Regan's Rumblings: The All-Surprise Team

I have no doubt I'll leave off someone who you expect to see here, but this is my crack at the "All-Surprise Team" for the first part of 2019. Some of these guys have had solid seasons in recent years but are trending toward new heights, while others (Pence) have simply blown their low expectations out of the water.

If you don't see a guy here that you'd like a quick blurb on, please ask in the comments, and as always, thanks for reading!

C - Mitch Garver, MIN

Jason Castro and his .899 OPS still figure into the mix, but for now, Garver looks like the catcher to own in Minnesota. In 132 PA, Garver is hitting a robust .310/.394/.664 with 11 homers and a 9.8 BB percentage. The 28-year-old had a respectable .749 OPS last year, but everything about his profile screamed "backup material." He does have a .804 career minor league OPS to go with excellent ratios, including a 12.1 BB percentage and 18 K percentage, but he also had a .928 OPS in his last extended Triple-A stint in 2017, so he's shown the ability to get off to a hot start. Sustaining that is another question. Garver's batted ball profile is encouraging, including a 50 percent FB percentage and 46.3 percent hard hit rate, and though his 26.8 percent HR/FB rate should trend down, I wouldn't be stunned to see him with 20 homers and a .280 BA at year's end. Not bad for a guy with a 468 ADP.

1B – Josh Bell, PIT

After Bell dipped from 26 homers in 2017 to 12 last year, it was easy to see him making adjustments and trending back up in the power department, but no one saw .321/.388/.653 with 19 homers coming. Bell's walk and strikeout rates are actually down slightly at 10.1 percent and 20.2 percent respectively, but the power explosion is certainly unexpected. What does Statcast say about his 2019 season? Certainly, that the power is legitimate:

Bell is simply destroying the ball right now. Lots of scouts predicted future power for Bell despite his .151 minor league ISO, as he exhibited excellent contact stills with a .303 BA and 14.5 K percentage, and the fact he's listed at 6'4", 240 also helped. All signs point to this being a true breakout.

2B - Ketel Marte, ARI

Marte improved his ISO from .135 to .177 last year, but in 2019, he's taken things to a whole new level, batting .286/.341/.566 with 19 homers through 317 PA.  The K and BB rates have actually regressed a little, but are still fine at 7.3 percent and 15.5 percent respectively. I choose to think the primary reason for his 102 point bump in ISO is that he's married to Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s cousin, and anything related to Vlad turns to gold. All kidding aside, consider this a true breakout. The Statcast numbers are certainly revealing, including a barrel percentage that has more than doubled from five percent to 12.3 percent. Launch angle? Increased from 5.7 degrees to 11.2, and everything else is up as well, including his hard hit rate. I thought it was curious that the Diamondbacks gave Marte a five-year $24 million extension a year (2017) after he posted a .740 OPS in 255 big league PA. Now that's looking like a steal, especially considering the Diamondbacks control Marte through 2024 at very reasonable salaries. Guys is a stud and a 2019 All-Star.

SS – Tim Anderson, CHW

With 20 homers and 26 steals a year ago along with a subpar 86 wRC+ and .240/.281/.406 slash, Anderson had the look of a valuable counting stats fantasy guy, but a below average "real life" player. This year he's been both, and more, batting .315/.343/.485 with 10 homers and 16 steals. The negligible improvement from .166 to .170 in his ISO is offset by the huge increase in his batting average. How to explain that? Is it just that his BABIP has improved from .289 to an unsustainable .365, or are there other factors at play? He's walking at just a 2.8 percent clip, which is concerning, but he's also cut his K percentage from 24.6 percent to 19.9. Statcast has his hard hit rate up, though FanGraphs has it down, and though his barrel percentage and exit velocity are up slightly, his launch angle is down. Anderson is notably improved versus RHP, against whom he hit just .224 last year, but is at .326 this year through Sunday. I'm a bit wary of the low walk rate, and it's a rate that's been trending down since he drew his last walk on May 23. He has some raw ability, but if you sold high now, I wouldn't argue, especially in OBP leagues.

