLB Picks for Cubs at Cardinals 

  • Cubs -1.5 for 2 units (DraftKings +110)

Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies  

Laying -1.5 runs in a game on a -200 favorite with a 10.5 to 11.0 total presents great value when you compare it against most games with a total between 7.5 to 8.5. Cristopher Sanchez has only allowed 3.0 or less earned runs in eight out of nine starts. The scary part about Ty Blach is the strikeout rate or the lack thereof against this Phillies lineup that leads baseball in runs per game. Blach has struck out just 10 batters in 21 innings combined with a 5.14 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. 

While even a broken clock is right twice a day, even the worst pitchers have some good games so it is possible that Blach does something out of the ordinary, but this is not the spot for me and I will lay the -1.5 on the hottest team in baseball.  

MLB Picks for Phillies at Rockies 

  • Phillies -1.5 for 1 unit (BetRivers -132)

MLB Best Bets Today Recap

  • Nationals ML for 1 unit (BetMGM +135)
  • Royals/Rays UNDER 8.0 for 1 unit (FanDuel -110)
  • Royals for 1 unit (BetRivers -109)
  • Cubs -1.5 for 2 units (DraftKings +110)
  • Phillies -1.5 for 1 unit (BetRivers -132)

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael Rathburn
Known as “Rath” in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) community, he has helped run operations for two prominent daily fantasy sports startups. Michael has taken his insider knowledge and expertise in daily fantasy sports to the content side. Rath won the 2016 FSWA "Baseball Article of the Year, Online" award and was a finalist for the FSWA Best Baseball Series in 2011.
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