3B – Hunter Dozier, KC

Out since May 30 due to a side injury, Dozier should return this weekend sometime, and he'll return to a surprising .314/.389/.589 slash with 11 homers in 216 PA. Dozier entered the year as a career .228/.279/.388 hitter with 11 homers in 409 PA, but this year he has the same HR total in nearly half the PA with a Troutesque slash line (well, not quite, but still…). More than anything though, what jumps out to me is the improvement in his ratios. Year over year, Dozier's BB percentage has improved from 6.2 to 12 percent while his K percentage has dropped from 28.1 percent to a very acceptable 19.1. Dozier has pedigree as a former first-round pick, but we don't exactly expect a 27-year-old with a .738 OPS and 27.1 K percentage at AA/AAA to bust out like this. It's easy to be skeptical, but I really like a guy who improves his walk rate this significantly. I don't expect these current numbers to continue, but the newfound plate discipline suggests they won't crater either.

OF – Max Kepler, MIN

The Twins showed a lot of faith in inking Kepler to a five-year $35 million extension in February, and he's rewarded them by getting off to a .276/.357/.560 start. That was a lot of money for a .233 career hitter with average power, but Kepler is coming into his own in his age-26 season, and there were some signs last year, including a much-improved .745 OPS against southpaws (was .453 in 2017) and improving his year-over-year K percentage from 20.1 to 15.7 percent. That, and a BABIP that is up 30 points helps explains the BA climb, but what about the 100-point improvement in his ISO? He's pulling the ball a lot more and hitting it harder, so combine that with a barrel percentage that's up from 6.6 to 10.2 percent and a launch angle that's gone from 16.2 to 18.1, and you have at least some of that explanation. Kepler probably isn't a consistent 40-homer guy this year or in his prime, but then again, with those improvements in a 6'4" body, who knows?

OF – Bryan Reynolds, PIT

Regrettably for the Giants, while the Pirates deal for Chris Archer is a massive bust, they've at least made up for it partially with the Andrew McCutchen deal having netted Reynolds as well as their top setup man in Kyle Crick. After opening the 2019 season in Triple-A and hitting .367/.446/.735 in 13 games, the Pirates brought him up when Starling Marte got hurt, and now with everyone healthy, Reynolds is still around. The rookie is batting .364/.416/.562 with five homers in 195 PA. That's not a lot of power, and he won't help much in the SB department, but Reynolds has hit over .300 at every stop while striking out around 20 percent of the time and walking at about half that rate. He has a real shot to be a .300 hitter going forward, and at 6'3", it's possible the 24-year-old adds enough power to be a 25-homer guy in a couple years. For now, though, he's still a pretty good player and is even playing ahead of Gregory Polanco.

OF – Hunter Pence, TEX

My guess is that Pence is headed to the IL with a groin strain, and hopefully it's not too serious, as he's been a big part of the Rangers' early success. Pence is hitting a shocking .294/.353/.608 with 15 home runs after putting up a .590 OPS in his last year with the Giants in 2018 and looking pretty much done. Pence was once probably the most consistent player in the game, hitting at least 20 home runs and playing in 150-plus games for seven consecutive seasons (2008-2014), but he's never had a start like this one. Pence has reversed a declining walk rate with a decent 79 BB percentage, and his 21.9 K percentage is fine, especially these days. His .313 BABIP is reasonable, and he's truly hitting the ball harder with a career-best (easily) 46.3 percent hard hit rate. He's also getting the ball in the air at a 35.6 percent clip, and that mark is his best since 2013. Fangraphs does a great job breaking down his new stance and swing, and it's clear that though it's obviously him, he's made changes. I'll also note that he worked with Doug Latta over the winter. He's the same guy who helped Justin Turner land a $64 million contract a couple winters ago.

UT – Scott Kingery, PHI

A huge spring training last season (.411/.441/.786) netted Kingery a spot on the Opening Day roster and a six-year contract, but then things went south. He ended up hitting just .226/.267/.338, ultimately finding himself without a position and a spot in the everyday lineup. This spring, Kingery hit a modest .264/.328/.472, so of course now in the regular season, he's hitting .344/.385/.564 with eight home runs, and with 22 of his 42 hits going for extra bases. Kingery is playing CF these days with Odubel Herrera on administrative leave, and before that, he was filling in at third base for the slumping Maikel Franco. Kingery does come with some warning signs, primarily a 4.6 BB percentage and 25.4 K percentage, and his flyball rate is actually down a little. What has helped is a 25 percent HR/FB rate that may not be sustainable, but it's clear that he's hitting the ball harder:

The lack of even average plate discipline so far in his career is my primary concern, and even in the minors, Kingery had just a 6.5 BB percentage in nearly 1,500 PA, though to his credit, his 16.5 K percentage was also excellent. I think he's probably a .280/.330/.480 type of hitter once the dust settles, though that could come with 20 homers and 15 to 20 steals.

SP – Lucas Giolito, CHW

I wrote about Giolito last week, so I won't go too in depth here, but since that piece, Giolito has won his eighth straight start to improve to 10-1 with a 2.22 ERA and 0.95 WHIP, and in those last eight starts, he's done the following:

W/L: 8-0

ERA: 0.94

K/BB: 65:14 in 57 innings

Starters rarely go more than six innings these days, so for Giolito to be averaging a tick more than seven innings per start in this run is pretty amazing. I had quite a few Giolito shares last year at the beginning of the season when he proceeded to post a 6.13 ERA, so of course I have him nowhere now. It would be easy to say regression is coming when you see a 3.72 xFIP, and while sure, an ERA in the low 2's come late September seems unlikely, Giolito still doesn't turn 25 until July, and he's a former elite prospect and No. 16 overall draft pick, so we can't totally discount this. I also like the year-over-year improvements in his fastball velocity (94.1 mph vs. 92.4 mph), swinging strike rate (13.9 vs. 8.3 percent) and the vast improvement he's shown in his change.

SP – Frankie Montas, OAK

The regrettable Yordan Alvarez-Josh Fields swap aside, the current Dodgers' management seems to usually know which prospects to deal and which to hold onto. Right now though, Montas is helping make the Rich Hill-Josh Reddick swap look pretty good for the A's. In 14 starts over 82 innings, Montas has pitched to a 2.85 ERA and excellent 88:21 K:BB. His 96.5 mph average fastball is well over last year's 95.8 mark, which combined with a plus slider, has allowed Montas to get great results and improve his swinging strike rate from 8.6 to 11 percent. On top of that, Montas has also improved both his ground ball rate (from 43.7 percent to 50.7) and his hard hit rate (38.3 vs. 46.1 percent). Most notable is that Montas has swapped out a below-average changeup for a splitter that's graded above average and that he's trusting enough to throw 18.2 percent of the time versus just 2.9 percent for the change last year. Montas has had some durability issues in the past, but he has a starter's frame, and I'm leaning toward these results being sustainable.

RP – Shane Greene, DET

With Greene an impending free agent on a noncompetitive team, he seems a lock to be traded to a contender at the deadline. A team like the Dodgers would seem to be a great fit, but the opportunity is there for regression between now and 7/31. Sure, Greene has some great numbers, including a 0.96 ERA, 9.3 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, and improved 51.4 GB percentage, but his 4.01 xFIP indicates potential risk going forward, as does an unsustainable .174 BABIP. Much of Greene's success versus last year's 5.12 ERA comes in the form of a 0.96 HR/9, a mark nearly half of last year's 1.71 rate. To be fair, the bump year over year in Greene's GB percentage from 40.7 percent to 51.4 is significant as is his elite 27.8 percent hard hit rate, a mark nearly 10 full points below last year's 37.5 percent. Those aren't accidents, nor is a much improved 11.1 percent swinging strike rate (sub nine percent in each of the two previous years). As a fantasy owner, I'd probably try and move Greene now, as there seems to be a better than 70 percent chance that he's moved next month and likely to be a contender with an already established closer.